Thread by @IntelCrab

A brief rundown of what we know tonight as @POTUS prepares for highly anticipated call with Putin:

*Intelligence suggests 175,000+ RU troops involved in a massive, three pronged invasion deep into Ukrainian territory.

*Under direct Kremlin authorization, troops could commence offensive activities the second orders are given. Recent reports of freshly established fuel and supply lines only underscores this point.

*Majority of armored units reside in FOBs within 200km of Ukrainian border.

There is, and I cannot stress this enough, an immediate and pressing threat of Russian offensive activities against Ukraine.

Window of time from official authorization and the start of conflict would be incredibly small: far faster than even the 2014 Crimean annexation.

Posturing. Real action. Whatever it is, full focus should be placed on the region for the coming weeks. Tomorrow will be an excellent opportunity for the Biden administration to gage Putin's attitude/overall decorum on the topic.

Wait and see, as they say. So we shall.👀

The real red lights to look for?

*Unexpected #Kremlin meetings with NSC/top generals.
*Sudden diplomatic movements.
*Commodity prices/RUB-USD changes.
*Increase in NATO aerial recon.
*Civilian notices/civil defense bulletins in border regions.

Very much interested in hearing a Ukrainian prospective to this crisis. Do people fear? What do food/heating costs look like? How does this feel in comparison to earlier this year?