The latest GBD/HART etc mantra is that vaccines don't stop transmission. It's also being echoed by some who ought to know better.
It's right that cax fares better vs severe disease vs protection, this is remarkably common for others as well. Think about it, protection is mainly
antibodies and the tissue resident cell responses. Severe disease is dealt with by your memory response etc in addition.
But why is delta causing infections with such frequency? Fair question. First, it's absolutely the case that most severe cases are unvaccinated...incl more
and more <18, mainly <16.
So, what dictates how thetge vaccines protect you? It's both you and SARS2. In simple terms and no particular order:
1. Vax efficacy, dose interval and time since dose.
2. Your age and genetics
3. Meds and underlying conditions, incl multi morbidity
4. Virus evolution away from your immunogen (delta vs Wuhan)
5. Exposure, so either due to prevalence or high risk activities.

REACT 1 report this week showed very clearly that you are far less likely to be infected with vax.

Sad fact is that we are ignoring 4 & 5, and so also
3...
Allowing this virus to run unchecked COULD eventually undo a lot of the good that our vaccines can do for us.
We have no guarantee that we can keep pace like for flu.
If you insist on a model from another virus, try measles. Personally, I think we need vax + mitigations.

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More from @SGriffin_Lab

9 Oct
Yes, it really does.
It matters because ignoring the consequences of this is what we, as a generally healthy society consider comfortable, rather than normal.
Reducing our assessment of all this to comparators with other countries, NHS capacity, ICU bed

bbc.co.uk/news/health-58…
occupancy, IFR, or even the % of people likely to develop long COVID is still essentially trying to rationalise human suffering, and doing it in a way that actually modern society depends upon in order to function.
After all, getting back to normal is a normal that accepts a
huge swathe of our population lives with often unclassified, unquantifiable and invisible disability that means they can never be as competitive, capable or successful as "normal" people.
The fact that so many people actually face this every day and still live wonderful, loving
Read 23 tweets
23 Sep
All this debate around schools and kids getting exposed to SARS2 needlessly is exhausting. But it's got me thinking...

It strikes me that there's a similar feel to the "kids don't get sick" thing (or at least not TOO many as to make those graphs we're all sick of shoot up too
quickly, or too much to make folks feel guilty..."'cos I've never known anyone die of COVID and my mate was fine")...sorry, I digress...
Yes, the sick kids, or not, reminds me of the "it's only the old folks, or the vulnerable, or the ones that don't look after themselves wot die
" brigade...
Now, huge apologies for the stereotypes, but much as I feel incredibly strongly that the lives of the people I've just described are just as important as everyone else...and, by the way may have a far tougher existence than many of us could EVER understand, I worry
Read 17 tweets
21 Sep
So...New normal, what does that look like? Have "we" made the best possible use of our excellent vaccines to minimise the impact of COVID in 2021...
I'm not a statto, this is just me gazing at the DHSC dashboard...
Compared to January peak:
1. Cases ~50%
2. Hospitalisations ~25%
3. Patients in hospital ~25%
4. Patients on ventilators ~25%
5. Deaths ~10%
Also, and this is inferred...
6. Long COVID incidence unchanged
7. NHS had no summer respite, staff exhausted and demoralised.
8. Lack of mitigations means flu, RSV, rhinovirus etc will join us shortly...
9. The average age of those severely unwell has come down due to vaccine, every silver lining has a cloud...
10. BUT, great to see 16/17 yo incidence reducing due to vax...it's almost like if we'd done it over summer we'd be WAY better off...🤔

So my question, given vax is very
Read 4 tweets
29 Aug
Right, so the most frightening aspect of this excellent piece from @d_spiegel is the increasing numbers of pregnant/recently pregnant women, with disproportionate numbers from minority ethnic groups, being treated in ICU for COVID.

Why is this happening?

amp.theguardian.com/theobserver/co…
Well, it may be complicated, but I strongly suspect that the poisonous, insidious and completely untrue rumours spread by horrendous anti-vax morons including Michael (racist, amongst other things) Yeadon have played a massive role here...

Whenever I engage on vax hesitancy, I
hear genuinely concerned young women reluctant to get the jab because they're worried by the 💩 that people like Yeadon have spread. Who can blame them? People like Yeadon use their past credentials (however much their present actions/views completely invalidate them) and a blend
Read 19 tweets
21 Aug
No, absolutely not.
Whilst this model may conceivably apply in the future, in my view this ignores some key issues.

1. This is a novel virus and we don't understand it yet.
2. Long COVID is HUGE

BBC News - Is catching Covid now better than more vaccine?
bbc.co.uk/news/health-58…
3. We know infection, even in vaccinees can leave tissues damaged. We don't understand this yet either.
4. We aren't used to dealing with virus pandemics, where the sheer scale of infection can mean things are different to the endemic viruses we are used to.
5. This is hugely
important because we appear to still be at the start of several possible trajectories for SARS2 evolution. This is explained brilliantly here by folks far better qualified than I...

sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/n…
Read 16 tweets
1 Aug
Much has been made of the following SAGE document, which has been reported in the media with a focus on some of the worst case scenarios within it. It has also been dismissed by some scientific commentators...notably not virologists.

Some thoughts...

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
1. Clearly, this is not a press release! It is obviously a response to a broad-ranging brief designed to cover as many scenarios as possible. I'm genuinely surprised it has been released in this format.
2. Some suggest that this report is intended to stoke fear, I disagree.
As above, this has clearly been written to address a specific brief. There's nothing scientifically inaccurate in there whatsoever, each supposition is backed up by plausible rationale. However, whether something might happen, or will happen is usually a combination of humans and
Read 33 tweets

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