Nice to hear @drsanjaygupta & @joerogan debate & respectfully disagree about multiple topics. They spent a fair bit of time discussing our pre-print (medrxiv.org/content/10.110…) on post-vaccination myocarditis in boys. I want to clarify a few things cnn.com/2021/10/13/hea…
First, Joe does say it correctly once, but our study compared the risk we identified via VAERS of post-vaccination myocarditis (1/6200 in 12-15 yo boys and 1/10,600 in 16-17 yo boys) to the risk of hospitalization over the next *4 months* and *not overall* from COVID-19.
We did find that, even at times of high disease prevalence, that boys 12-17 without medical comorbidities were more likely to have post vax myocarditis after dose 2 than be hospitalized for COVID (over a 120-day period)
It is correct that the hospitalization rate we identified in those with myocarditis was around 84%. Israel found an 81% hospitalization rate among their myocarditis cases; most cases mild, but one death. nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
What was not discussed on the show was other reports finding *higher* rates of myocarditis in this demographic than we found, for example Israel (1/6600 for 16-19 yo males) and Ontario (1/5600)
https://twitter.com/TracyBethHoeg/status/1445918579816165381
Ontario Canada has is reporting the highest rates (1/5600 for 12-17 yo males). So our study's post-vax myo rates in boys after dose 2 are well in line with other studies (in fact our rates were lower)
https://twitter.com/TracyBethHoeg/status/1447939524240322561
The above studies were of Pfizer, but Moderna seems to have an rate of post-vax myocarditis in young men (Scandinavian data for young men; not yet released for boys) & Nordic countries pausing Moderna in this demographic for this reason
https://twitter.com/TracyBethHoeg/status/1447939520993845254
The ? of the rate of COVID myocarditis in this age group is a good one. Unfortunately we don't have good data yet. We have good data on asympt & symptomatic covid-related myocarditis in college aged men, but not boys due to inappropriate denominator ⬇️
https://twitter.com/TracyBethHoeg/status/1436851149827575818
Our study & others have brought up more questions than answers: What is the benefit of vaccinating a previously infected child? Would it be reasonable for boys just receive 1 dose of vaccination who have not been prev infected? How often do long-term sequelae develop from this?
I'm grateful that @joerogan and @drsanjaygupta found this topic worthy of discussion -pls more discussions like this! I think every one of us wants to work together to minimize harm & do the right thing for our kids. P.S. I'm pro vax & double vaccinated myself & grateful for it.
In the revision of our pre-print, we are taking into consideration 1. overall infection hospitalization rate, 2. the benefits of one dose of the vaccine and 3. a history of natural infection. TY team: @drjohnm , @KrugAlli @ifihadastick
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