OMICRON EXPECTED DEATHS
I'm reading news such as "no one died of omicron in Europe yet, so it's milder."
However, omicron is recent, so is the lack of deaths an artifact of the simple fact that it takes time to die?
Let's figure it out by running some numbers.
I'm reading news such as "no one died of omicron in Europe yet, so it's milder."
However, omicron is recent, so is the lack of deaths an artifact of the simple fact that it takes time to die?
Let's figure it out by running some numbers.
Most of the current omicron cases got infected recently, so even those who would die eventually are not died yet.
The median delay between COVID infection and death is 11 days (computed pre-vaccine). Let's assume is correct.
The median delay between COVID infection and death is 11 days (computed pre-vaccine). Let's assume is correct.
Today is the 13th, so we want to know how many cases there were on the 2nd of December. According to ECDC, there were 79 cases.
That said, there might have been more cases than detected; let's say 4x. Total infected: 500.
That said, there might have been more cases than detected; let's say 4x. Total infected: 500.
If omicron were as deadly as delta, how many of these would we have expected of having died by today? A couple?
Let's run some good numbers by computing delta's currently mortality in Europe.
Let's run some good numbers by computing delta's currently mortality in Europe.
In Europe, we had an average of:
- yesterday and prev 2 days, 1653 deaths
- 12 days ago and prev 2 days, 250690 cases
The mortality ratio: 0.6%.
If we multiply that by the 500 omicron cases as of 2nd of Dec, we get 3 expected deaths.
- yesterday and prev 2 days, 1653 deaths
- 12 days ago and prev 2 days, 250690 cases
The mortality ratio: 0.6%.
If we multiply that by the 500 omicron cases as of 2nd of Dec, we get 3 expected deaths.
(Of course, here I'm making some simplifications; for example, some people infected later than the 2nd of December might die in less of 11 days. Or, people infected before the 2nd might die over the following days. Still, just to get a ballpark number).
So, we've said 3 expected deaths. That said, are the people infected with omicron before the 2nd of Dec representative of the general population?
No: from what I hear, they're mostly vaccinated business travelers. Whereas most deaths happen in the unvaccinated and in the elder
No: from what I hear, they're mostly vaccinated business travelers. Whereas most deaths happen in the unvaccinated and in the elder
Hence, we should reduce the expected number of deaths to one, or less than one.
And as I was writing this, the UK just announced the first death (and maybe, this afternoon we’ll learn of more).
And as I was writing this, the UK just announced the first death (and maybe, this afternoon we’ll learn of more).
To conclude: no, we cannot say that omicron is milder than delta because there’s been a single death in the EU to date – because that’s what we would have expected anyway if it weren’t milder
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