Thread by @AlexEpstein

Dear @Sen_JoeManchin,

The "Build Back Better" legislation you are considering will be an unmitigated disaster for the West Virginia energy industry and economy.

No handful of compromises will change this.

Any vote other than no will do irreparable damage to your state.

THREAD

As an energy expert and concerned citizen, I am writing you because I believe you are our greatest hope of stopping the worst energy legislation in US history, which will especially harm your state of West Virginia: the “Build Back Better” reconciliation bill.

According to press reports and insiders, you are in active negotiations to change or remove several provisions of BBB that you are concerned will be particularly harmful to West Virginia. But no compromise is possible, because BBB is through-and-through destructive to your state.

BBB will be an unmitigated disaster to WV energy in 3 ways:
1. It will make WV electricity much higher cost and much less reliable.
2. It will sabotage WV's growing oil production.
3. It will sabotage WV's growing natural gas production.

The only way to protect WV is to stop it.

1: BBB will make WV electricity much higher cost and much less reliable

Through many policies designed to move us from 12% solar/wind electricity to 50% in 8 years—above all a 10-year extension/expansion of solar/wind subsidies—BBB will end low-cost, reliable electricity in WV.

Low-cost, reliable electricity is one of WV's great assets. Thanks to its overwhelmingly coal-fired electricity, West Virginia has some of the lowest electricity rates in the country—second only to coal-heavy Kentucky on the East Coast.

Low-cost, reliable electricity saves everyone money and makes WV a hub of industry. The industrial sector uses over 40% of WV’s electricity.

Low-cost, reliable electricity also makes WV a major exporter of electricity to its regional grid, meaning more money from other states.

If WV is going to continue to have low-cost, reliable electricity, it must continue its policy of choosing the lowest-cost, most reliable sources at any given time--and not engaging in the costly process of premature shutting down power plants.

BBB would make this impossible.

The overarching energy goal of BBB, which shapes dozens of individual policies, is the rapid elimination of fossil fuels in favor of solar/wind energy. Specifically, as I document here, it seeks going from 12% to 50% unreliable solar/wind in 8 years!
alexepstein.substack.com/p/talking-poin…

BBB tries to quadruple our use of unreliable solar/wind in 8 years through a 10-year extension/expansion of the “ITC/PTC” subsidies, as well as many other provisions to pressure and bribe utilities into eliminating reliable fossil fuel power plants.
alexepstein.substack.com/p/talking-poin…

Every area of the world that has tried using significant amounts of unreliable solar and wind has had major cost and/or reliability problems. In the US, we have had big electricity price increases and huge reliability problems even at 12% solar and wind.

Germans, to get 37% of their electricity from solar+wind, have doubled their prices--now 3X US prices. And they can only get away with 37% because they have neighbors to bail them out when solar/wind fall short. The US as a whole has no such neighbors.

In California, where I live, we get <20% of our electricity from domestic solar and wind--and we have skyrocketing prices along with disastrous shortages and blackouts. And it would be far worse if we didn't import 30% of our electricity from neighbors.

During TX's February cold spell, solar and wind disappeared when they were needed the most. TX’s expensive batteries, which couldn't even store minutes worth of electricity, didn’t help, either. What would they have done under the 50% solar and wind??!!

If BBB passes, WV will suffer the same fate that Germany, California, Texas, and many others have: prematurely shutting down many reliable power plants at great cost, paying for massive new unreliable solar/wind infrastructure at great cost, and facing huge reliability risks.

While every state will be harmed by BBB’s imposition of high-cost, unreliable electricity, WV will suffer especially—whether from fleeing industry or from deadly winters when the power goes out and over 50% of the population is relying on electric heat.

2: BBB will sabotage WV's growing oil production

A major new cause of prosperity in WV has been its booming oil industry, which has grown 10X over the last decade.

But that growth is threatened by dozens of anti-oil provisions in BBB—way more than can be removed in negotiation.

3: BBB will sabotage WV's growing natural gas production

West Virginia is home to about 10% of the US’s gas reserves. Increasing natural gas production has benefited WV greatly, especially the industrial sector. The BBB’s dozens of anti-gas provisions will end this boom.

Since you are in a position to stop BBB, its architects will likely offer you a few compromises and various welfare payments for “communities left behind” in WV. But no amount of welfare can make up for the destruction of WV’s energy industry—and with it, WV’s economy.

The #1 target of BBB is America's use of coal. That means its #1 target is WV. A 2019 study by WVU economists found that coal mining and coal-fired power plants generated economic activity of almost $14 billion, employment for over 30,000 West Virginians, and >10% of WV taxes.

Do not believe claims that magic "green jobs" will make WV better after BBB destroys the coal industry. "Green jobs" are: 1) unproductive, 2) largely in China, and 3) the cause of job losses in other industries via high energy prices.
alexepstein.substack.com/p/talking-poin…

BBB’s push for rapidly eliminating US fossil fuels plays perfectly into the hands of China. China has a clear strategy of running its economy on over 80% fossil fuels, while encouraging us to run on unreliable solar and wind—that is made using Chinese fossil fuels.

The claim that BBB's anti-America, anti-WV energy policies will lower global CO2 emissions is absurd. As China shows, the developing world will continue to use more and more fossil fuel so long as that is the lowest-cost way for it to get reliable energy.
energytalkingpoints.com/co2-emissions/

There is no need to take America-destroying and WV-destroying measures to rapidly eliminate CO2 emissions. Fossil fuels' CO2 emissions have contributed to the warming of the last 170 years, but that warming has been mild and manageable—1° C, mostly in colder parts of the world.

Fossil fuels have actually made us far safer from climate by providing low-cost energy for the amazing machines that protect us against storms, protect us against extreme temperatures, and alleviate drought. Climate disaster deaths have decreased *98%* over the last century.

Please, @Sen_JoeManchin, for the sake of this country and for your state, stop “Build Back Better”—then work with both parties on new legislation that *liberates*, not strangles, American energy, including promising low-carbon alternatives like nuclear.

Sincerely,
Alex Epstein

Here’s my full letter to @Sen_JoeManchin, with comprehensive references. alexepstein.substack.com/p/why-build-ba…