1/5

A follow-up to my post that US cases are about to rise a lot, following Europe, and politicians will panic and impose economic restrictions and foster slower growth and more inflation.

@ErikSTownsend @EpsilonTheory @ttmygh @MishGEA @GeorgeGammon

2/5

Here is the vaccination chart again.

We are told that a fully vaccinated person has six-months of protection. Then one should get a booster. Image
3/5

This version shows the percentage of the population over 12-years old that has been fully vaccinated in the last six months and has gotten a booster.

Hence, the percentage of the population that is fully protected. Image
4/5

The protected percentage is falling, meaning that more six-month vaccination periods are expiring than people are going to "recharged" with a booster.

It is now down to less than 35% of the eligible population.
5/5

Measured this way panicky politicians could argue the public is not taken advantage of the booster, and when/if cases do rise like Europe, my concern is they will conclude that more aggressive measures are needed.

See it will be our fault when the restrictions come.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth

Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @biancoresearch

5 Dec
1/15

A longish tweet thread to highlight where I think we are with Omicron and why I'm worried about its implications for the markets and economy.

This is about the way I see it, not what I want.

@ErikSTownsend @EpsilonTheory @ttmygh @MishGEA @GeorgeGammon
2/15

The US reported over 61k cases Sat.

The data has a strong day of the week pattern. Y'day was the most amount of Sat cases in 3-mos, worrisome.

The 7-day avg is up 65% in the last week (green).
Maybe distorted from Xgiving, but as the top panel shows, this US cases are 🚀
3/15

My long-held concern is when one of these regions spikes, the other follows. This looks more and more the case in the last few days.

Restated, history suggests the US will follow Europe to new highs, or close to it.
Read 15 tweets
4 Dec
1/7

I've been arguing for some time, this is the most chart right now. When one spikes, the other follows.

So, with Europe spiking to new all-time highs, will the US follow?

History says yes.
2/7

Unfortunately, the US had another big day in cases yesterday. It was the second highest in the last two months.

See the orange line (the 7-day average), it is now going straight up and almost 120k/day.
3/7

And it is not just cases, US hospitalizations have started to turn higher.

And so have deaths, although some of this could be inconsistent reporting around Thanksgiving.
Read 7 tweets
4 Dec
1/6

Screaming red Bloomberg headline this morning:

* BITCOIN PLUNGES MORE THAN 20% IN SATURDAY TRADING

As the chart below shows, BTC is still down about 11%.
If it closes here (midnight), this will be BTC's worst day since May and its fifth worst day in 2021.
2/6

BUT! ETH is only down 4.4% and it has seen 38 days worse than today.
3/6

BTC (red) has really lagged of late. It is way behind ETH (blue) and the overall market of coins (black).

In fact, BTC is now "only" up 26% YTD. The idea that BTC could lose money in 2021 is coming into the conversation.
Read 6 tweets
3 Dec
1/7

What is the issue with inflation/the economy?

3 three charts to detail.

* Record consumption of durables (or "stuff").

Restated, the US economy has record demand. Not good demand, but record demand (bottom panel, distance above the trendline).

@kofinas @mercoglianos
2/7

To meet this demand Pacific rim countries are running factors as fast as they can.

The area in this chart is the trade deficit five years BEFORE COVID (2015 to 2019). Red is 2021.

Asian countries are sending us a record amount of stuff, way ahead of pre-covid levels.
3/7

40% of these shipments go to the LA and Long Beach ports.

They are also running at record rates, way above the five years before COVID.

We call it a bottleneck, and while that is technically true, "running at the limits of capacity" might be a better term.
Read 7 tweets
3 Dec
1/6

This is the most important chart for the US right now.

Historically when one spikes the other follows. Now that we are a week past Thanksgiving, the US spiked to over 100k, a 2-month high and rising fast.

Is the US on its way to 200k over the next few/several weeks?
2/6

Current COVID policy is a disaster. It is based in one metric, panicking over case counts.

This is wrong but this is not going to change.
3/6

I noted this yesterday with Portugal.

They have an 87% vax rate, mid-90% range if you exclude under 5-years old (not approved yet), and yet their cases are going up and they are locking down.

Cases go up, panic, and lock everything down.

Read 6 tweets
2 Dec
1/3

Lost in the news this week has been the huge "kink" in the T-Bill yield curve between Dec 15 - 23. This is not a year-end problem as that would be a Dec 31 kink.
The market rapidly pricing in a technical default.

Notice how much it has moved since Monday (Nov 30).
2/3

Back on Oct 5 (orange) the T-Bill curve also had a big "kink" anticipating a technical default, then expected to be Oct 18 (or 12 days away). The next day Congress passed a $480 billion increase in the Debt Ceiling, extending it to "late December."
3/3

Now (blue above) the "kink" is even larger than Oct and instead of being 12 days away, the market has this more fear of a technical default priced in 13 to 19 days away.

The market's message ... "buckle up, it's coming."

And every day this fear grows and grows.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(