A follow-up to my post that US cases are about to rise a lot, following Europe, and politicians will panic and impose economic restrictions and foster slower growth and more inflation.
We are told that a fully vaccinated person has six-months of protection. Then one should get a booster.
3/5
This version shows the percentage of the population over 12-years old that has been fully vaccinated in the last six months and has gotten a booster.
Hence, the percentage of the population that is fully protected.
4/5
The protected percentage is falling, meaning that more six-month vaccination periods are expiring than people are going to "recharged" with a booster.
It is now down to less than 35% of the eligible population.
5/5
Measured this way panicky politicians could argue the public is not taken advantage of the booster, and when/if cases do rise like Europe, my concern is they will conclude that more aggressive measures are needed.
See it will be our fault when the restrictions come.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
* BITCOIN PLUNGES MORE THAN 20% IN SATURDAY TRADING
As the chart below shows, BTC is still down about 11%.
If it closes here (midnight), this will be BTC's worst day since May and its fifth worst day in 2021.
2/6
BUT! ETH is only down 4.4% and it has seen 38 days worse than today.
3/6
BTC (red) has really lagged of late. It is way behind ETH (blue) and the overall market of coins (black).
In fact, BTC is now "only" up 26% YTD. The idea that BTC could lose money in 2021 is coming into the conversation.
This is the most important chart for the US right now.
Historically when one spikes the other follows. Now that we are a week past Thanksgiving, the US spiked to over 100k, a 2-month high and rising fast.
Is the US on its way to 200k over the next few/several weeks?
2/6
Current COVID policy is a disaster. It is based in one metric, panicking over case counts.
This is wrong but this is not going to change.
3/6
I noted this yesterday with Portugal.
They have an 87% vax rate, mid-90% range if you exclude under 5-years old (not approved yet), and yet their cases are going up and they are locking down.
Lost in the news this week has been the huge "kink" in the T-Bill yield curve between Dec 15 - 23. This is not a year-end problem as that would be a Dec 31 kink.
The market rapidly pricing in a technical default.
Notice how much it has moved since Monday (Nov 30).
2/3
Back on Oct 5 (orange) the T-Bill curve also had a big "kink" anticipating a technical default, then expected to be Oct 18 (or 12 days away). The next day Congress passed a $480 billion increase in the Debt Ceiling, extending it to "late December."
3/3
Now (blue above) the "kink" is even larger than Oct and instead of being 12 days away, the market has this more fear of a technical default priced in 13 to 19 days away.
The market's message ... "buckle up, it's coming."