Yes, it really does.
It matters because ignoring the consequences of this is what we, as a generally healthy society consider comfortable, rather than normal.
Reducing our assessment of all this to comparators with other countries, NHS capacity, ICU bed

bbc.co.uk/news/health-58…
occupancy, IFR, or even the % of people likely to develop long COVID is still essentially trying to rationalise human suffering, and doing it in a way that actually modern society depends upon in order to function.
After all, getting back to normal is a normal that accepts a
huge swathe of our population lives with often unclassified, unquantifiable and invisible disability that means they can never be as competitive, capable or successful as "normal" people.
The fact that so many people actually face this every day and still live wonderful, loving
and fulfilling lives, whilst also delivering consistent quality and above expectation outputs escapes many, or is patronisingly applauded as some battle hard fought...heroic.
Actually, those living with chronic illness and disability have had to learn the hard way that if there
isn't an appropriate yardstick by which their condition can be measured, then they either have to invent their own rationalisation of their condition, or accept that it will never really be properly acknowledged.
COVID has shone an uncomfortable light on this, beginning with the
idea of "throwing a protective ring" around those most vulnerable, extending to Great Barrington and then "but how many had underlying conditions", to the whole "with, not of", or X % will suffer outcome A, B, or C...
We see this as we seemingly accept >100 deaths each day
because "it's the same as with a bad flu season", or it "must already be endemic", blah blah blah...
Simple fact is that the vast majority of us never have to face the prospect of getting severely unwell, or inexplicably experience nebulous, vague, changeable and sporadic
symptoms that nonetheless are enough to severely impact every day life, and which we cannot possibly control. People suffering from ME, chronic fatigue and other long term conditions have dealt with this for years, often without recognition, and sometimes with huge cynicism. SARS
has thrust morbidity into the spotlight alongside mortality, yet still we focus solely on risk of death, on NHS capacity being overwhelmed, rather than on the tragedy that leads us to even contemplate such things.
Our ability to cope with something isn't how we should judge its
severity. Our entire concept of normal has long relied on ignoring the inconvenient elephant in the room that many people can't actually ignore their conditions, can't ignore the consequences of SARS2 infection, and can't rely on vaccines protecting them to the same degree as
most of us.
However, whilst shielding was necessary during the first wave, the fact that it has been seemingly randomly paused, reinstated, and abandoned says as much about our willingness to sacrifice the liberties of the clinically vulnerable as anything short of a senseless
declaration signed in a small American Town in 2020.
In fact, the more I think about it, the entire notion of "focused protection" illustrates how we consider vulnerable people to be an exception, an inconvenience that we should...and I quote...send to an island somewhere while
the rest of us build immunity. The idea that people's lives can just be put on hold so the rest can just carry on, seemingly without guilt or remorse, ignores the fact that these are people who love, are loved, and make outstanding contributions to life on this planet in spite of
their situation.
It's ironic that the somewhat rare times we've acted quickly during the pandemic is when we've realised it's "not just the vulnerable" at risk from alpha, Delta, long COVID, or waning immunity. The fact that boosters are being implemented while
the third dose cohort are seemingly left floundering with no guidance or surety on getting their jabs is a case in point.
Now, I'm a realist, I understand difficult decisions need to be made, and resources aren't infinite. But, to ask whether it matters that we continue to see
horrendous death and morbidity that are ultimately preventable, because "if not now, when", and "it doesn't matter cos I'm healthy and jabbed" I think should actually be rephrased. Instead, we should find new ways of understanding illness and it's impact, beyond the number of
ICU beds or positive cases. We should ask whether we should reasonably consider it right that our "normal" ignores the fact that many people's life simply isn't, and we should, I believe focus more on the fact that small relative risks or incidence together amounts to real terms
large and profound impact upon peoples lives and livelihoods.
I'm aware that many reading this will not have experienced directly people living with such conditions, or at risk from COVID or whatever, but perhaps this means we need to rethink how we measure quality of life when
people live with such health, and socio-economic inequality in these modern times - the two are often linked.
Perhaps when we hear about levelling up, getting back to normal, or even "living with the virus", there should be greater recognition that this should apply across the
board, and not just those who are, let's face it, already thriving.
I haven't even begun to relate the current situation to the damage done to younger people, acute and chronic, or the selfishness of antivax morons who would deny vulnerable people what little protection they may
potentially access, but I just find the whole comparative, quantitative, relative and selective way that we are justifying forgetting that we ARE still in a pandemic just staggering, and should instead make us realise that we should consider society as a whole as we move on to
what I hope can be a better way of thinking about public health...for everyone.
We run a considerable risk of broaching GBD by vaccines if we continue to follow our present course. We cannot corral people into convenient boxes...
...and I haven't even mentioned virus evolution😉
P.s. any semblance of insight here can be attributed to @lucy_prodgers

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More from @SGriffin_Lab

23 Sep
All this debate around schools and kids getting exposed to SARS2 needlessly is exhausting. But it's got me thinking...

