Sick of gaslighting regarding the idea that cases don't matter.
It's criminal what's happening to young people and children, you know I believe that, but perhaps those wearing blinkers might consider how cases are eroding the amazing benefits our vaccines could bring, would that
register, I wonder?
One problem, I believe, is that most of us register changes rather than absolutes or gradual shifts in numbers. This is perfectly normal, it's how our nervous system works for one thing. Another issue is that "the steady upwards trajectory continues" is a lot
less newsworthy than sudden outbreaks etc. Yet, in a very short time since schools returned, we see ridiculous prevalence, plus hospitalisations and deaths at rates in younger people that really should make everyone pause for thought. After all, this is a mere sniffle to most,
and only affects the elderly, frail, clinically vulnerable, or people who's lifestyle "choices" apparently render them expendable...right?
Wrong. Reprehensibly so.

I digress. We're used to lots of amazing graphics and papers being posted here, but to illustrate my point about
how our chances of actually dealing with this virus are evaporating, I am just going to focus on three points in time and just gaze at the DHSC dashboard, as everyone on here can reasonably do...those times are the January peak, 1st May, and now...
Cases (specimen date):
Jan: 60-80k; May: 1357; now: 40-50k
Daily Admissions (lag of 2-3 wks):
Jan: ~4k; May: 101; now: 915
In hospital (as above):
Jan: 38k; May: ~900; now: ~7k
Ventilated patients (lagged again)
Jan: ~4k; May: ~120; now: ~800
Daily deaths (certificated, lagged 7 day)
Jan: ~1350; May:
~10; now: ~150
Weekly deaths (certificated, lagged)
Jan: ~9k; May: ~100; now: 972 (1st Oct, latest fig, 1110 week before, will climb).

So, given that we have incredibly good vaccines, the epidemic has shifted into younger people, we have better treatments, and the pandemic is
over, according to an article I saw recently, how on earth do we reconcile where we were at in May with where we are now?

Now, of course, we had restrictions in May, naturally, and we're all fed up. However, is there really any excuse to allow a vaccine preventable disease to
cause such harm when we know how to mitigate against it?
The tiresome, harmful naivety illustrated by last week's commons report where the virus is expected to jolly well behave just because we "had" a lockdown is just mind boggling. Before any lockdowns kill folks bundle in, let
me assure you that I'm entirely against them myself, and am aghast that we've required three...the fourth waiting in the wings...
Achieving protective levels of population immunity is difficult, but it's much easier when you're not seeing tens of thousands of new cases every day.
There could have been a reasonable balance between sensible precautions and mitigations over summer and now, buying time to vaccinate, reducing the threat to the clinically vulnerable, and, of course, minimising the dreadful wave of long COVID, about which the government cares
little, it seems.
The way out of this mess is provided by our vaccines, but if we can't get on top of transmission then we're simply not taking full advantage of them.
Where is the improvement to contact tracing we were promised? Why is govt advice just that, with no clear
guidance and no precautionary principle whatsoever? Where are the safety features in schools, universities, shops or offices that can allow people to interact as they naturally want to? Why don't we have regulated travel, both outgoing and incoming?
I'm building up to a virus
evolution thread at some point, but VOC aside, if nothing else can people not see how current policy and ensuing behaviour is actually countering the good effects of the vaccines? We're acting like there's no concern, despite breakthrough infections growing and widespread cases
in the unvaccinated...and I include children their, who ultimately have little choice...

We needn't have extremes, whether freedom or lockdown. We need balance and contact, luxuries and socialising, kids at school and everything else. But, please @BorisJohnson , do it safely 🙏
*there...bloody autocorrect!
This is what's needed...

theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Stephen Griffin

Stephen Griffin Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @SGriffin_Lab

