Thread by @pieterstreicher

1 of 6:

Gauteng #Omicron update - 8 December:

The load on hospitals is significantly lower compared to Delta, and with a peak imminent, hospitals will not be overloaded at all.

No restrictions are needed to help hospitals in any way.

2 of 6:

The total number of patients in hospital is well below the Delta wave.

Since a peak in hospital numbers is expected in 12-22 days, this variable is not a concern anymore.

data source: NICD
nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-i…

3 of 6:

The portion of hospital patients ending up in ICU is much lower (10%) compared to Delta (24%).

Considering that a significant portion of patients in hospital have not been infected before, or are not vaccinated, #Omicron must be significantly less virulent.

4 of 6:

The portion of hospital patients ending up on ventilators is even lower (3-4%) compared to Delta (10%).

Note that the ratios for Delta were similar for Beta and the wild type virus. #Omicron is the first variant with such a dramatic drop in disease severity.

5 of 6:

Thanks to @jburnmurdoch for also highlighting this signficant drop with #Omicron .

There are additional factors such as lower ages of admissions that also reduce disease severity, but age alone cannot explain the significant drop.

6 of 6:

Countries are quick to implement travel bans, but take months to lift them.

Every vulnerable person infected with Delta before Omicron has a higher mortality risk, even if fully vaccinated.

Since we have leaky vaccines, a certain level of infections are inevitable.