Thread by @MarkHertling

Some facts to put this article in perspective:
1.Pentagon always does “planning” for civilian evacuations in a war-torn country. Plus, there are contingency plans already on the shelf that are adapted. 1/

https://twitter.com/dave_brown24/status/1468233598776102914

2. There are always “courses of action” & a “number of different scenarios” based on the situation & thoughts on how to conduct the NEO (non-combatant evacuation operations) Having planned and conducted these, the course of action usually changes, sometimes more than once. 2/

3. While the Pentagon plans, the State Dept is always the lead for these actions. They make the call on when to execute and how many citizens to remove. State never has an accurate count of US citizens in any particular country. 3/

4.Deliberations (and intergovernmental coordination) is always “serious” when discussing NEO ops.
5. Use of armed forces for security of these ops is always part of the planning. 4/

6. Comparing a potential NEO - of any size - to what happened in Afghanistan is comparing apples to tennis rackets. The fall of the Afghan govt and the role of the Taliban created a unique NEO.
7. Having said #7, all NEOs appear chaotic at the beginning. 5/

8. There are other nations also planning NEOs, so there is also multinational coordination for “exit capabilities (e.g., airports, trains, roads, etc). 6/

Non related, but also important: those saying we’ve already applied sanctions to Russia…there are many more in the rucksack of @potus to apply. 7/

Those concluding the this NEO prep indicates a greater potential for a Russian attack or further incursion, I still place that probability at “very low,” but this is still very serious. 8/

For clarity, Ukraine is a “partner nation,” not an “ally.” They are not part of any alliance we belong to, and that is of concern as this moves forward. 9/

Anyone suggesting we deploy US forces to eastern Ukraine as a “deterrent” (as I’ve heard some uninformed Republicans say while bashing Biden), it’s apparent they know very little about conditions in the Donbas. 10/

The focus should remain on enforcing the Minsk Accords (which Russia continuously violates), and perhaps having the US join the Normandy talks. 11/

Ukraine should receive support from the US and others in the EU, but I believe they have the wherewithal to remain a proud and sovereign nation, and they will stand up to Russia’s continuous bullying. 12/

Of future concerns is watching how Russia will continue to execute dis- and misinformation campaigns in Kyiv. For them, this won’t be over with some diplomatic agreement (that will likely come from these talks). 13/

Finally, Putin should not perceive any gain or win from these talks. Ukraine is a sovereign nation, amd they should not be treated as a vassal state by Russia. 14/End

More to follow after the talks.