The job of an intelligence officer is to make probabilistic assessments about the intentions of foreign actors. The job of a US foreign policymaker or diplomat is to try to shape those intentions in ways that serve US interests. 1/THREAD.
If the IC assesses that the probability of Putin invading Ukraine is 10%, then the job of Biden, Blinken, Sullivan et al is to reduce that percentage to 5% or 1%. 2/
Those spending so much time arguing about probabilities should spend more time discussing creative ways to influence these probabilities, no matter if you think it's 70% or 10% probability of invasion. 3/
As a long-time observer of Putin (since 1991), and a previous consumer of top-secret US intelligence for 5 years, I'm skeptical of all assessments of his intentions. I don't know what he plans to do. You don't either. He himself has probably not decided himself. 4/ END THREAD.
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