"MacArthur's Pearl Harbor" AKA the Dec 8, 1941 destruction of FEAF air power at Clarke Field is the subject of this thread.

(Photo: Destroyed P-35 fighters on Clark Field)
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One of the important things to know about General Douglas MacArthur was that almost nothing said or written about him can be trusted without extensive research to validate its truthfulness.

There were a lot of reasons for this. The biggest being that if the Clinton era
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political concept of “The Politics of Personal Destruction” had been around in the 1930s through 1950s, Gen. MacArthur’s face would have been its poster boy.

Everything he did was personal & that made everything everyone else did in opposition to him “personal” to them. Thus

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...followed rounds of name calling, selective reporting & political partisanship that have utterly polluted the historical record and require lots of research to untangle.

A case in point is the Dec. 8th 1941 attack on Clark Field and the massacre of the FEAF B-17 force.
4/
This 2007 article by Michael Gough titled “Failure and Destruction, Clark Field, the Philippines, December 8, 1941″ is a good example of the accepted narrative of the Clark Field attack.

The problem with it is its underlying assumptions are wrong.
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militaryhistoryonline.com/wwii/articles/…
The biggest is the assumption 19 B-17D's (w/o tail guns or self-sealing fuel tanks) of the 19th Bombardment Group could have done anything useful before dying horribly.

Just...no.

Both the blame MacArthur for not making a decision on the loss of the FEAF at Clark field,
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and the USAAF’s “If only the B-17’s struck first” propaganda defending General Hap Arnold’s and General Marshall’s reputations post-war, just are not supported by the facts.

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Let' suppose at 0330 8 Dec 1941, HQ USAFFE gave Gen. Brereton permission to launch his bomber force at Clark (19 B-17s) against the Japanese facilities on Formosa.

What damage would have been inflicted on the Japanese?

Absolutely Nothing...because Formosa was fogged in.

8/
The 19th Bombardment Group B-17's would have returned to Clark field at 8:00am on 8 Dec 1941 to get refueled and been on the ground when the delayed by fog IJNAS air strike arrived to destroy them.

9/
More modern evaluations — AKA less colored by immediate post-war reputation protection and organizational agendas — of the FEAF performance are more telling.

The best look at that I have seen on that debacle is in Chpt 10 of Why Air Forces Fail: The Anatomy of Defeat
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edited by Robin Higham and Stephen J. Harris, which evaluated the real readiness of the Far Eastern Air Force on Dec 8, 1941.

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cybermodeler.com/hobby/ref/upk/…
That essay, titled “The United States in the Pacific” by Mark Parillo, addresses the FEAF Philippines performance starting at page 296.

The bottom line was that the B-17 force at Clark field did not have:

1) The photo intelligence to effectively strike Formosa with
12/
...the limited number of bombs available at Clark Field. There were no pre-war overflights of Formosa, no human intelligence and thus no intelligence photos for inexperience photo interpreters to work from,

2) The B-17 did not have the accuracy to strike ships at sea.
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3) Nor did the B-17 force have the logistical chops in its supporting P-40 fighters. Which lacked both coolant & O2 for high altitude operations & had no drop tanks to conduct escorted strikes w/B-17s.

14/
5) The B-17 force at Clark Air field were pre B-17E models lacking tail guns and powered turret guns. Thus they were dead meat for Japanese A6M Zero/Zeke fighters with 20mm cannon on Formosa.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B-17_Flyi…
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6) There was no effective ground early warning system at Clark Field, as Captain Chennault’s exercise-tested-as-effective telephone, radio & binocular equipped ground observer system was drummed out of the Army Air Service as a threat to the Bomber Mafia clique’s B-17 budget.
16/
The B-17 force was sold as a high value “force in being” to the War Dept. & Gen Marshall in particular, such that it made the force’s commitment without a clear high-value target — like a Japanese invasion convoy — a non-starter, given a lack of clear targets on Formosa.
17/
The B-17s were billed a strategic force in being not to be committed lightly. MacArthur didn’t commit them & got his head handed to him.

In 20-20 hindsight, the best option after skipping on the dawn launch of Dec 8th would have been to send B-17s and many P-40s to Mindanao

18/
for a try on Dec 9th.

But had MacArthur dropped his B-17s on Formosa Dec 9th, swarms of vengeful A6M Zeros would have clawed them out of the sky on their return trip to Clark field.

Which they could have done, as they were both faster than B-17s and had the range to trail
19/
them all the way to Clark Field. And MacArthur would have been dinged for committing them before he knew what he was up against.

Sometimes everything you do is wrong, including nothing.

Such was the case for MacArthur on Dec 8th 1941.
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The pattern of Axis versus Allied air power in WW2 was that the two major Axis powers had made the transition to 1st-generation piston-engined monoplane fighters & bombers. It took a year of these advanced aircraft being in service before they could be used to best advantage
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Germany & Japan had that time, in combat, to make that transition. The FEAF at Clark Field didn't.

