Market Crashes are Scary 😱

They don't have to be 😌

Here are four actionable steps to transform them
1⃣
2⃣
3⃣
4⃣

A mini-thread⤵️
1⃣Prepare INTELLECTUALLY

If you're around long enough, bad stuff WILL happen.

Our example: Russian Roulette

If you play one round, you have a 83% chance of survival (five empty chambers of six)

But if you agree to five rounds, you only have 40% chance of living
1⃣Prepare INTELLECTUALLY

Let's apply to investing: a 30% drop in market occurs ~once per decade.

Odds of NO 30% drop in one year = 90%

But if you invest for 30 years (as many do), *at least* one such drop is guaranteed. This uses same math as above, but with 9➗10
Have you accepted that now?

Good, time to work on

2⃣ Emotional Preparation

Everyone says, "I can buy high and sell low"

But when you're LIVING IN IT. It's a different story.

Here's what the headlines (1987, 2008, 2020) look like
The balm for that FEAR?

1) Having No high-interest debt
2) Having emergency savings
3) Remembering what those investments are for.

And then, study what the market did over the next five years (and in case of March 2020, took a few months)
If you can accept that BAD THINGS will happen -- and that YOU'LL BE OK -- you can move on:

3⃣ Financial Preparation

As @nntaleb has taught, if you are the only one with cash when sh*#! hits the fan, you can be ANTI-FRAGILE

@morganhousel developed a plan for how to do this
3⃣ Financial Preparation

He even went back to show the power of having that optionality between 2004 and 2012.

To be clear, he (and I) am not saying to do this with ALL of your money. Just set some aside for the opportunity.
But even if you have:

1⃣Accepted that crashes will happen
2⃣Researched the benefits to staying invested when they do

And

3⃣ Have a plan for capitalizing on them...

I have bad news.

YOU'RE STILL HUMAN. AND IT'S SCARY

So you need to:

4⃣ Set up some guard-rails
Don't underestimate the power of :

* Establishing a cool-down period
* Becoming a part of a supportive investing community (H/T @themotleyfool)
* Putting up visual reminders that stock market moves should have little effect on how you live today
I have no idea when the next crash will be, but @BrianFeroldi are interested in helping make sure it's not scary.

We've made an easy-to-digest video on just this topic:

If you like it, subscribe to our channel.

We put out 3-4 FREE videos every week in the hopes of spreading financial wellness and helping people to live whole-hearted lives

youtube.com/brianferoldiyt…
To review. To prepare for a market crash:

1⃣ (INTELLECTUAL) Accept it will happen
2⃣ (EMOTIONAL) If you stay invested, you won't be harmed
3⃣ (FINANCIAL) If you have a plan, you can actually get stronger
4⃣ (GUARD RAILS) But put some structures in place in case you're wrong

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More from @Brian_Stoffel_

30 Oct
In 2010, wife & I quit teaching. Rolled over 403(b)s

Those accounts have grown:

✅27% annually
📈That's 910% total.

This isn't to brag, it's to be accountable for my @themotleyfool writing and my YouTube channel with @BrianFeroldi

How we did it & my portfolio today ⤵️
As @nntaleb says, "Don't tell me what you believe, SHOW me your portfolio."

Actions > Words

So here it is, excluding cash, as of the start of November.

Since 1/1/12: 910% returns
Since 1/1/17: 625%
Since 1/1/19: 360%
Since 1/1/2020: 183%
YTD: 24%

The portfolio⤵️
1) $SHOP 16% of port. (~2,500% combined returns)
2) $MELI 8% (900%)
3) $CRWD 8% (350%)
4) $SE 7% (150%)
5) $MDB 7% (600%)
6) $TEAM 6% (300%)
7) $DDOG 5% (350%)
8) $AXON 5% (500%)
9) $VEEV 5% (800%)
10) $AMZN 5% (1,700%)
11) $GOOG 4% (800%)
12) $U 4% (65%)
⤵️
Read 8 tweets
19 Oct
Nassim Taleb's @nntaleb work has adjusted my MINDSET to always consider his worldview.

My favorite book = ANTIFRAGILE

There are lots of heuristics I've developed from the book, but ONE stands out for its

✅Counter-intuitiveness
✅Real-World Applications

🧵⤵️
That is:

Given two choices, ALWAYS favor the one with:

😡Known Downside & Unknown Upside

OVER

😻Known Upside & Unknown Downside

The applicability in Life and Investing is under-appreciated...yet vast
And if you understand Anti-Fragility, it makes sense.

