We do not argue that states are irrelevant; rather, they will be more relevant if they embrace the arrow of history and work with the network, and less relevant if they attempt rearguard actions against it.

Such is the nature of great protocol politics.
foreignpolicy.com/2021/12/11/bit…
A summary.

1. Network proximity > geo proximity
2. Defi matrix → currency competition
3. Remote → market for citizens
4. Bits reshape atoms
6. Property → encryption
7. Rule of code
8. Web3 vs inequality
9. Network layers merge
10. Power decentralizes
archive.md/sYwAL
As context, this is a respectful response by me and @paragkhanna to two thoughtful articles by @ianbremmer and @stephenWalt.

You should read them as well for full context. First, here's Bremmer's piece:
archive.md/RIYYm
Roughly:

- Bremmer argues tech may change the global order
- Walt argues tech will not do so
- And we argue that it already has, and that the internet will be the dominant force above countries and companies

Here is @stephenwalt's piece. Worth a read.
archive.md/Gp0My
The difference in worldviews could be summarized as:

- Is the order mostly stable, with a few wobbles?
- Could it maybe crack?
- Or is it already done, and the chaos is just beginning?

If the last, we'll need new mechanisms to defend civil liberties.
bariweiss.substack.com/p/is-bitcoin-a…
See also this dual review of Packer & Bacevich's latest, which make similar points. Both good books. But without the tech decentralist lens, they feel like depressive summaries of what is, without a positive, constructive vision of what could feasibly be.
archive.md/wB4Il

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More from @balajis

7 Dec
Apple didn't need BlackBerry
Netflix didn't need Blockbuster
Amazon didn't need Barnes & Noble

And we don't need legacy banks or media corporations. Though we do need to replace them!
The basic reason not to interview with them is that doing so legitimates them, endorses them, grants them control — when we need to be decentralizing power away from US media corporations and towards the people of the world with every word and every deed.
One part of it is unplugging from the establishment.

But another part is building something better. Replacing corporate truth with cryptographic truth, and obviating the inherited "paper of record" through the distributed ledger of record.
Read 4 tweets
5 Dec
Astrology doesn’t work, but machine learning might.

Suppose you are Facebook or LinkedIn. You have a massive database of life histories. So you could probably do a decent forecast of where a 30-year-old with X job in Y city is likely to be in 5 years, using similar profiles.
There’s clearly tremendous demand for personalized forecasting.

Right now that market is mostly served by pseudoscience — but if we can replace the astrological with the logical, we might make progress.
An actionable version:

- here is a summary of all the people with life histories similar to you, but a few years older
- those who did X reported improvement in their lives
- those who did Y did not
- correlation isn’t causation, but can test to see if X has a causal effect
Read 4 tweets
2 Dec
Convergence.

Like China, Woke America now churns out hagiographical portrayals of party luminaries.
If you think I’m exaggerating, watch those trailers. Then look at:

1) The Founding of a Party
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Found…

2) Amazing China
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazing_C…

3) The centennial directive
cbr.com/chinese-theate…
China doesn’t make any bones about it. All must hail the ruling party.

“Chinese theaters were directed to air at least two propaganda films per week to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party.” cbr.com/chinese-theate…
Read 5 tweets
2 Dec
Robotics enables physical hyperdeflation. Labor becomes just electricity & code. Real prices for everything should fall, including cost of living, if fiat also recedes.

As a goal, if your annual crypto dividends can pay for the electricity, you should be able to live off robots.
One way to think about the world is a tug of war between (a) the inflation created by the US federal government, where printed funds prop up politically favored sectors, and (b) the global forces of technological hyperdeflation.
We see this directly with housing. Your rent is high because the Fed diluted you down to bail out banks & prop up mortgage-backed securities. And because the government limits construction via picayune regulations.

Inflation, regulation, subsidy — all to prop up the past.
Read 4 tweets
1 Dec
May be a conflict of interest, given that those very social scientists are held to be the weak men that cause hard times. 😁
In seriousness this is an excellent q that would benefit from mapping to historical events.

The canonical example is the fall of the Western Roman Empire to Odoacer and the barbarians.

A contemporary one *might* be Gorbachev’s capitulation followed by Russia in the 90s.
But that last example is interesting because the capitulation of that weak man (Gorbachev) led to *good* times for much of the former Warsaw Pact, though arguably not Russia itself till its recovery under Putin.
Read 7 tweets
1 Dec
Japan didn’t magically fail.

The US has occupied Japan continuously since WW2. And wrote its constitution. So, it had root control in a way it never did over China.

I’d long suspected this was used to punch Japan under the table somehow. Then I found a book on the topic… 🧵
@gladstein referred me to this interesting book called Super Imperialism by Michael Hudson.

Here’s his bit on Japan vs China:
mronline.org/2021/10/27/sup…
The book is worth reading. It’s interesting because it has the ring of truth on many issues.

For example, the construction of markets is itself not entirely a free market phenomenon. Force is often involved. There is a “beyond good and evil” aspect to it. bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/bitcoi…
Read 8 tweets

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