Clark field was too close to a modern, combat tested Japanese airpower to survive & nothing Gen MacArthur did or didn’t do would have changed that.

The enemy gets a vote.

/End.
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More from @TrentTelenko

9 Dec
@Vausterlitz1 It was not a "dumb" question.

It is just one that has not been well answered.

On 11 January 1942, the IJA completed a study on whether Hawaii could be successfully invaded and, if it could, what would be needed to retain the islands.
@Vausterlitz1 They concluded:

Yes, we can capture it, but supplying would be very hard due to shipping tonnage shortages.

Namely, food to feed 500,000 Americans plus the Japanese Garrison would have to be carried across 4,000 miles of ocean;
@Vausterlitz1 because these were the breakdowns by food grown on Hawaii for consumption:

fruit (84%)
rice (10%)
dairy products (28%)
fish (30%)
eggs (40%)
meat (41%)
vegetables (46%)

The IJA officer noted that 2.9 million tons of supplies had been sent by the US to Hawaii during 1941; or
Read 7 tweets
7 Dec
The subject of this thread is "The Forgotten and Buried Intelligence Lessons of Pearl Harbor, December 7th, 1941."

It is both a 2019 column of mine on the Chicagoboyz blog & an enduring lesson for today.

chicagoboyz.net/archives/61235…
1/
The successful surprise Kido Butai carrier fleet movement to Pearl Harbor was the result of a sophisticated the denial and deception measures to blind allied signals intelligence as to their movements.
2/
A deceptive movement that worked thanks to the hard work & diligence of both Adm Isoroku Yamamoto's staff planners as well as pre-war Japanese intelligence.

The IJN played the US Pacific Fleet's operational tendencies like a harp.

3/
Read 42 tweets
9 Nov
The issues that @fortisanalysis founder, @man_integrated spoke about recently piece on why the USA may never recover from the current supply chain disruptions have a historical analog in WW2 military supply chains.

That will be this thread's subject
1/
Intercontinental logistics is never easy. Even more so when there is a thinking enemy of the other side shooting holes in them.

Yet for all that, the US never got the single most important piece right the clearing cargo through ports & beaches.

See the WW2 D-Day example.
2/ ImageImage
In the Pacific theaters, it was far worse.

The tyranny of distance, no/poor infrastructure, bureaucracy, and inter-service politics were bigger foes than the Japanese.

3/ ImageImageImageImage
Read 30 tweets
30 Oct
CASEY HANDMER'S BLOG has a hugely important piece on Starship. If a space firm misunderstands this passage:

"A dollar spent on mass optimization no longer buys a dollar saved on launch cost. It buys nothing."

It's doomed

caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2021/10/28/sta…
His blog's comparison of NASA's SLS based Artemis architecture versus a Lunar program based on Starship makes the point.

This is a phase change difference in access to space akin from the X-Atlantic air travel jump from Charles Lindberg to the wide body jet in 5-years.
2/
For the logistical types, these are your current price points:

$100,000/kg for LEO bulk cargo
$1,000,000/kg(+) for deep space exploration.

Starship will do 100 ton (+) chunks for <$10m per launch.

It will be launching several hundred times a year w/in 5-years.
3/
Read 12 tweets
30 Oct
@man_integrated >>Measured by American manufacturing output (given the constraints) during a crisis, I'd say FDR wins in a walk.

Just...no.

FDR did hugely destructive things to the US mobilization with hugely unrealistic production goals in aircraft & tanks that took until 1943 to unsnarl.
1/
@man_integrated In creating this logistical dysfunction he was hugely aided by the US Army war mobilization plan.

Jim Lacey's "Keep From All Thoughtful Men - How U.S. Economists Won World War II" deals with a lot of this FDR Administration dysfunction.
2/
@man_integrated There is a more granular feel is how the FDR's unrealistic goals whipsawed A/C procurement in this Green book:

UNITED STATES ARMY IN WORLD WAR II
Special Studies
BUYING AIRCRAFT: MATERIEL
PROCUREMENT FOR THE
ARMY AIR FORCES
by
Irving Brinton Holley, ir.
history.army.mil/html/books/011… Image
Read 5 tweets
27 Oct
@adachi_austin_ Wikipedia has a useful article on the Jan 28th incident.

It certainly seems to explain the acceleration of IJN aviation technical development by then Rear Admiral Yamamoto. Who served as chief of the Technological Division of the Naval Air Corps
1929-1934
@adachi_austin_ The IJN adapted a US Fairchild radio compass in its A5M Claude, H6K Mavis and "Rikko" Type 96 land-based attack aircraft the Mitsubishi G3M designs.

Radio beacons associated with the Fairchild radio compass were deployed through out the Empire no later than 1937.
@adachi_austin_ The radio beacons were associated with a map grid system applied around Japanese home islands and possessions.

The Western Allies were unaware of the extent of this grid mapping until the Marianas were over run in the Summer of 1944. This grid network was ~decade old by then.
Read 6 tweets

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