Something must have known (and acceptable) downside to stand the test of time. It must also *at least* have exposure to upside.

But no matter how great the upside is, if the downside leads to RUIN, it isn't worth it
Read 11 tweets
12 Oct
In 2017, I made my first purchase of a company that is now my largest holding.

First ten shares cost ~$430.

Today, those same shares are worth ~$13,500

That's a 32X return in just four years!

Here's the stock, and three more I'm putting $$ into in search of similar results ⤵️
The company was Shopify.
$SHOP

I used my Antifragile Framework to double-check my conviction of the company.

The understanding of $SHOP from the framework even led me to buy more after a short-report a few months later

fool.com/investing/2017…
Using EXACT SAME framework, I've identified three more companies with similar potential.

The first is Axon Enterprise $AXON (already a 9-bagger for me)

Maker of TASERS, Axon body cameras & (most importantly) software solutions for police.

More on $AXON fool.com/investing/2021…
Read 9 tweets
4 Oct
I started investing ~ 10 years ago.

👨‍🏫Rolled over my 403(b) from teaching
📈Started investing it.

Since then, I've averaged 25% returns per year.

A few things have helped:

* @themotleyfool
* A huge bull market
* A framework I devised to help

My portfolio as of 10/3/21 ⤵️
1) $SHOP, 15% of port, +2,300% combined returns
2) $MELI 9%, +1,000%
3) $CRWD 7%, +300%
4) $SE 7%, +130%
5) $MDB 7%, +500%
6) $AXON 6%, +500%
7) $TEAM 6%, +220%
8) $DDOG 5%, +300%
9) $AMZN 5%, +1,600%
10) $VEEV 4%, +750%
11) $GOOG/L 4%, +700%
12) $U 4%, +40%

Continued ⤵️
13) $ABNB 3%, +10%
14) $ISRG 3%, +800%
15) $PAYC 3%, +1,000%
16) $DOCU 3%, +15%
17) $ETSY 2%, +300%
18) $SNOW 2%, +10%
19) $ZEN 1%, +350%
20) $PTON 1%, (30%)
21) $GBTC 1%, +600%
22) $ZM 1%, +7%
23) $TSLA 1%, 30%
24) $RSKD 1% (40%)

The MOST IMPORTANT aspect of each one is ...⤵️
Read 9 tweets
2 Sep
I started investing ~ 10 years ago. I've been able to achieve 26% returns *per year*

A few things have helped:

* @themotleyfool
* The combined teachings of @DavidGFool and @nntaleb (Antifragile)
* Sharing my holdings to be accountable.

My current port as of 9/1/21 ⤵️
(all Ex-cash)

1) $SHOP 17% of port, 2,600% return
2) $MELI 10%, 1,200%
3) $CRWD 7%, 350%
4) $SE 7%, 150%
5) $AXON 5%, 520%
6) $MDB 5%, 420%
7) $TEAM 5%, 200%
8) $VEEV 5%, 900%
9) $AMZN 5%, 1,700%
10) $DDOG 4%, 270%
11) $GOOG/L 4%, 750%
12) $U 3%, 40%
13) $ISRG 3%, 860%
con't
14) $DOCU 3%, 34%
15) $ABNB 3%, 0%
16) $PAYC 3%, 960%
17) $ETSY 2%, 340%
18) $SNOW 2%, 10%
19) $ZEN 2%, 385%
20) $PTON 1%, (16%)
21) $GBTC 1%, 600%
22) $ZM 1%, 16%
23) $TSLA 1%, 22%

Waiting (trading rules) to make some changes previously announced here.
Read 4 tweets
28 Aug
In 2011, wife & I quit teaching, rolled over 403(b)’s.

Since then:

💰Never earned more $$ than 2010.
🏠Bought House
👩‍👩‍👧‍👦Started family

BUT, also since then...

Our roll-overs have 10-BAGGED

Surprising lessons on how we did it 🧵
1/ It wasn’t a straight line.

2012=9% returns
2013=28%
2014=(4%)
2015=(2%)
2016=0%

From 2011 to 2016 (FIVE YEARS), entire rollover was up only 30%

Annualized = 5%

S&P 500 during that time = 12% *per year*
2/ In 2016, two things changed.

@DavidGFool asked me to vote on a @themotleyfool service for stocks
I read @nntaleb’s ANTIFRAGILE

I needed a framework to intelligently vote for @DavidGFool’s service, and @nntaleb’s work provided that.

I started working on the framework
Read 18 tweets

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