THREAD
Here is my overview of the week in Omicron news:
- the latest data from South Africa
- the major findings from preliminary vaccine studies
- the lessons of specific outbreaks in Oslo and the NYC anime convention
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Here is my overview of the week in Omicron news:
- the latest data from South Africa
- the major findings from preliminary vaccine studies
- the lessons of specific outbreaks in Oslo and the NYC anime convention
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
SOUTH AFRICA p1
Case growth is absolutely ferocious, and the evidence of breakthroughs is overwhelming. The estimated reproduction rate is higher than any other point of the pandemic. Omicron is spreading very, very fast right now.
Case growth is absolutely ferocious, and the evidence of breakthroughs is overwhelming. The estimated reproduction rate is higher than any other point of the pandemic. Omicron is spreading very, very fast right now.
SOUTH AFRICA p2
The share of hospitalized patients in the ICU or on O2 is 50% lower than during same stage of Delta. Some evidence that the avg hospital patient is being discharged faster, too.
The share of hospitalized patients in the ICU or on O2 is 50% lower than during same stage of Delta. Some evidence that the avg hospital patient is being discharged faster, too.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1468310555844874257?s=20
SOUTH AFRICA p3
“We are seeing breakthrough infections of people who have been vaccinated, but the infections we’re seeing are very mild to moderate."
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
I was willing to write off these kind of quotes as hopium. But, for now, they match the data.
“We are seeing breakthrough infections of people who have been vaccinated, but the infections we’re seeing are very mild to moderate."
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
I was willing to write off these kind of quotes as hopium. But, for now, they match the data.
~CAUTION INTERLUDE~
The absence of bad news on severe illness is ... good news. But none of this proves the virus has mutated to become less severe. We can't rule out possibility that Omicron is similarly virulent but SA's immunity profile (eg, high Delta exposure) is distinct.
The absence of bad news on severe illness is ... good news. But none of this proves the virus has mutated to become less severe. We can't rule out possibility that Omicron is similarly virulent but SA's immunity profile (eg, high Delta exposure) is distinct.
THE EARLY RESEARCH p1
The South Africa study: Huge drop in neutralizing antibodies vs Omicron. Worrying. But hybrid immunity—prior infection + vax—was "outstanding." And 3 doses may partially recapitulate that.
NB: Plasma study for NAbs is v imperfect snapshot of protection.
The South Africa study: Huge drop in neutralizing antibodies vs Omicron. Worrying. But hybrid immunity—prior infection + vax—was "outstanding." And 3 doses may partially recapitulate that.
NB: Plasma study for NAbs is v imperfect snapshot of protection.
THE EARLY RESEARCH p2
From Sweden and Germany: Similar tests, similar results. Antibodies from people with 2 doses of Pfizer fared poorly against Omicron. Worrying for breakthroughs. But imperfect proxy for protection & immune system includes killer Ts these studies can't assess
From Sweden and Germany: Similar tests, similar results. Antibodies from people with 2 doses of Pfizer fared poorly against Omicron. Worrying for breakthroughs. But imperfect proxy for protection & immune system includes killer Ts these studies can't assess
THE EARLY RESEARCH p3
The Pfizer study: Very similar upshot. "Preliminary lab studies demonstrate that three doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine neutralize the Omicron variant while two doses show significantly reduced neutralization titers."
pfizer.com/news/press-rel…
The Pfizer study: Very similar upshot. "Preliminary lab studies demonstrate that three doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine neutralize the Omicron variant while two doses show significantly reduced neutralization titers."
pfizer.com/news/press-rel…
THE OUTBREAKS p1
Oslo
A Norway Xmas party, vaxxed attendees. Of the 120 people present, 50%+ have breakthrus, with many Omicron confirmations.
They have reportedly experienced a range of cold-like symptoms. No serious cases.
wsj.com/articles/omicr…
Oslo
A Norway Xmas party, vaxxed attendees. Of the 120 people present, 50%+ have breakthrus, with many Omicron confirmations.
They have reportedly experienced a range of cold-like symptoms. No serious cases.
wsj.com/articles/omicr…
THE OUTBREAKS p2
NYC Anime Convention
All attendees required to have at least 1 shot. In one cluster of 35 ppl, 15 tested positive for COVID, likely all Omicron. Of those, 14 had mild symptoms—one had "a bad day.”
cnn.com/2021/12/07/hea…
NYC Anime Convention
All attendees required to have at least 1 shot. In one cluster of 35 ppl, 15 tested positive for COVID, likely all Omicron. Of those, 14 had mild symptoms—one had "a bad day.”
cnn.com/2021/12/07/hea…
ANECDOTE CHECK
Why do the Oslo and NYC anecdotes matter, at all?
For now, they offer a similar takeaway as the South Africa data and the preliminary studies. For the vaccinated in particular, the theme is: an abundance of breakthroughs + a relative scarcity of severe illness.
Why do the Oslo and NYC anecdotes matter, at all?
For now, they offer a similar takeaway as the South Africa data and the preliminary studies. For the vaccinated in particular, the theme is: an abundance of breakthroughs + a relative scarcity of severe illness.
My big Omicron takeaway for now is:
- optimism for the boosted
- anticipating high breakthrough rates for non-boosted but vaxxed; hopeful for mild illness
- uncertainty for the unvaccinated
- fear for the elderly and the under-vaccinated global South
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
- optimism for the boosted
- anticipating high breakthrough rates for non-boosted but vaxxed; hopeful for mild illness
- uncertainty for the unvaccinated
- fear for the elderly and the under-vaccinated global South
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
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