A brief rundown of what we know tonight as @POTUS prepares for highly anticipated call with Putin:

*Intelligence suggests 175,000+ RU troops involved in a massive, three pronged invasion deep into Ukrainian territory.
*Under direct Kremlin authorization, troops could commence offensive activities the second orders are given. Recent reports of freshly established fuel and supply lines only underscores this point.

*Majority of armored units reside in FOBs within 200km of Ukrainian border.
There is, and I cannot stress this enough, an immediate and pressing threat of Russian offensive activities against Ukraine.

Window of time from official authorization and the start of conflict would be incredibly small: far faster than even the 2014 Crimean annexation.
Posturing. Real action. Whatever it is, full focus should be placed on the region for the coming weeks. Tomorrow will be an excellent opportunity for the Biden administration to gage Putin's attitude/overall decorum on the topic.

Wait and see, as they say. So we shall.👀
The real red lights to look for?

*Unexpected #Kremlin meetings with NSC/top generals.
*Sudden diplomatic movements.
*Commodity prices/RUB-USD changes.
*Increase in NATO aerial recon.
*Civilian notices/civil defense bulletins in border regions.
Very much interested in hearing a Ukrainian prospective to this crisis. Do people fear? What do food/heating costs look like? How does this feel in comparison to earlier this year?

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with The Intel Crab

The Intel Crab Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @IntelCrab

26 Feb
Estonian Intelligence Services note an increasing likelihood of Russian military intervention in #Belarus as election fall out continues.
“The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service has released an annual report on the growing likelihood of Russian troops attacking Ukraine and the Baltic states through Belarus.”
“According to Estonian intelligence, as a result of the 2020 political crisis, Belarus has become a military district of Russia, and now this "Belarusian military district" poses an immediate threat to its closest neighbors with NATO.”
Read 5 tweets
8 Jan
What
Will
We Do
Read 5 tweets
8 Jan
Meanwhile, it seems folks over on Parler/POL have created a new 'battle flag' for the upcoming 'Million Militia March' on the 20th.

Ashley Babbitt, killed by federal police on the 6th, has become a so called 'martyr' for these extremists.

Sick sick people. ImageImageImage
The black flag symbolism ties into a Q-blurb from years ago.

"A black flag will fly above the dome."
Additional variants from @linwood on Parler. ImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
4 Aug 20
This photo is making the rounds this evening on Telegram. Appears to show numerous parcels of bagged Ammonium Nitrate.

Was going to write this off as horse shit, but those are the exact same warehouse windows.🤔
IF this photo is legitimate...well...I'm absolutely speechless.

Tons of Ammonium Nitrate sitting in a hot warehouse with no security or proper hazardous material protections.

Absolutely unbelievable.
The photo on the right is a screenshot from the following video.

Read 4 tweets
31 Dec 19
As we near the end of this decade, I’d like to roll back the clock and revisit some of the scarier incidents we saw unfold over these past 10 years; specifically those that put global peace & stability at major risk.

The following list is in no particular order of importance...
1 —> [23:11:10]

Event: Bombardment of Yeonpyeong

Significance: Most violent violation of the armistice in post-war history. Both parties involved had moved dangerously high up the escalation ladder in a very short window of time.

Personal Note: Fire and Furbies.
2 —> [24:11:15]

Event: 2015 Russian Sukhoi Su-24 shootdown

Significance: First NATO targeting of a Russian craft since the Korean War. Period in relations that immediately followed was tensest in recent memory.

Personal Note: Russia never talked to Turkey again, right?
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(