I don't buy stocks once they're over 5% of my portfolio.

But if I did, I'd certainly be buying $AXON today.

Here's why ⤵️
1) Perhaps the best mission statement I've ever seen
2) The core business.

If you're unfamiliar, this company makes

* TASER stun guns
* Axon body cameras
* A whole bunch of software that helps save TONS of time for police and other public servants

That last point is the most important for investors
3) Results

As you can see, those physical products drive sales, but its the high-margin recurring revenue from cloud (read: software) products that are the real story
4) Moat

Not only is this a functional monopoly, but the switching costs are enormous.

Once police forces start using these products, they're customers for the long-haul.

A little proof⤵️
5) Stellar balance sheet without any concentration

That makes it very anti-fragile
6) Founder-led business

Not only did Rick Smith found the company and stay at the helm for two decades, he gave up his salary for equity rewards.

Some might gripe the rewards are *too* rich, but I still appreciate the plan
If you want to see a video of this, @BrianFeroldi and I just published a 9 min video on $AXON

If you like that, subscribe to our Channel, where we publish 3-4 videos -- absolutely free -- every week

youtube.com/brianferoldiyt…
To review:

$AXON:

1) Has stellar mission
2) Combined hardware with software
3) 📈 results
4) Wide moat
5) 💰Balance Sheet
6) Founder led

It's also down 33% from highs

And it gets this score from @BrianFeroldi and I

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Brian Stoffel

Brian Stoffel Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Brian_Stoffel_

1 Dec
In 2008, I found @themotleyfool
In 2010, my wife and I retired from teaching

We rolled over our 403(b)s

➡️Balance on 12/31/11 = $31,352
➡️Balance this morning = $310,717

📈That's 891% in ~ 10 years (26% annually)

How I did it, and what I own now⤵️
Holdings from ALL accounts (ex-cash)

1) $SHOP ~18% of portfolio, combined returns 2,600%
2) $MDB 7%, 550%
3) $MELI 7%, 700%
4) $CRWD 7%, 550%
5) $SE 6%, 100%
6) $DDOG 6%, 400%
7) $TEAM 5%, 200%
8) $AXON 5%, 500%
9) $AMZN 5%, 1,700%
10) $U 5%, 100%
11) $VEEV 4%, 700%

Con't
12) $GOOG 4%, 700%
13) $ABNB 3%, 10%
14) $ISRG 3%, 800%
15) $DOCU 3%, 10%
16) $PAYC 3%, 850%
17) $SNOW 2%, 25%
18) $GBTC 1%, 750%
19) $ZEN 1%, 300%
20) $TSLA 1%, 100%
21) $PATH 1%, (5%)
22) $PUBM 1%, 30%
23) $ZM 1%, (15%)
24) $SEMR <1%, (10%)
25) $RSKD <1%, (75%)

HOW I DID IT⤵️
Read 6 tweets
29 Nov
Over the past decade, I've been blessed with:

✅27% annualized returns
📈That's roughly 1,000% total

One of the keys behind those results: Looking for something that's often ignored by analysts...⤵️
OPTIONALITY

The practice of TESTING out a new product or service in an effort to fulfill its mission.

🔴If it doesn't work, it's no big deal -- it was just a test.
🟢If it does work, it's a game-changer.

Critically, the company already needs a wide-moat rev stream to count on
No company is a better example of this than AMAZON $AMZN

In 1999, books and music were the wide moat business. It decided to test:

🔴Amazon Auction (failed)
🟢3rd Party Merchants (huge success)
Read 9 tweets
22 Nov
Admitting your mistakes as an investor is crucial. It makes you:

✅Accountable
✅A better investor.

In that light, when @BrianFeroldi and I reviewed Peloton in June 2021, I liked it so much that I bought shares.

Since then, it dove 60%.

$PTON

Here's what I'm doing⤵️
First, I need to REVIEW MY REASONS FOR BUYING

Because of our YouTube channel, this is pretty easy. Can just pull up the results of my framework, and immediately make changes to the OBJECTIVE variables
Right off the bat, I know there's NO meaningful change to:

1⃣ Concentration Risk
2⃣ Glassdoor Reviews
3⃣ Founder's Role
4⃣ Insider Ownership

🔴Finances, however, changed a ton -- which lowered the company's score to a 9 overall
Read 12 tweets
15 Nov
Market Crashes are Scary 😱

They don't have to be 😌

Here are four actionable steps to transform them
1⃣
2⃣
3⃣
4⃣

A mini-thread⤵️
1⃣Prepare INTELLECTUALLY

If you're around long enough, bad stuff WILL happen.

Our example: Russian Roulette

If you play one round, you have a 83% chance of survival (five empty chambers of six)

But if you agree to five rounds, you only have 40% chance of living
1⃣Prepare INTELLECTUALLY

Let's apply to investing: a 30% drop in market occurs ~once per decade.

Odds of NO 30% drop in one year = 90%

But if you invest for 30 years (as many do), *at least* one such drop is guaranteed. This uses same math as above, but with 9➗10
Read 12 tweets
30 Oct
In 2010, wife & I quit teaching. Rolled over 403(b)s

Those accounts have grown:

✅27% annually
📈That's 910% total.

This isn't to brag, it's to be accountable for my @themotleyfool writing and my YouTube channel with @BrianFeroldi

How we did it & my portfolio today ⤵️
As @nntaleb says, "Don't tell me what you believe, SHOW me your portfolio."

Actions > Words

So here it is, excluding cash, as of the start of November.

Since 1/1/12: 910% returns
Since 1/1/17: 625%
Since 1/1/19: 360%
Since 1/1/2020: 183%
YTD: 24%

The portfolio⤵️
1) $SHOP 16% of port. (~2,500% combined returns)
2) $MELI 8% (900%)
3) $CRWD 8% (350%)
4) $SE 7% (150%)
5) $MDB 7% (600%)
6) $TEAM 6% (300%)
7) $DDOG 5% (350%)
8) $AXON 5% (500%)
9) $VEEV 5% (800%)
10) $AMZN 5% (1,700%)
11) $GOOG 4% (800%)
12) $U 4% (65%)
⤵️
Read 8 tweets
19 Oct
Nassim Taleb's @nntaleb work has adjusted my MINDSET to always consider his worldview.

My favorite book = ANTIFRAGILE

There are lots of heuristics I've developed from the book, but ONE stands out for its

✅Counter-intuitiveness
✅Real-World Applications

🧵⤵️
That is:

Given two choices, ALWAYS favor the one with:

😡Known Downside & Unknown Upside

OVER

😻Known Upside & Unknown Downside

The applicability in Life and Investing is under-appreciated...yet vast
And if you understand Anti-Fragility, it makes sense.

Something must have known (and acceptable) downside to stand the test of time. It must also *at least* have exposure to upside.

But no matter how great the upside is, if the downside leads to RUIN, it isn't worth it
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(