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Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

7 Dec

1. My read of Biden Putin meeting: Putin seeks to be treated like a peer and Biden does that. It allows them to address issues where the US and Russia have common interests. Putin needs to have an off-ramp in Ukraine. I'm guessing that was one of the major reasons they spoke

2. in secret. Sullivan just mentioned Nortstream2 as not a done deal and that's the stick that most concerns Putin. On Iran Sullivan just said the policy is that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon. My recollection of the JCPOA was that it only delayed Iran's break out. Not stop it.

3. The easing of diplomatic tensions and return to normal consular activities seems to have been a point left to the teams to address. Putin's inner circle does not want more sanctions. It would not surprise me if some lessening of sanctions may be in the cards if there is some

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Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

7 Dec

1. One of the challenges I continue to see for prosecutors are the defects that TFG and his crew exploited in the federal statute establishing how the winner of a presidential election is certified. The flaws in the electoral college scheme is amplified by this arcane statute.

2. What I fear is that any move to simply charge the #45 crew who planned the coup will come up against the packed #SCOTUS that will let them all off the hook on the grounds that that you can't charge obstruction of Congress or some other conspiracy for attempting to

3. employ a federal statutory scheme to your benefit. It might be helpful if people demanding immediate indictments do a simple element analysis of specific criminal statutes and address the defenses that might raise reasonable doubt. It only takes one failed element to acquit.

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Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

6 Dec

@FBI

1. There's a real Catch 22 for Mikey Flynn to be examined. He was convicted of lying to the @FBI but his pardon includes reference to a secret part of Mueller's Rosenstein remit that I think relates to ongoing crimes by TFG and various foreign and domestic criminal associates.

2. That's what I would ask him right off. And, because he's been pardoned, failure to talk about it can't be protected by the 5th Amendment privilege and will pour the whole bloody mess of TFG's Russian Turkish Jordanian UAE Flynn Manafort conspiracy on the deck

3. for the whole world to see. Too bad that the people Mikey Flynn was playing with will be happy to eliminate him and his entire family to keep their dirty little secret. And Pauly Manafort had the same reference in his pardon. So that likely connects it to the NY five families.

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Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

6 Dec

@RepAdamSchiff

1. The reason why I believe that DOJ has not moved on the organizers and why people like @RepAdamSchiff say they don't know what's going on, is because the investigation is focused on foreign connections to the coup. Intel committees only get info on certain kinds of operations.

2. They are specifically blocked from counterintelligence related investigations and traditional law enforcement. To view Schiff's evident lack of knowledge of a criminal investigation as evidence that it does not exist evidences a misunderstanding how these matters work.

3. I have been watching small bits of evidence of the investigation since before the 2016 election. Connecting TFG and his funders to a hostile foreign power IMO is far more important that rushing to charge them for what this SCOTUS will certainly term a political act.

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Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

4 Dec

@joebiden

1. If we really think that Russia is going to invade Ukraine we should be caching small arms everywhere to conduct ongoing guerilla war against a Russian occupation. Bleed Russia's military and economy dry. But I think this is all just psyops. Theater to scare @joebiden

2. who after Afghanistan is going to have to pass the test. If he has the Zoom meeting with Putin giving him anything will be a disaster. Putin will take it as weakness then see that an attack may have an acceptable cost. Being anything but firm with Putin makes war more likely.

3. And if Putin is really willing to risk crushing sanctions to grab more territory, his objective will be the Baltics not Ukraine. We need to make him understand that war with NATO is in play if he sets foot in the Baltics and not give him any belief Ukraine will be abandoned.

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Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

4 Dec

1. The charges I would try to prove regarding the members of TFG administration would require proof that the defendants knew at the time they were drafting letters and making plans, an attack on the Capitol was part of the plan. If they have that evidence against Clark

2. and Eastman, I think that would support charges under Chapter 115 including Seditious Conspiracy, Conspiracy to Incite Insurrection and possibly Advocating Overthrow. Matt Olsen, the new head of the National Security Division, has been on duty for one month.

3. I don't think that any investigation that comes from that division leaks. It can be charged on a complaint or information so no need to put the facts to a grand jury until it's already been made public. The DOJ's principal goal is to prevent another crime like this.

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