Sima Shine closes out terrific @AtlanticCouncil event hosted by @barbaraslavin1 expressing hope agreement will be reached in near term in Vienna: I think everyone will benefit form some years of quiet in order to make the situation more calm in the Middle East
.@MahsaRouhi earlier suggested that the western sides come up with creative solutions to address legit Iran concerns a future US admin could leave the deal again, that bypass the US. Such as a certain bank abroad would handle x to y transaction.
.@Azodiac83 does think the Leader is open to a deal, even though, as Sima Shine said earlier, Rouhani's team was not allowed to finalize it before they left.
Sima Shine essentially agreed with Mahsa Rouhi that there is not much benefit to talking about a military option publicly now, suggested it might have more to do with Israeli domestic politics. She cited Kissinger that Israel does not have foreign policy, it has domestic politics
Although Shine also said it is very hard to imagine an Israeli Prime Minister who if he/she would have information that Iran is going for a nuclear weapon, would not feel obliged to act.
.@KelseyDav said Biden admin concern with possible unilateral good will gesture at this point is it would look like rewarding Iran ratcheting up its program. Proof of concept. That being said, she agrees with Mahsi there are still steps Biden admin could take:
such as proposing more creative and flexible approaches to demonstrate to Iran it would benefit from sanctions relief. Could put on the table without enacting them (unless and until a deal), so it does not reward Iranian steps to ratchet up its nuclear leverage.

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More from @lrozen

10 Dec
truly disturbing and so much evidence, how are these people not indicted yet.
“Freeman, understandably wary, asked for Cobb County police to provide protection. Eventually, Freeman agreed to speak with Kutti at the police station. *Police body-camera footage obtained by Reuters captured some of the conversation*.”
“But it was a comment Trump made at the end of the call that is of new interest following a report from Reuters on Friday..
‘Hey Brad, why wouldn’t you want to check out Ruby Freeman?’ Trump asked. It was one of more than a dozen references to Freeman..that Trump made” in call
Read 8 tweets
7 Dec
Jake Sullivan briefing on Biden Putin call at WH now
He also told him there is another option-deescalation. No reason can’t do it going forward provided operating in a period of deescalation, not escalation.
Sullivan: was a lot of give and take. no finger wagging. President Biden was crystal clear.
Read 4 tweets
7 Dec
🧵New from me: Iran defends itself from charges of overreach as parties prepare to return to Vienna for talks on trying to revive the nuclear pact Thursday diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…
There is *a lot* of new reporting in this, incl. an interview with a US official explaining what he sees as a potential US decision point possibly coming towards end of the first quarter next year based on shrinking of Iran breakout to “margin of error” diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…
“The Fordow move combines the accumulation of 20% enriched uranium and the use of advanced IR-6 centrifuges in a facility that is difficult to target,” he said. Image
Read 13 tweets
5 Dec
🧵tentative impression of some chagrin/defensiveness on Iran side after harsh reaction to its proposals in vienna last week as obnoxius overreach gives me for moment anyhow a smidgen of hope they did not intend to overshoot that much. and maybe do want to be seen as serious
(“hope” not right word above but after trying to search for another one for a while gave up in interests of time. sub a word that is less hopeful than hope.)
essentially, among the different motivations of the Iran side—the Iran govt, the Raisi admin, the nezam, etc.—one of the dynamics that seems to be at work is the desire of the new iran negotiating team to show success at home and that they could do it better than last guys
Read 10 tweets
4 Dec
Harsh assessment from senior US State Dept official about new Iranian government approach at last round of Vienna talks. What we have seen over the last week is getting ready for them meant advancing their nuclear program in intentionally provocative ways, stonewalling IAEA 1/
while coming back with an unserious proposal that tried to walk back the compromises floated by Iran in previous rounds of talks, pocket the potential compromises by others, and ask for more.
The official would not speak for Russia and China but said it is fair to say they were quite taken aback as well by the degree to which Iran walked back on its own compromises and doubled down on new requests. He said not just US/E3 but whole P5+1 was disappointed by the Iranians
Read 9 tweets
3 Dec
🧵New from me: ‘Back to square one almost’: Iran talks end in Vienna with no apparent progress diplomatic.substack.com/p/almost-back-…
European diplomats say after the new Iranian admin waited 5 months to resume nuclear talks, its proposed changes to a text crafted over 6 previous rounds of talks walk “back almost all of the difficult compromises crafted after many months of hard work.” diplomatic.substack.com/p/almost-back-…
“Over 5 months ago, Iran interrupted negotiations,” E3 dips said. “Since then, Iran has fast-forwarded its nuclear program. This week, it has back-tracked on diplomatic progress made.”
“unclear how these new gaps can be closed in a realistic timeframe”

diplomatic.substack.com/p/almost-back-…
Read 8 tweets

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