🧵New from me: Iran defends itself from charges of overreach as parties prepare to return to Vienna for talks on trying to revive the nuclear pact Thursday diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…
There is *a lot* of new reporting in this, incl. an interview with a US official explaining what he sees as a potential US decision point possibly coming towards end of the first quarter next year based on shrinking of Iran breakout to “margin of error” diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…
“The Fordow move combines the accumulation of 20% enriched uranium and the use of advanced IR-6 centrifuges in a facility that is difficult to target,” he said. 
“The concern is that in the first quarter of next year, Iran breakout will start to approach the margin of error…We have never been this close,” the US official said, referring to the shortening Iranian breakout time, which JCPOA extended to 1 year. diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…
“We certainly have the capability to put more time on the clock though military or other means. The threshold point for that is TBD.” If credible evidence they are moving towards producing weapons-grade material – or other weaponization work” diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…
Short of that? “I think if we get into the latter part of the [first quarter], close to the margin of error, we will reach a decision point,” the US official said. “A decision will be made.” diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…
Meantime, CIA chief Bill Burns said yesterday the agency does *not* “see any evidence that Iran's Supreme Leader has made a decision to move to weaponize," Burns told WSJ CEO council. He spoke as Mossad director David Barnea was reported to be in DC diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…
Ex Israel military intel analyst @citrinowicz said he did not think Iran was seeking to produce a nuclear weapon, but demonstrate a threshold ability to do so, as a way to fortify itself. “I don’t think they want a bomb. …diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…
“I think what they want is to be as advanced as they can in enrichment…to show that they are highly fortified…&v close to being able to acquire the fissile material for a nuclear bomb, even if they don’t have a bomb, they have the capability to do so.”
diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…
diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…
Re: Iran’s recent move to use advanced centrifuges to enrich to 20% at Fordow, Citrinowicz assessed Iranian side is trying to show the other parties the cost to them of Iran not being enticed to return back to full implementation of JCPOA.
diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…
diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…
“In their mind…they are highlighting the price of not being in the JCPOA. [If the JCPOA collapses], ‘We are not obligated to do anything,’” Citrinowicz characterized the Iranian negotiators’ possible mindset. diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…
e.g. Iran wants to show the other parties it thinks they need jcpoa more than it does
While Citroniwicz does not believe Iran wants to cross threshold to nuclear weapon, he says in current situation, there is a huge possibility for miscalculation.
“If there is not a return to JCPOA, I think we are entering a very, very unstable situation,” diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…
“If there is not a return to JCPOA, I think we are entering a very, very unstable situation,” diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…
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