15 Oct
The latest GBD/HART etc mantra is that vaccines don't stop transmission. It's also being echoed by some who ought to know better.
It's right that cax fares better vs severe disease vs protection, this is remarkably common for others as well. Think about it, protection is mainly
antibodies and the tissue resident cell responses. Severe disease is dealt with by your memory response etc in addition.
But why is delta causing infections with such frequency? Fair question. First, it's absolutely the case that most severe cases are unvaccinated...incl more
and more <18, mainly <16.
So, what dictates how thetge vaccines protect you? It's both you and SARS2. In simple terms and no particular order:
1. Vax efficacy, dose interval and time since dose.
2. Your age and genetics
3. Meds and underlying conditions, incl multi morbidity
Read 5 tweets
9 Oct
Yes, it really does.
It matters because ignoring the consequences of this is what we, as a generally healthy society consider comfortable, rather than normal.
Reducing our assessment of all this to comparators with other countries, NHS capacity, ICU bed

bbc.co.uk/news/health-58…
occupancy, IFR, or even the % of people likely to develop long COVID is still essentially trying to rationalise human suffering, and doing it in a way that actually modern society depends upon in order to function.
After all, getting back to normal is a normal that accepts a
huge swathe of our population lives with often unclassified, unquantifiable and invisible disability that means they can never be as competitive, capable or successful as "normal" people.
The fact that so many people actually face this every day and still live wonderful, loving
Read 23 tweets
23 Sep
All this debate around schools and kids getting exposed to SARS2 needlessly is exhausting. But it's got me thinking...

It strikes me that there's a similar feel to the "kids don't get sick" thing (or at least not TOO many as to make those graphs we're all sick of shoot up too
quickly, or too much to make folks feel guilty..."'cos I've never known anyone die of COVID and my mate was fine")...sorry, I digress...
Yes, the sick kids, or not, reminds me of the "it's only the old folks, or the vulnerable, or the ones that don't look after themselves wot die
" brigade...
Now, huge apologies for the stereotypes, but much as I feel incredibly strongly that the lives of the people I've just described are just as important as everyone else...and, by the way may have a far tougher existence than many of us could EVER understand, I worry
Read 17 tweets
21 Sep
So...New normal, what does that look like? Have "we" made the best possible use of our excellent vaccines to minimise the impact of COVID in 2021...
I'm not a statto, this is just me gazing at the DHSC dashboard...
Compared to January peak:
1. Cases ~50%
2. Hospitalisations ~25%
3. Patients in hospital ~25%
4. Patients on ventilators ~25%
5. Deaths ~10%
Also, and this is inferred...
6. Long COVID incidence unchanged
7. NHS had no summer respite, staff exhausted and demoralised.
8. Lack of mitigations means flu, RSV, rhinovirus etc will join us shortly...
9. The average age of those severely unwell has come down due to vaccine, every silver lining has a cloud...
10. BUT, great to see 16/17 yo incidence reducing due to vax...it's almost like if we'd done it over summer we'd be WAY better off...🤔

So my question, given vax is very
Read 4 tweets
29 Aug
Right, so the most frightening aspect of this excellent piece from @d_spiegel is the increasing numbers of pregnant/recently pregnant women, with disproportionate numbers from minority ethnic groups, being treated in ICU for COVID.

Why is this happening?

amp.theguardian.com/theobserver/co…
Well, it may be complicated, but I strongly suspect that the poisonous, insidious and completely untrue rumours spread by horrendous anti-vax morons including Michael (racist, amongst other things) Yeadon have played a massive role here...

Whenever I engage on vax hesitancy, I
hear genuinely concerned young women reluctant to get the jab because they're worried by the 💩 that people like Yeadon have spread. Who can blame them? People like Yeadon use their past credentials (however much their present actions/views completely invalidate them) and a blend
Read 19 tweets
21 Aug
No, absolutely not.
Whilst this model may conceivably apply in the future, in my view this ignores some key issues.

1. This is a novel virus and we don't understand it yet.
2. Long COVID is HUGE

BBC News - Is catching Covid now better than more vaccine?
bbc.co.uk/news/health-58…
3. We know infection, even in vaccinees can leave tissues damaged. We don't understand this yet either.
4. We aren't used to dealing with virus pandemics, where the sheer scale of infection can mean things are different to the endemic viruses we are used to.
5. This is hugely
important because we appear to still be at the start of several possible trajectories for SARS2 evolution. This is explained brilliantly here by folks far better qualified than I...

sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/n…
Read 16 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(