Colin Davis Profile picture
Dec 6, 2021 16 tweets 7 min read Read on X
Having another go at plotting UK omicron cases (previous attempt plotted total over time, which I decided wasn't very useful). Numbers are still sufficiently small to mean that noise in the data makes a big difference. But based on data so far, current doubling rate is 1-2 days. Image
This estimate could be too fast, if we've got better at detecting omicron over the last few days. Or it could be too conservative if it's getting harder for us to track omicron caes as numbers increase. Mix of imported and home-grown cases also unclear. So some caution required.
Updating this graph for 7th Dec. That line of best fit is still consistent with a doubling rate of 1-2 days (midpoint is 1.6 days). Things should get clearer in a couple more days. But we don't need to wait until then to introduce precautionary measures such as working from home. Image
There are additional data in the plot below, from a source with access to SGTF sample data. Alastair suggests a doubling rate of 3 days, but it looks closer to 2 days to me.
Here's an updated plot for 8th Dec. A doubling rate of about 2 days is looking more likely (data so far give a current estimate of 1.65 days, which has slowed slightly). Omicron would need to be a lot milder than delta for this not to be a big problem. Image
Interesting to compare the UK data with that reported in Denmark. Looks very similar. Seems likely that the numbers for 6 Dec reflect a lag and may be revised upward. Without that point, the doubling rate is 1.64 days (about the same as current UK estimate in the above tweet). Image
A bit more mathematical sophistication here, using the larger SGTF data set. Once again suggests a doubling rate of a little under 2 days (although the thread goes on to consider possibility of ascertainment biases which could raise it to ... 2.5 days).
Here's an update of this chart for 9th Dec. The number of cases that we find is only a proxy measure for the true rate of infection, but the rate of growth is what's most interesting. It sems to be converging to a doubling rate of less than 2 days (current estimate is 1.68). Image
@JPWeiland has also been tracking the UK doubling rate (h/t @ForesightWisdom). This graph offers a good illustration of why it makes a difference whether this rate is 3 days or 2.5 days or (gulp) 1.6 days.
Update for 10th Dec. When I started plotting this graph the general view seemed to be that the doubling rate might be as fast as 3 days. That shifted to "2.5-3 days", and then "2-3 days". But the data are converging on a rate of 2 days or less (current est. = 1.68 days). Image
Update for 11th Dec. 633 new cases reported today, following the trend line very closely. The slope of that line *still* suggests that cases are doubling every 1.68 days. It could be slightly slower -- and I expect it will slow -- but right now 3 days is ridiculously optimistic. Image
Update for 12th Dec. 1239 new cases reported today, slightly above trend line. The slope of that line *still* suggests that cases are doubling every 1.7 days.

Or maybe, as someone suggested, we should say UK omicron cases are doubling every 40 hours. That concentrates the mind. Image
While I'm at it, here's an updated version of this plot. Still waiting for any credible explanation of the claim that the actual doubling rate is 2.5 or 3 days. Image
Thanks, though, to @kallmemeg, for this correction, which clears up one source of confusion re 3-day doubling claims.
This projection is cases, so:
a) number of infections will be greater, &
b) we don't have capacity to measure this many cases.

In practice the rate of growth will slow, but in the short term this will largely be due to changes in *behaviour* rather than immunity. Image
Update for 13th Dec. 1576 new cases reported today, following the trend line. The slope of that line *still* suggests that cases are doubling every 1.7 days.

#Every40Hours. Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Colin Davis

Colin Davis Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ProfColinDavis

Aug 1, 2023
New opinion poll!

This poll is one part of a larger research project that @berglund_oscar, @SamuelFinnerty and I are working on about the impact of disruptive protest on public attitudes and policy. bristol.ac.uk/news/2023/july…
The project involves polling, interviews, focus groups & experimental surveys. We’ll have more to report later in the year, but one aspect of the results of the poll that's particularly noteworthy concerns people’s opinion about the punishment of nonviolent disruptive protesters.
The poll was conducted by @YouGov on 19/20 July. Respondents were asked which punishment they thought most appropriate for someone who participated in a nonviolent but disruptive protest such as blocking a road. Options ranged from no punishment to more than 1 year in prison. Image
Read 20 tweets
May 8, 2023
The arrest of charity volunteers raises serious questions about the role (& perhaps collusion) of rightwing media, police & politicians in the demonisation of protesters. This thread will report my attempts to piece together what happened & what it means. dailymail.co.uk/news/royals/ar…
The story starts with the Mail on Sunday, which ran a front page story on 23 April warning its readers about a a "vile plot" by "extremists" to use rape alarms to scare horses on Coronation Day. "Senior security sources" worried it could cause "serious injuries or even deaths". Image
The article initially attributes the plot to "Militant protesters". It then mentions organisers' fear of disruption by Just Stop Oil & reminds readers of other disruptive JSO actions. It also mentions Republic. dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…
Read 62 tweets
Apr 23, 2023
🧵Tens of thousands of people have been out on the streets of London since Friday, calling for #ClimateAction.

@morss_alex has been monitoring media coverage.

If you get your news from TV, broadsheets or tabloids, chances are you won't have heard anything about #TheBigOne.
But although you didn't hear about the tens of thousands of people protesting in London, chances are that you did hear about that one guy who jumped on a #snooker table in Sheffield.

None of this remotely surprising. It's yet another example of the #ActivistsDilemma in action. Image
When non-activists criticise groups like JSO for engaging in disruptive protest it's common for them to say they don't mind protest if it's done in a way that doesn't affect people going about their business. That's what activists have been doing this weekend. It doesn't work.
Read 7 tweets
Nov 14, 2022
I don't want to write a long thread on this, but I do feel compelled to point out a pretty fundamental problem with this survey. Michael Mann is a great climate scientist, but psychology is clearly not his field of expertise.
In this survey he asked participants whether disruptive actions decrease or increase their support for efforts to address climate change (or have no effect). Image
Questions like this are asking people to introspect - to examine the inner workings of their own minds. That's a problem, because we don't have access to those inner workings. You might as well ask people to introspect on how they recognise faces or how their lungs work.
Read 14 tweets
Nov 12, 2022
Here's an interview I just did with Ben Kentish on LBC about the impact of #JustStopOil protests.

The full interview was about 7 minutes; this is part 1 (1/5)
here's part 2 of my interview with Ben Kentish on LBC about the impact of #JustStopOil protests. (2/5)
here's part 3 of my interview with Ben Kentish on LBC about the impact of #JustStopOil protests. (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
Apr 14, 2022
I was one of the XR scientists arrested yesterday. I'll say more about that in due course but more urgently, one of us - Emma, who was on the front page of the @Guardian today - has not been released. The UK govt is making scientists into political prisoners. @damiengayle
I'm told that Emma is now protesting her continued imprisonment by refusing to eat or drink.

By way of context, IPCC scientists say "it's now or never" to turn the emissions curve downward. When will this government start taking climate science seriously?
Thanks so much to all those asking how they can help Emma. There will be a vigil outside Charing Cross police station tomorrow morning. I'm not exactly sure what time but will post it when I find out. Sadly I won't be able to attend as I'm now banned from London (yes, really).
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(