What are the pros doing that’s so different or smarter than you??
And where might you have an edge that they don't?
HOW TO WIN. 12 strategies.
👇
1/ The simplest arb: cross-exchange
This strategy *rarely* exists today, but it makes sense to start w/ basics.
Back in the day different exchanges had different quotes. If u subscribed to multiple order book feeds **as every hedge fund does**, u might've seen smth like this:
So what do you do? Well well what a juicy buy-low-sell-high opportunity! (yellow area)
Keep lifting the offer on the lower exchange (#2) & hitting the bid on the higher exchange (#1) until the gap narrows.
Soon the gap will close.
Stop trading.
Move on to the next opportunity.
2/ Triangle arb📐
This one's also rare. If it exists, will be gobbled up by HFT bots in no time.
Triangle arb is when u can swap btw 3 different assets & end up w/ more than you started. Can occur on 1 single exchange or multiple.
Example below:
Start @ 1 BTC, end @ 1.035 BTC.
3/ FX currency arb
@QCPCapital makes heavy use of this strategy given they deal a lot with on & offramps to volatile SE Asian currencies (rupiah, ringgit, etc.)
Imagine a scenario where USD gains against RP, while BTC quotes remains the same on US & Indonesian exchanges.
A smart trade would swap USD to JPY, buy BTC in Indonesia & sell back out on a US exchange. Of course, accounting for transaction fees.
4/ Order book depth arbs
I don't know a single crypto fund that doesn't use order book feeds.
I know tons of hobby crypto traders that don't know what "order book depth" means.
For a quick intro on order book price level, read these 3 tweets:
With enough capital, you can buy through an entire price level across every exchange in the market, then sell at the next higher price level (the new best offer).
It's basically cornering the market.
5/ Spread Trading
Most crypto funds I've talked to run close to market neutral. So unlike my mother they don't make their dough aping 70% AUM in $TSLA.
The most famous market neutral strategy is the basis trade: long spot, short future (or perp).
Lock in the premium & lever up.
6/ Get Inside Information
Have you noticed that every single big crypto market maker / fund has a VC arm these days?
I'm not saying it's right or wrong. After all u can argue that ALL trading edge is information edge. But I do want to get in on those investor update calls... 🤔
7/ Acquire validator nodes & front-run
Since Dex transactions show up first in a mempool, miners can scalp for profitable trades, copy & submit their own trade ahead of the originals.
There's a story from traditional markets of some MM that deployed a trade at 10-lot increments.
Result: no profit.
Then the MM put on the exact same trade at 100-lots.
Result: made it rain.
How does that work? See #4 from earlier in this thread.
10/ Lock in special privileges on certain exchanges
Not specific to crypto (as with most other strategies I discuss here).
Let's not point fingers & offend anyone. JK let's do it.
Here the DMMs ("designated market makers") & SLPs ("supplemental liquidity providers") on NYSE:
11/ Optimize borrowing rates, capital efficiency & cost basis
Hedge funds can get lower borrow rates from sheer size & efficiency from prime brokers. Unfort, you can't beat them here.
But then there's also cost basis, i.e. a little something called TAXES. Don't trade out of SF.
12/ Clout
Clout is alpha.
Clout moves markets out of sheer reflexivity & expectations.
Step 1: Make a trade (e.g. sell DOGE)
Step 2: Tweet about it & give extensive persuasive reasons for your view, or just rely on the reflexivity of the market.
Today it's the most overlooked & misunderstood opportunity in all of DeFi, with TAM >$20B ARR.
If u don't *really* know what it is, chances are you're getting massively screwed on capital efficiency & don't even know it.
🧵/
1/ What is cross margining?
Googling this term returns only half the story.
The full picture has 2 parts:
1. cross-asset margining
(what most blogs talk about & a solved problem on most Cexs)
2. cross-exchange margining
(terribly overlooked & a problem for both Cexs & Dexs)
2/ Cross-asset margining is where an exchange lets u re-use the same aggregate account collateral to post margin on multiple trades, regardless of the composition of underlying margin assets:
e.g. whether Bob has
2x $BTC+ 8x $ETH + 100x $USDC = 128,762x $USDC
OR
128,762x $USDC
It's 2021.
😡 $1 in Chase earns 0.05% APY.
😲 1 UST in Anchor earns 20% APY!
🤯 1 UST in a market-neutral fund running 50x levered BTC contango trades earns >300% APY!
How are crypto yields SO DAMN HIGH, and is this sustainable? 🧵.
👇
1/ Yield in crypto comes from 4 main sources
a. demand for leverage (e.g. basis trading)
b. risk premia (e.g. options writing)
c. protocol revenue (e.g. staking, LP)
d. payment-in-kind (e.g. token rewards)
For each, let's explore:
- what trades are involved
- is it sustainable?
2/ But first, some stats...
Comparing lending yields from USDC (up to 8%+) vs. USD (3.25% prime rate). 👇
[Keep this in mind for when we deep-dive on "demand for leverage"]
Restricting trading between 9:30-4pm M-F is pure stupidity. It's market discrimination.
24/7 is the future
And our fastest way to get there is via crypto derivatives: on-chain markets for tokenized US equities and options.
🧵on OPTIONS MARKET-MAKING ON-CHAIN
Note: this thread is a collection of all the operational challenges and structural considerations required to bring a fully functional system of tokenized options on-chain.
Expect more questions than answers.
Because such a fully functional system doesn't yet exist.
PART 1: How "normal" options MM works
As traders we take a lot for granted. Options markets somehow "just work" in TradFi.
But how does price discovery actually work?
How do local updates propagate to rest of the options chain?
What happens to longs when shorts get liquidated?
Earning yield/ "LP"ing is marketed as "passive income" as if risk-free, but in fact that's a traitorously inaccurate sales pitch for what it ACTUALLY is:
Covered options writing.
An exposé on the real risks & returns👇.
🧵/
1/ People think it's like holding treasuries. It's not.
Returns on yield farming depend on:
- absolute returns of the underlying (aka beta)
- impermanent loss (aka relative volatility)
- fees & rewards (theta premium)
- capital concentration - @Uniswap V3 (strike selection)
Returns on treasuries (and safe/IG bonds) depend on:
- interest rates
- inflation
For high yield bonds, add:
- counter-party/default risk
- liquidity risk
Clearly "yield" in TradFi and "yield" in DeFi look NOTHING alike.
LP yield is more like betting on options premium. Why?
Crypto Market Map 101
(aka a hierarchical DeFi-TradFi mapping)
If ur a:
- crypto newbie
- confused by who's who & what they all do
- dying for someone to draw parallels btw defi & tradfi infra
- crypto entrepreneur looking for opps