Theoretical prediction of the effect omicron mutations on monoclonal antibodies by @jbloom_lab

Authors believe that this combination of mutations located on the RBD could potentially reduce the effect of monoclonal antibodies targeting that area of the virus.

See thread👇

1/5
This study is based on the apparent individual & additive effect of mutations based on a computer model of the RBD.

They did a computational method called “deep mutational scanning” which is used to study multiple mutations at once.

It is however not a biophysical model.

2/
Authors conclude

“Sites 484, 446 & 417 are the biggest drivers of this antigenic change, although other mutations also contribute. Mutations at sites 346, 378, 444 & 504 could make it worse”

3/
While such computational studies are important in adding information, they do not necessarily predict the real biology of:

1) the whole immune process in the human body especially in vaccinated people/prior infection

2) the remote effect of mutations that occur outside RBD

4/
Authors however find that the Omicron variant’s calculated score is about the same as a polymutant spike (PMS20) that was artificially engineered in a pseudovirus to maximize escape antibodies.

This was previously substantiated through neutralising studies using PMS20 spike.

5/
At this time we need to understand that regardless of the Greek name, the virus is the same one that started the pandemic in 2019, ~like the same car with a few custom alterations.

As it adapts to its new found human host, let’s wait for peer-reviewed clinical studies.

6/6

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More from @RajeevJayadevan

8 Dec
The big picture on Omicron

Early studies now out comparing Omicron and Delta.

One liner: All is not lost; hybrid immunity performs the best.

This work is from @sigallab Sweden where they checked neutralisation of omicron VS delta VS old virus using serum from 34 people

1/16 Image
They find what is already known: that people respond differently to the infection.

That is, there is substantial variation in the profile of immune response between individuals.

Which means: we can’t generalise for one person. That is one thing we need to understand.

2/
This graph shows all 34 people’s neutralising values

In plain English it means how did each of their serum (sera) did against: 1. Old virus
2. Delta
3. Omicron

The y axis is pseudovirus neutralisation titer. Higher value means the sample is effective at higher dilution.

3/ Image
Read 13 tweets
6 Dec
Why a more transmissible variant can cause more deaths than a more lethal (but less transmissible) variant.

Short thread👇

1/4
Transmissibility and immune escape are different. The first is the ability to enter cells.

The latter refers to the ability of the virus to infect someone who had prior infection or vaccine-induced immunity.

The combination of the two traits does not work in our favour.

2/
Broadly speaking, Alpha was more transmissible, beta had immune escape, delta had both. We are awaiting the true picture of omicron.

This new research shows how a transmissible virus is dangerous, more so when it also has immune evasive capability.

3/4

sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/…
Read 4 tweets
5 Dec
🔹Longer 4 month interval between doses generated stronger immune response (mRNA, humoral) than 1 month (16 vs. 4 weeks)

This ~explains the quick waning in nations that used short gap

🔹1 dose might be enough for those who had prior infection (2nd dose did not add much)

1/
The study strengthens the original concepts that:

1. Single dose might suffice for those with prior infection

2. Vaccination for COVID-19 is basically a 2-step process, with a 3rd encounter not adding anything substantial. (The “booster dose” might have served as 2nd dose)

2/
In other words, the first 2 doses of mRNA vaccine, taken “too close together” (3-4 weeks), might have been interpreted by the body as a SINGLE dose.

That will explain why the 3rd mRNA dose generated substantial rise in antibody level afterwards, during the booster campaign.

3/
Read 9 tweets
4 Dec
Proof that vaccination is not losing its ability to prevent severe disease

I am adding my analysis of hospitalisation trends from two time periods 6 months apart as reported by this paper from Lancet

Risk of hospitalisation is unchanged in 6 months

1/

thelancet.com/journals/lanmi… ImageImage
Unfortunately, superficial reading & blindly following the narrative of published articles leads the reader to arrive at wrong assumptions.

One MUST take the time & look at the data presented, independently, using basic tools. I have added my notes for those interested.

2/
❗️The hospitalisation trends at any time must be interpreted in the context of the prevailing vaccination rates. I have used vaccination rates at the beginning of each time period.

It is only basic math, and my notes are self explanatory.

3/
Read 9 tweets
4 Dec
13 out of 120 people who attended an indoor Christmas party at a restaurant test +ve for Omicron in Norway so far.

Crowded indoor festivities are a prefect setting for the virus to spread, whether it is delta or other.

Such events have been occurring👇

reuters.com/world/europe/o…
Recipe for a super spreader event.

The fact that people are vaccinated will not make much difference when there is a massive viral load in the air as people talk, sing & spend a long time together in a closed space.

(Mucosal immunity doesn’t last long after vaccination)

2/ Image
Similar story from Germany recently. Dr Christian Drosten retweeted this story.

Just to show that “3G” will not work against the SARS-CoV-2 virus. See thread for details.

3/
Read 6 tweets
3 Dec
A few takeaways from this booster study from India’s perspective (we use adenovirus vector [AstraZeneca, Sputnik V] & inactivated vaccine)

They compared 2 groups of people: double vaccinated Pfizer and double vaccinated AstraZeneca.

A big menu of 3rd dose vaccines was used.

1/
The 3rd dose used were AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Moderna, Valneva (French inactivated vaccine), J&J, CureVac (mRNA), NovaVax (subunit, Spike protein).

They measured antibody level & T cell response after this dose, and compared between various combinations. See paper for graphs.

2/
The first thing we must remember is that antibody level is not an exact correlate of how much protection is achieved.

In other words, if “double” the antibody level is produced by a particular vaccine, it does not mean that symptomatic infection rate will be “cut in half”.

3/
Read 19 tweets

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