Thread by @pieterstreicher

1 of 6:

7 December Gauteng #Omicron update:

Cases might exceed the Delta peak. All other variables will be significantly lower.

South Africa only has light restrictions currently (a 4hr curfew from midnight). The vulnerable continue to take extra care.

2 of 6:

Total hospital beds could be less than half of Delta levels (4,500 vs 9,200).

The growth rate is a consistent 10-12% per day.

data source: NICD

nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-i…

3 of 6:

Looking at more severe outcomes the gap is even larger.

ICU beds are expected to grow at 10-12% per day during the exponential phase.

ICU beds might peak at less than 570, almost 3x lower compared to the Delta peak.

4 of 6:

Ventilated beds are now showing a consistent increase. The expected growth rate is 10-12% per day during the exponential phase.

The peak is likely to be below 140, more than 6 x lower compared to the Delta peak.

5 of 6:

Gauteng short term projections for #Omicron:

Cases (7d average) are starting to fall well below the projection. Cases might peak earlier than expected.

6 of 6:

Gauteng has only had 124 C-19 deaths in hospital from 20 November to 7 December.

In this same period, there were 3,486 PCR+ patients admitted to hospital.

From 20 November to 1 December, there were 1,246 PCR+ patients admitted to hospital.

Correction:

4 of 6 (slide corrected)

Ventilated beds are now showing a consistent increase. The expected growth rate is 10-12% per day during the exponential phase.

The peak is likely to be below 140, more than 6 x lower compared to the Delta peak.