Thread by @ByCodyHills

(THREAD, I'M SORRY)

As I sat inside Lucas Oil Stadium, I started to feel that I noticed a trend in Iowa's offensive playcalling tendencies. Decided today to take some time to research ... and folks, did I stumble across something.

Come along for the ride. #Hawkeyes

We all want variety in playcalling. I think that's a shared desire among every fan of every team. Iowa tries to vary itself. It tries to break a "they want to establish the run on first down" tendency that's stuck through Ferentz's tenure - and it's worked a ton - but they try.

Iowa has thrown the ball 127 times on first down, more than second (123), third (118) and fourth (6). They're good there. They're trying to keep opponents guessing. Don't have the numbers in front of me (that'd take more research), but I'd guess ~70% of the 127 are playaction.

But it's what happens when Iowa doesn't succeed in throwing the ball on first down ... that's when the wheels fall off ... and defenses know before the ball is even snapped more often than not that the wheels are coming loose.

(keep scrolling, sorry)

Iowa is 66-of-127 passing on first downs this year.

Of those 61 incompletions, they've ran the ball 52 times on second down.

52.

So, roughly 87% of the time after getting nothing on a first-down pass, Iowa is coming back with a run on second down.

In theory, yes, if you're not getting anything, you want to get (hopefully) 3-5 yards on second down to make third more manageable.

But 87% is a biiiiiig tendency. It's sun-in-your-eyes level of glaring.

And it's a tendency that's only got worse as the year has gone on.

In its first 6 games, Iowa was at about 70% run on second down after an incomplete pass on first down.

In its last 7 games, which include play-from-behind (heavy throwing) losses to Pur, Wis and Mich, Iowa is running on second down after incompletions almost 92% of the time.

"OK then, Mr. Football Coach Twitter Wannabe Guy, how does Iowa fix this?"

Well, thankfully, a bowl prep period allows for 1) a chance to install new wrinkles, basically create your own new tendencies or 2) gives your opponent time to overthink that you will break tendencies.

As for the actual X's-and-O's, I think Iowa would behoove itself by shooting for higher-percentage, "safe" throws on first down. Limit the downfield shots. Limit the shots to Johnson/Jones where you're really only hoping for a defensive lapse, a flag or a highlight-reel catch.

Iowa *HAS* to stay committed to passing on first downs. It has to. That's the only way the offense survives, especially with a rather inexperienced offensive line trying to find its footing. The offense, at least, needs to give the illusion it can be balanced on any down.

It all comes back to execution, of course, but the playcalling can help not only improve execution — more higher-probability execution — but also help keep Iowa ahead of the chains.

Incomplete first down, run for 2 on second down, obvious pass on 3rd-and-8 isn't fun for anyone.

We've seen when Iowa completes a pass on first down, they're getting good gains, averaging 13.1 yards per completion.

The point is putting the quarterbacks (Petras has completed 48% of first-down passes, Padilla 63%) in better spots to do it.

Thanks for humoring my nerdiness.

For those asking where this thread came from, Michigan was incredibly aggressive with its run blitz packages against Iowa on second down. Most aggressive I’ve seen against Iowa in years. On its first 3 drives, Iowa had 3 incomplete first-down passes, ran it on second all 3 times.