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Michael McFaul Profile picture
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10 Dec, 4 tweets, 1 min read
"Biden should state publicly his desire to reinvigorate diplomacy to end the war in eastern Ukraine..." 1 THREAD
, including naming a senior envoy to represent the United States in these negotiations and insisting that the United States formally join Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France to reinvigorate the now moribund Normandy talks tasked with ending the war in eastern Ukraine. 2/
Such an announcement would dispel the absurd Russian claim that Washington and Kyiv are scheming to restore Ukrainian sovereignty over Donbas by military force ... 3/
"...and also end the dangerous Russian pursuit of a U.S.-Russian bilateral negotiation track to determine Ukraine’s fate without Ukrainians in the room." 4/ END THREAD
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…

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More from @McFaul

Michael McFaul Profile picture
7 Dec
"Biden should state publicly his desire to reinvigorate diplomacy to end the war in eastern Ukraine... 1/ THREAD.
"including naming a senior envoy to represent the United States in these negotiations and insisting that the United States formally join Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France to reinvigorate the now moribund Normandy talks tasked with ending the war in eastern Ukraine." 2/
"Such an announcement would dispel the absurd Russian claim that Washington and Kyiv are scheming to restore Ukrainian sovereignty over Donbas by military force..." 3/
Read 4 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
6 Dec
In my 5 years in the US government (2009-2014), NATO expansion to Ukraine was a non-issue in U.S.-Russia relations & U.S.-Ukraine relations. 1/ THREAD
In 2010, Medvedev even attended the NATO summit in Lisbon. He said, "The meeting… was historic in terms of its spirit and atmosphere." (I was there; he was thrilled to be at the meeting.) 2/
While attending Obama, Biden, Clinton, Lavrov, Donilon, etc. meetings with Putin/Medvedev/Lavrov, and listening in on nearly every phone call between Obama and Russians for 5 years, I cannot recall a serious contentious exchange about NATO expansion. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
5 Dec
The job of an intelligence officer is to make probabilistic assessments about the intentions of foreign actors. The job of a US foreign policymaker or diplomat is to try to shape those intentions in ways that serve US interests. 1/THREAD.
If the IC assesses that the probability of Putin invading Ukraine is 10%, then the job of Biden, Blinken, Sullivan et al is to reduce that percentage to 5% or 1%. 2/
Those spending so much time arguing about probabilities should spend more time discussing creative ways to influence these probabilities, no matter if you think it's 70% or 10% probability of invasion. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
5 Dec
After 30 years of either liberal internationalism or all-out war, American strategists have forgotten the tools of "coercive diplomacy" for dealing with great power adversaries. Everyone should go back and read Alex George. Some recommendations: 1/ THREAD.
The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy: Laos, Cuba, Vietnam (with David K. Hall & William Simmons). Boston: Little Brown, 1971. (Expanded Second Edition, 1994, with William E. Simmon.) 2/
Deterrence in American Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice (with Richard Smoke). New York: Columbia University Press, 1974. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
21 Nov
Even at the peak of Reagan's constructive engagement with apartheid South Africa, U.S. officials criticized the regime. (though not nearly enough as I wanted at that time!) THREAD 1/
Reagan's Asst Secy for Africa Chester Crocker said that the US wanted to see "the emergence in South Africa of a society with which the United States can pursue its varied interests in a full and friendly relationship, without constraint, embarrassment or political damage." 2/
"The nature of the South African political system prevents us from having such a relationship now. That goal will remain elusive in the absence of purposeful, evolutionary change toward a nonracial system." 3/
Read 4 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
21 Nov
Posting a series of articles that up to a Plan B. (Note a grand strategy cannot be summarized in a "tweet" or a phase expressing a desired objective (that's not a strategy)

How to Contain Putin’s Russia
A Strategy for Countering a Rising Revisionist Power
foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukrai…
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
Read 5 tweets

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