It strikes me that there's a similar feel to the "kids don't get sick" thing (or at least not TOO many as to make those graphs we're all sick of shoot up too
quickly, or too much to make folks feel guilty..."'cos I've never known anyone die of COVID and my mate was fine")...sorry, I digress...
Yes, the sick kids, or not, reminds me of the "it's only the old folks, or the vulnerable, or the ones that don't look after themselves wot die
" brigade...
Now, huge apologies for the stereotypes, but much as I feel incredibly strongly that the lives of the people I've just described are just as important as everyone else...and, by the way may have a far tougher existence than many of us could EVER understand, I worry
Read 17 tweets
21 Sep
So...New normal, what does that look like? Have "we" made the best possible use of our excellent vaccines to minimise the impact of COVID in 2021...
I'm not a statto, this is just me gazing at the DHSC dashboard...
Compared to January peak:
1. Cases ~50%
2. Hospitalisations ~25%
3. Patients in hospital ~25%
4. Patients on ventilators ~25%
5. Deaths ~10%
Also, and this is inferred...
6. Long COVID incidence unchanged
7. NHS had no summer respite, staff exhausted and demoralised.
8. Lack of mitigations means flu, RSV, rhinovirus etc will join us shortly...
9. The average age of those severely unwell has come down due to vaccine, every silver lining has a cloud...
10. BUT, great to see 16/17 yo incidence reducing due to vax...it's almost like if we'd done it over summer we'd be WAY better off...🤔

So my question, given vax is very
Read 4 tweets
29 Aug
Right, so the most frightening aspect of this excellent piece from @d_spiegel is the increasing numbers of pregnant/recently pregnant women, with disproportionate numbers from minority ethnic groups, being treated in ICU for COVID.

Why is this happening?

amp.theguardian.com/theobserver/co…
Well, it may be complicated, but I strongly suspect that the poisonous, insidious and completely untrue rumours spread by horrendous anti-vax morons including Michael (racist, amongst other things) Yeadon have played a massive role here...

Whenever I engage on vax hesitancy, I
hear genuinely concerned young women reluctant to get the jab because they're worried by the 💩 that people like Yeadon have spread. Who can blame them? People like Yeadon use their past credentials (however much their present actions/views completely invalidate them) and a blend
Read 19 tweets
21 Aug
No, absolutely not.
Whilst this model may conceivably apply in the future, in my view this ignores some key issues.

1. This is a novel virus and we don't understand it yet.
2. Long COVID is HUGE

BBC News - Is catching Covid now better than more vaccine?
bbc.co.uk/news/health-58…
3. We know infection, even in vaccinees can leave tissues damaged. We don't understand this yet either.
4. We aren't used to dealing with virus pandemics, where the sheer scale of infection can mean things are different to the endemic viruses we are used to.
5. This is hugely
important because we appear to still be at the start of several possible trajectories for SARS2 evolution. This is explained brilliantly here by folks far better qualified than I...

sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/n…
Read 16 tweets
1 Aug
Much has been made of the following SAGE document, which has been reported in the media with a focus on some of the worst case scenarios within it. It has also been dismissed by some scientific commentators...notably not virologists.

Some thoughts...

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
1. Clearly, this is not a press release! It is obviously a response to a broad-ranging brief designed to cover as many scenarios as possible. I'm genuinely surprised it has been released in this format.
2. Some suggest that this report is intended to stoke fear, I disagree.
As above, this has clearly been written to address a specific brief. There's nothing scientifically inaccurate in there whatsoever, each supposition is backed up by plausible rationale. However, whether something might happen, or will happen is usually a combination of humans and
Read 33 tweets
17 Jul
This needs urgent resolution and I am obviously in favour of vaccinating kids. A reminder of why:

1. Kids are not invulnerable to COVID. We saw record paediatric admissions this week. See threads from @jneill and @ProfColinDavis

2. #LongCovidKids

theguardian.com/world/2021/jul…
3. We are already at high levels of infection, this is set to go much higher. Even a small % of a massive number is...a BIG number.

4. Vaccines are MHRA approved for 12+ in the UK. Trials support they are incredibly efficacious and SAFE.

5. Other countries are, successfully.
6. Whether they begin or propagate outbreaks/transmission, schools are a big problem and current bubbles are too big, causing immense disruption, especially since masks were arbitrarily dropped. Ignoring infection is plain stupid, so...let's prevent it!

7. Some have suggested
Read 11 tweets

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