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Chad Moutray

14 Dec, 5 tweets, 2 min read

The National Federation of Independent Business reported that the Small Business Optimism Index edged up from 98.2 in October to 98.4 in November. Yet, the headline index has generally drifted lower since June (102.5). #SmallBusiness #Economy

Small business owners remain challenged by supply chain disruptions, workforce shortages, inflation and COVID-19. The net percentage expecting better business conditions 6 months from now has plummeted from -33% in Sept. to -38% in Nov., the lowest level since November 2012.

Pricing pressures remain very elevated. In Nov., the net percentage of respondents reporting higher prices today than 3 months ago jumped from 53% to a record 59%. The net percentage planning a price increase over the next three months rose from 51% to 54%, a new all-time high.

In addition, the net percentage of respondents saying that they had increased compensation in the last three months remained at a record 44%, with the net percentage planning to raise compensation in the next three months continuing to be 32%, also an all-time high.

Along those lines, hiring continued to be a challenge. Respondents once again cited difficulties in obtaining qualified labor as the top “single most important problem,” followed closely by concerns about taxes and inflation.

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Chad Moutray

@chadmoutray

15 Dec

FOMC thread:

Considering “elevated levels of inflation, “the Federal Open Market Committee accelerated the pace that it plans to taper its asset purchases, as expected.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve had bought at least $80 billion each month in Treasury securities and up to $40 billion per month in agency mortgage-backed securities.

At the November 2–3 FOMC meeting, participants had agreed to reduce those asset purchases by $10 billion and $5 billion, respectively, starting in late November.

Read 9 tweets

Chad Moutray

@chadmoutray

15 Dec

Retail sales were up 0.3% in November, slowing from 1.8% gain seen in October but rising for the fourth straight month. The increase in the latest data were disappointing relative to the consensus estimate, which was for a gain of 0.8% in November.

Yet, the data continue to reflect an American consumer that has opened their wallets over the past year as the economy has rebounded. