In 2010, wife & I quit teaching. Rolled over 403(b)s

Those accounts have grown:

✅27% annually
📈That's 910% total.

This isn't to brag, it's to be accountable for my @themotleyfool writing and my YouTube channel with @BrianFeroldi

How we did it & my portfolio today ⤵️
As @nntaleb says, "Don't tell me what you believe, SHOW me your portfolio."

Actions > Words

So here it is, excluding cash, as of the start of November.

Since 1/1/12: 910% returns
Since 1/1/17: 625%
Since 1/1/19: 360%
Since 1/1/2020: 183%
YTD: 24%

The portfolio⤵️
1) $SHOP 16% of port. (~2,500% combined returns)
2) $MELI 8% (900%)
3) $CRWD 8% (350%)
4) $SE 7% (150%)
5) $MDB 7% (600%)
6) $TEAM 6% (300%)
7) $DDOG 5% (350%)
8) $AXON 5% (500%)
9) $VEEV 5% (800%)
10) $AMZN 5% (1,700%)
11) $GOOG 4% (800%)
12) $U 4% (65%)
⤵️
13) $ISRG 3% (900%)
14) $ABNB 3% (10%)
15) $DOCU 3% (25%)
16) $SNOW 2% (30%)
17) $GBTC 1% (800%)
18) $TSLA 1% (85%)
19) $ZEN 1% (300%)
20) $PTON 1% (-25%)
21) $PATH 1% (0%)
22) $PUBM 1% (-5%)
23) $RSKD 1% (-50%)
24) $SEMR 1% (10%)
Most credit ➡️ Motley Fool Stock Advisor.

Of the 24 stocks we own today,
✅9 are picks in the service
🥧They account for 48% of our portfolio

You can subscribe for less than $9/month using this (AFFILIATE) link

fool.com/stoffel
Why do an affiliate link?

1⃣ I believe deeply in the service
2⃣ Any revenue from it = focus on my YouTube channel with @BrianFeroldi

We don't want to pick stocks. We want to teach what we've learned -- for ANYONE to use (it's free!)

youtube.com/brianferoldiyt…
And to review the TOP TEN (72% of port) positions:

1) $SHOP - Shopify
2) $MELI - Mercadolibre
3) $CRWD - CrowdStrike
4) $SE - Sea Ltd.
5) $MDB - MongoDB
6) $TEAM - Atlassian
7) $DDOG - Datadog
8) $AXON - Axon Enterprise
9) $VEEV - Veeva Systems
10) $AMZN - Amazon
Don't know how, but left $PAYC (3% position) and $ ZM (1%) off. Still own both

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More from @Brian_Stoffel_

19 Oct
Nassim Taleb's @nntaleb work has adjusted my MINDSET to always consider his worldview.

My favorite book = ANTIFRAGILE

There are lots of heuristics I've developed from the book, but ONE stands out for its

✅Counter-intuitiveness
✅Real-World Applications

🧵⤵️
That is:

Given two choices, ALWAYS favor the one with:

😡Known Downside & Unknown Upside

OVER

😻Known Upside & Unknown Downside

The applicability in Life and Investing is under-appreciated...yet vast
And if you understand Anti-Fragility, it makes sense.

Something must have known (and acceptable) downside to stand the test of time. It must also *at least* have exposure to upside.

But no matter how great the upside is, if the downside leads to RUIN, it isn't worth it
Read 11 tweets
12 Oct
In 2017, I made my first purchase of a company that is now my largest holding.

First ten shares cost ~$430.

Today, those same shares are worth ~$13,500

That's a 32X return in just four years!

Here's the stock, and three more I'm putting $$ into in search of similar results ⤵️
The company was Shopify.
$SHOP

I used my Antifragile Framework to double-check my conviction of the company.

The understanding of $SHOP from the framework even led me to buy more after a short-report a few months later

fool.com/investing/2017…
Using EXACT SAME framework, I've identified three more companies with similar potential.

The first is Axon Enterprise $AXON (already a 9-bagger for me)

Maker of TASERS, Axon body cameras & (most importantly) software solutions for police.

More on $AXON fool.com/investing/2021…
Read 9 tweets
4 Oct
I started investing ~ 10 years ago.

