Thread by @ClimateBen

Forecast

2022: economic growth
2023: economic growth
2024: economic growth
2025: economic growth
2026: climate chaos at 1.5C
2027: economic growth
2028: economic growth
2029: economic growth
2030: economic growth
2031-45: hell on Earth at 1.6-2C

It doesn't have to be this way🧵

1. if global warming is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius, that will prevent "most of the tropics" from reaching intolerable wet-bulb temperatures.

phys.org/news/2021-03-g…

2. 'estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 ∘C of warming.. in the second half of the current decade.. The warming level of 2 ∘C of warming is reached as early as 2039'

Unchecked conomic growth would mean 1.6C-2C catastrophe in the 2030s/2040s.

esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/25…

3. 'tipping points could be exceeded even between 1 and 2 °C of warming..

Another reassessment is now underway that suggests the threshold is closer to 1 °C'

Economic growth is wrecking the living world.

There is of course an alternative..

blog.sciencemuseum.org.uk/earth-at-a-tip…

4.'the US is unjustly consuming energy at the highest rate..not simply for the conservation & reproduction of life, but for non-productive expenditures such as luxury & war. Therefore..socio-ecological transformations that we must make must start in the US'theecologist.org/2020/jun/12/de…

5. Corporate journalists are silent on the reality of 2C being likely in the 2030s/2040s, as well as the obvious alternative : emergency degrowth action.

How to break this silence? Support independent media.

Thread on the climate-extinction situation:

https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1398228564667940864?s=20

6.

How many journalists have tweeted about this? ⬇️

https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1465675827333509126?s=20

7.

The biggest IF

https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1469653943143776256?s=20

8.

2°C by 2039-2064 assuming economic growth according to the most recent climate models (barring absurd assumptions that few scientists consider reasonable).

'Moderate' emissions scenario: 2°C by 2046, with 2032 plausible. esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/25…

9. Odds are increasing that the annual average global temperature will rise beyond 1.5°C in at least one of the next five years.. these odds are increasing with time.

90% likelihood of at least one year between 2021-2025 becoming warmest on record news.un.org/en/story/2021/…