How Boris Johnson's electorate is starting to unravel. A short thread 1/?
Almost 2 yrs ago to the day Johnson won the largest majority for any Conservative since 1987. He did so by pushing through the realignment of British politics, reshaping the Conservative vote around Leavers. He promised 3 things. Brexit. Strong borders. A levelled up country.
His victory was emphatic. He won 76% of Leavers (& a not insignificant 26% of Remainers). And in the early months of his premiership he retained almost all of them, holding over 90% of his 2019 coalition together
It was more blue-collar, non-graduate, northern &, partly as a result, more culturally conservative -- more determined to make Brexit a success, more focused on strengthening borders, more patriotic & more critical of the liberal consensus. It was the new Conservative electorate.
It was also ruthlessly efficient in a first past post system. What ppl miss about Johnson's coalition is its geography. Johnson's opponents congregate heavily but narrowly in cities & university towns; his voters are spread out more evenly. So long as he retains Leavers he wins
And even 6 months ago -despite the furore over Cummings, Covid, etc.- most of these voters were still willing to give Boris benefit of doubt. Such was their opposition to the old consensus that they were willing to look past his personal failings in the hope of a new consensus
6 months ago, when Cons still had big lead over Lab, 70% of 2019 Cons were still lining up behind Boris, as were more than half (51%) of Leavers. Only about one in five Cons, 18%, had drifted into apathy, saying they wouldn't vote, didn't know who to vote for or refused to say
But now fast forward to today. The Leave Dam that Theresa May & then Boris erected in 2019 is breaking. The % of 2019 Cons lining up behind Johnson is down to 54%. The % of Leavers is down to 37%. Meanwhile the % of Cons drifting into apathy or other parties has rocketed to 38%
Remarkably, if you just look at the raw numbers & don't filter out undecideds or don't knows then over 60% of the Leave vote is no longer aligning with Johnson. This is becoming a major problem for a party & political project that has been completely reshaped around Leave voters
Another canary in the coalmine for Johnson is the new Reform party. In last 6 months their support has basically doubled among 2019 Conservatives (as reflected in their 7% at Bexley & Sidcup by election). Its nowhere near where UKIP once was but could be in the months to come
Clearly, Leavers are not the whole story. Johnson's support among Remainers is also down (approx 5 pts). But remember they are a much smaller share of the Con electorate & the size of the (viable) Blue Wall is massively exaggerated. Johnson's primary problem is with Leavers.
Labour is not currently benefitting from a positive endorsement of either their policies or leader. Starmer remains v weak, is widely seen by approx. 60% as not prime ministerial & on increasingly salient issues like immigration & economy Labour has serious legacy problems
We are also heading into re-run of 2015. Amid tighter polls, Cons will warn against a Lab-SNP coalition & use that to mobilise England. Cameron used 2015 EU Ref to do that. Cons may use illegal migration & culture wars. Either way as a strategy it plays to new Conservative voters
This is why I think if Johnson can get No 10 in order (big if!) Cons still have huge advantage at next GE. Need to cut through noise, repair relationship with 2019 voters & double down on them. But personally I'm not convinced Johnson's advisors understand who they are. Ends.

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More from @GoodwinMJ

11 Oct
Intellectual and academic freedom in Britain and other Western nations. A thread where I will compile ongoing pieces of research & cases as they are released 1/?
Full disclosure. I have publicly stated that I think this is a serious issue, I have given evidence to (UK) parliament on it & I support the UK Higher Education & Academic Freedom Bill. I appreciate people have different views but such a thread might be useful.
Once Cambridge academics are allowed to vote anonymously & not publicly, the vast majority of them reject proposals to insist students & staff be ‘respectful’ of opposing views in favour of being "tolerant"
spectator.co.uk/article/cambri…
Read 34 tweets
27 Sep
"Gina Miller to launch a new anti-Brexit party". Have people learned nothing from Change UK? And does Labour really need ANOTHER party splitting it's vote? Hard to avoid the conclusion that this is more about ego than Britain.
Labour is currently losing 15-20% of its 2019 vote to an assortment of Lib Dems, Greens, Plaid, etc. Lavishing the Brahmin graduate left with yet another cosmopolitan anti-Brexit party will only weaken their cause 1/2
2/2 this will likely be magnified by the absence of Brexit Party alternative in 2023/24. If you strip away Brexit Party candidates from 2019 election Boris would probably have majority over 100. Ppl forgetting this. Realignment could still easily smash Lab & warring progressives
Read 4 tweets
8 Sep
This is what leaning left on the economy and leaning right on culture looks like. It is a new era in British politics.
Johnson's premiership has so far delivered Brexit, reformed migration, shifted conversation to levelling up & presided over massive expansion of state. New measures will now see tax burden rise to 35%-ish of gdp by 2023/24, highest level since 1940s.
Contrary to old left v right, much of this will sit well among cross pressured voters who lean left on econ, want bigger state, & right on culture, back Johnson/Brexit/Britain. Is especially important group for Johnson coalition & also many more in Red Wall 2.0.
Read 4 tweets
4 Aug
A major theme in post-Brexit Britain is @BorisJohnson 's pledge to "level-up" regions & communities that were left behind. Conservatives cannot retain power unless they deliver. @Keir_Starmer cannot return Labour to power unless he sets out credible alternative [Thread]
But it remains poorly defined & understood. What do we mean by levelling-up? How can we measure whether areas are improving or deteriorating? How can citizens, communities & councils hold gvt to account? How can policymakers identify what is working vs what is not?
We @LegatumInst have been exploring these issues for past few months & working with lots of councils, policymakers, academics & stakeholders to build the UK Prosperity Index -a tool that we think can help gvt, councils & citizens get to grips with levelling-up
Read 16 tweets
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New study confirms the last 5 years on Twitter. Labour voters & Remainers considerably more likely to distance themselves from people who hold different ideological views & to voice hostility toward them. Conservatives, Leavers less likely to do so.
kcl.ac.uk/news/liberals-…
Read 4 tweets
5 Mar
A 25-point lead for Conservatives among working-class; Conservatives 52%, Labour 27%. Today's YouGov.
London breaks 44 versus 34 for Labour. Southern England breaks 51 versus 29 for Conservatives.
Same old problem for Labour as 2019. 71% of Leavers rally round Conservatives, 47% Remainers rally around Labour
Read 5 tweets

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