👨‍🏫Rolled over my 403(b) from teaching
📈Started investing it.

Since then, I've averaged 25% returns per year.

A few things have helped:

* @themotleyfool
* A huge bull market
* A framework I devised to help

My portfolio as of 10/3/21 ⤵️
1) $SHOP, 15% of port, +2,300% combined returns
2) $MELI 9%, +1,000%
3) $CRWD 7%, +300%
4) $SE 7%, +130%
5) $MDB 7%, +500%
6) $AXON 6%, +500%
7) $TEAM 6%, +220%
8) $DDOG 5%, +300%
9) $AMZN 5%, +1,600%
10) $VEEV 4%, +750%
11) $GOOG/L 4%, +700%
12) $U 4%, +40%

Continued ⤵️
13) $ABNB 3%, +10%
14) $ISRG 3%, +800%
15) $PAYC 3%, +1,000%
16) $DOCU 3%, +15%
17) $ETSY 2%, +300%
18) $SNOW 2%, +10%
19) $ZEN 1%, +350%
20) $PTON 1%, (30%)
21) $GBTC 1%, +600%
22) $ZM 1%, +7%
23) $TSLA 1%, 30%
24) $RSKD 1% (40%)

The MOST IMPORTANT aspect of each one is ...⤵️
Read 9 tweets
2 Sep
I started investing ~ 10 years ago. I've been able to achieve 26% returns *per year*

A few things have helped:

* @themotleyfool
* The combined teachings of @DavidGFool and @nntaleb (Antifragile)
* Sharing my holdings to be accountable.

My current port as of 9/1/21 ⤵️
(all Ex-cash)

1) $SHOP 17% of port, 2,600% return
2) $MELI 10%, 1,200%
3) $CRWD 7%, 350%
4) $SE 7%, 150%
5) $AXON 5%, 520%
6) $MDB 5%, 420%
7) $TEAM 5%, 200%
8) $VEEV 5%, 900%
9) $AMZN 5%, 1,700%
10) $DDOG 4%, 270%
11) $GOOG/L 4%, 750%
12) $U 3%, 40%
13) $ISRG 3%, 860%
con't
14) $DOCU 3%, 34%
15) $ABNB 3%, 0%
16) $PAYC 3%, 960%
17) $ETSY 2%, 340%
18) $SNOW 2%, 10%
19) $ZEN 2%, 385%
20) $PTON 1%, (16%)
21) $GBTC 1%, 600%
22) $ZM 1%, 16%
23) $TSLA 1%, 22%

Waiting (trading rules) to make some changes previously announced here.
Read 4 tweets
28 Aug
In 2011, wife & I quit teaching, rolled over 403(b)’s.

Since then:

💰Never earned more $$ than 2010.
🏠Bought House
👩‍👩‍👧‍👦Started family

BUT, also since then...

Our roll-overs have 10-BAGGED

Surprising lessons on how we did it 🧵
1/ It wasn’t a straight line.

2012=9% returns
2013=28%
2014=(4%)
2015=(2%)
2016=0%

From 2011 to 2016 (FIVE YEARS), entire rollover was up only 30%

Annualized = 5%

S&P 500 during that time = 12% *per year*
2/ In 2016, two things changed.

@DavidGFool asked me to vote on a @themotleyfool service for stocks
I read @nntaleb’s ANTIFRAGILE

I needed a framework to intelligently vote for @DavidGFool’s service, and @nntaleb’s work provided that.

I started working on the framework
Read 18 tweets
4 Aug
Five years ago, after reading @nntaleb's *Antifragile*, I developed a framework for identifying Antifragile companies.

In the past three months, @BrianFeroldi and I have put 23 different companies through that framework.

Here's how they scored, a 🧵⤵️
A quick caveat:

Before 2020, 7 companies had been defined as "Antifragile". Since Jan 1, 2020:

* All 7 have beaten the S&P 500's 41% returns
* The average return is 150% (+109 points)

Why this matters: 2020 was the first "chaos" to measure anti-fragility at scale.
One more caveat:

* A low score doesn't = BAD INVESTMENT. There are tons of false negative.

I'm willing to accept that, because (historically)

* A high score has always = market-beating performance

Keep that in mind, as we go through the three levels.
Read 11 tweets

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