1. My read of Biden Putin meeting: Putin seeks to be treated like a peer and Biden does that. It allows them to address issues where the US and Russia have common interests. Putin needs to have an off-ramp in Ukraine. I'm guessing that was one of the major reasons they spoke
2. in secret. Sullivan just mentioned Nortstream2 as not a done deal and that's the stick that most concerns Putin. On Iran Sullivan just said the policy is that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon. My recollection of the JCPOA was that it only delayed Iran's break out. Not stop it.
3. The easing of diplomatic tensions and return to normal consular activities seems to have been a point left to the teams to address. Putin's inner circle does not want more sanctions. It would not surprise me if some lessening of sanctions may be in the cards if there is some
4. clear indication that Putin is going to walk back from this threats against Ukraine. That's what I will watch for.

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More from @TimInHonolulu

9 Dec
1. Meta data of this document shows creation date Jan 12, 2021, after the attack. I would not trust anything they gave me. This could be a sanitized document that removed the evidence of agreement to the violent attack that is the element I have not seen in any of the evidence.
2. The only thing I would trust are documents taken from images of the hard drives. If from clouds, I would want to see the logs. In particular, I would look for deleted and modified documents. What these subpoenas may have inadvertently done is give the conspiracy the road map
3. to what they needed to officiate or destroy. The conspiracy would have likely hired a firm to examine the drives. That's who I would be looking for. The good news is that if they were on a cloud the DOJ may have the images and logs. And the Committee is just an lure to
Read 5 tweets
9 Dec
1. #Putin is more predictable in certain circumstances that the US press often reports. In 2013, when @BarackObama sailed the USS Whiteplains and USS Taylor offshore of Sochi during Putin's big Olympic shindig, I knew it was going to bring a significant response. Putin doesn't
2. care if we like him. He cares that we respect him and because he, like many strongmen believes he's the embodiment of his nation, he can act for Russia when he's insulted. Russia has maintained bases in Crimea continuously since Khrushchev made the gift to Ukraine that
3. no one ever thought at the time was going to become an independent and eventually hostile neighbor. We still occupy part of Cuba we scooped up as a colonial spoil from defeating the Spanish Empire. Crimea needs to be addressed. I expect some long-term Russian basing and land
Read 7 tweets
8 Dec
1. Western strategy has suffered from the post WWII John Birch Society advanced demonization of the left in the international arena. We might have avoided the current China crisis and the #Vietnam War had we been willing to not take such an aggressive stance against the
2. leftist anti-colonial forces that moved to retake control of colonies after Germany and Japan's defeat. Rather than support independence we advanced confused policies that were easily exploited by the most radical forces in the emerging post-colonial world. We played a key
3. role in the radicalization of the Chinese Communist Party by myopic racist policies directed at the Chinese Communists that were passed through a lens of clever propaganda as racial attacks on the Chinese people who had long suffered from racism and Colonial exploitation.
Read 10 tweets
8 Dec
1. I think the daily reports that I have seen reported of Taliban casualties are in-line with these numbers, though the ratio of KIA to wounded seems unusually skewed towards KIA. Image
2. I found historical #Afghan war #casualties from Brown University.
Total war casualties in #Afghanistan: 2,324 US troops, 3,917 US contractors, 69,000 Afghan government
3. troops and police, 1,144 allied troops from NATO and many other countries, 46,319 Afghan civilians, 52,893 #Taliban fighters and other opposition forces

From 1 July through 5 November 2019, Afghan National Defense Forces reported
Read 9 tweets
7 Dec
1. One of the challenges I continue to see for prosecutors are the defects that TFG and his crew exploited in the federal statute establishing how the winner of a presidential election is certified. The flaws in the electoral college scheme is amplified by this arcane statute.
2. What I fear is that any move to simply charge the #45 crew who planned the coup will come up against the packed #SCOTUS that will let them all off the hook on the grounds that that you can't charge obstruction of Congress or some other conspiracy for attempting to
3. employ a federal statutory scheme to your benefit. It might be helpful if people demanding immediate indictments do a simple element analysis of specific criminal statutes and address the defenses that might raise reasonable doubt. It only takes one failed element to acquit.
Read 8 tweets
7 Dec
1. Very strong language from @StateDept re reasons for govt official boycott of Chinese Olympic games.

“Now, of course that does not modulate at all our support for Team USA. We will be behind them 100 percent. We will be cheering them on. But of course,
2. we will not have any official or diplomatic representation that would send a signal that these Games represent anything akin to business as usual in the face of these ongoing atrocities, crimes against humanity, and the ongoing genocide.”
3. State does not use language like, “ongoing atrocities, crimes against humanity, and the ongoing genocide” without putting the onus on Islamic nations to follow suit. They won’t and so delegitimize their own regimes in the struggle against anti-Muslim bigotry and genocide.
Read 5 tweets

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