Thread by @SGriffin_Lab

Right, have to get some things off my chest...
All entirely my p.o.v, lots of reading but no citations. Happy to be proven wrong, but I've done my own research...🤪
1. Of course the pandemic isn't over and wasn't a few weeks ago either...utter fuc*nuts who said so. Honestly...🤦‍♂️

2. Somewhat related to 1. No, it is NOT ENDEMIC YET, in the UK or anywhere else. I mean, if nothing else, our new friend Omicron is the equivalent of this to that argument...(couldn't find a gif with the big one, would you believe?!)

...but in all seriousness, we have nowhere near enough stability in terms of our population level immunity to outpace SARS2 evolution, prevalence is ridiculous, and this is having the predicted outcome in terms of severe disease, death AND long COVID, across all ages 😪

3. In light of this, Delta remains the major health threat in the UK and elsewhere, particularly in those countries pursuing a vaccine only policy (ahem). Why? Well, BECAUSE IT DISREGARDS CEV, LONG COVID AND UNVACCINATED PEOPLE, MAINLY CHILDREN whilst everyone else "gets on"...🤬

4. I've been accused by some, rather desperately I feel, of all things, of being anti-vax...on account of questioning 100% reliance on them as a strategy...my reaction is one of abject outrage, obviously, but mainly...

For the record, I have always said that vaccines are the way to come out of this nightmare one day, but no vaccine is perfect so if you rely on them too heavily, ultimately you limit their usefulness. This isn't rocket science...it's Swiss cheese...@MackayIM 🙏
Vaccines have def

changed the game, as you'd expect. We are no longer an immune naive population in terms of SARS2...whilst antibody levels may diminish over time, we will have cellular responses and immune memory, but as we're a genetically diverse race, this is nuanced and variable. This is a

strength at a population level as diversity in response will mitigate against immune escape, but it does sadly mean that a proportion of vaccinees may not have the right tools to fend off SARS2 if they're exposed. So, I come back to Swiss cheese again...
5. As I said recently,

cases DO matter. Infection and ensuing pathology is a dynamic process that results from the combination of a) viral characteristics, b) your immunity, defined by your genetics and, it seems critically, how you became immunised @Daltmann10, c) environment (drugs, gen health etc)

AND D) EXPOSURE. All the above generate a risk that the sad and unfortunate hazard of becoming seriously unwell...so if you are asked to repeatedly roll those dice, eventually even your triple boosted super soldier with all the right haplotypes and antiviral prophylaxis will roll

We see this in our daily figures, whereby our ridiculous prevalence at present translates into a reduced proportion of hospitalisation, severe disease and deaths. Not the case for long COVID, sadly, which continues to grow and must eventually be acknowledged by government as the

disaster that it is, and no doubt will become...
6. Vaccines are doing an INCREDIBLE job under the circumstances, literally being the only remaining slice of cheese, but when you consider the area under the curve for these sequelae, lasting as they have done for months already,

just because it's 30% of hospitalisations and 10% of deaths compared to January, day by day, I mean, wtaf?!
7. In turn, prevalence drives the need for massive booster campaigns, CEV being at risk long COVID, and of course as we're seeing, the yo yo effect of locking down too late

...but it also affects everything due to very simple maths, which even I can follow thankfully, and this is...fractions.
8. Essentially, what I mean is that % can just f*ck off when it comes to assessing risks at present, because the denominator is MASSIVE. This is why we cannot

dismiss COVID in kids, the "low" hospitalisations or deaths, or indeed the very small chance that SARS2 will regain the upper hand...(more in a sec). I urge politicians to deal in absolutes, to recognise how wrong this is going and how much better we could do...some certainly do

and the @AppgCoronavirus should be a follow for all...
9. For me the saddest consequences of the fixation on % and relative risks are around children. Look at the absolutes related to this, faithfully communicated by @jneill @TigressEllie @LongCovidKids @Sandyboots2020 @HoppySaul

and others. Anyone denying kids a vaccine and subjecting them to unchecked infection is just do wrong. Long COVID may not be the only future issue @adamhamdy @fitterhappierAJ ...I just pray that the worrying kids data for omicron doesn't continue...
10. So, omicron...why not?!🤪

Well, it's not bloody engineered, I mean, cmon...it's also a statement on how variability is as much about establishing and accommodating mutations as well as their generation.
It's clear, on paper and increasingly IRL, that it escapes humoral responses to a significant degree,

leaving a big hole in our remaining cheese slice. As a result, Rt is high due to susceptible population, but looks like it's possibly more efficient as well.
11. Is it benign? I seriously doubt it. ICUs are filling up with the expected lag time, sadly...including kids. Even if it

is, the sheer number of cases we are likely to see unless we do something will still translate proportionately into widespread severe disease (see 7/8). We may be lucky, recent triple vax may block infection and reduce severity further. Remember, viruses don't generally change en

route to acceptably low cost endemic diseases, we do...SARS2 is no longer seeing an immune naive population, but it seems to have the keys to the first lock...and what happens with increased cases and pressure? Adaptation...
12. So, is this really the race to run? Can we boost

every 5 months while SARS2 carries on globally? We've gone from Wuhan to Delta to omicron in less than 18 months...single, double, 3 or even 4 jabs. Of course vaccines will work, but we need to get ahead again in this race to let them help as best they can. Prevalence is a real

issue that we're just not dealing with...and don't get me started on vax inequality...over to @GYamey on that score...
13. Unlucky for some...I'd just like to express my disgust at the continued rhetoric advocating "natural" infection over vaccines. You know who I mean. Again, %

can do one, the price we pay for "most people" being OK is too high...I mean, what was Jenner thinking, creating a safe way to programme immune systems...honestly...
14. Lastly, please be careful comparing SARS2 with influenza...do surfers argue about which shark might attack? I

think not...this isn't virus top trumps, and we don't "accept" anything for flu...
15. OK, really lastly...it IS possible to make SARS2 a low level, low impact endemic virus in the future. Vaccines accelerate this, but if we lack patience the cost on all levels will be too high😪