A word of advice and caution. When you buy a High Pe stock. Make sure that you are very certain about the growth. Plenty of good and bad examples
Eicher=Growth stopped, Got derated.
Pi Industries= At 52+Pe in 2015, growth continued (5bagger since then)
Symphony=Growth stopped as more competitors copied them, painful time correction.
Astral=Kept growing and entering newer adjacencies since 2015 when it was at 60+ Pe. (Been a 10 bagger since then)
Page Industries=Growth stopped as the company matured. No returns for last 4 yrs.
Bajaj Finance= Kept growing (barring Pandemic). Kept rerating with the earnings growth.
HDFC Life=Been absurdly valued since 2018. Leading to very poor returns.
Relaxo=Kept getting rerated on back of earnings growth.
High Pe means market is expecting strong earnings growth. What happens when it fails to come? Likely derating or painful time correction.
Paying a high multiple, you need to make sure that the growth is certain.
What I do to grasp such opportunities or to ignore them is to have a mix of deeply valued companies (like some financials I own) with Companies where I think they will grow at 30-35%+ (Navin).
This is what my framework is:-
Pf=High Pe+Already seen value+Strong earnings growth
And low Valuation+Earnings Trigger+Ignored by the markets.
Usually suprised by name's from either of the buckets.
Disc:- Not an advice. How I think of my investing philosophy
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Structural story is very much in tact for the Chemical and CDMO Businesses, Piecing together the mega trend some of the recent developments. Looking beyond noise, you can only do so if your work is original and conviction is built independently
Time for a thread🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵
Firstly, I invest with a horizon of 3-4 years. When I say it I do mean to follow my investing philosophy through, nothing against anyone. but if you are a technical trader, then this thread isn't for you 🙏
Let's look at the slightly longer term outlook and what has happened in the businesses operating in the Chemical/CDMO Space:
Some of the key principles of investing that have helped me in my journey.
Retweet for Max reach!
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Commandment 1
Investing is a game of probabilities and not a game of possibilities. First thing that is the most important is to adapt your investing philosophy to your own circumstances. Eg:- if you are able to give less time to research then it is foolish to buy
concentrated positions or companies that are just emerging with a higher allocation.
Commandment 2
This is the one where I have been burnt in the past. Hopefully I have learnt my lesson, always pencil in conservative growth estimates. Let the business beat your low
Why Indoco Remedies looks Interesting and why FY22-24 growth is likely to be stellar here?
Time for a thread🧵🧵🧵🧵
(Source for ophthalmics data:Nirmal Bang and rest is own work)
Looking at the incremental opportunity in Ophthalmics:-
Market size is not attractive for the Large Generic companies but for someone like Indoco which has a smalll base in exports business
As per the USFDA’s orange book, for Ophthalmic suspension drugs, only 3 out of 17 molecules have an active patent. Among the 14 molecules that are patent expired, 8 molecules are yet to see generic
competition.
After the wild success of Squid Games. Let’s understand how this show connects to Financial Planning and our 4 Key Takeaways related to it :)
Time for a thread🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵
RT For MAX Reach
First Lesson: Debt isn’t just a 4 letter word, it is slavery
-A small debt makes a man your debtor, A large one your enemy. All the participants in the game had borrowed debt and thus had to risk their lives to play. A large debt does make you an enemy for the other man.
Eg: Seong Gi Hun the lead protagonist had borrowed nearly 160 million won (1.01cr) from Loan sharks and 255million won (1.61 crore) from the Banks. Loan sharks chased him down, and made him sign a waiver of Physical Rights.
What all do I read to keep myself informed about new opportunities and to keep updating myself with the new happenings in the world?
Time for a thread about all tools I use to research,Find information and update myself about different subjects
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Blog Subscriptions I am subscribed to for investing:
1. @borrowed_ideas 2. Non-Gaap Substack 3. The Flywheel substack 4. Read The Generalist 5. Kiran D- has a blog on word press 6. Uncommon Profits 7. Used to read stalwart but they reduced the posting 8. @rohitchauhan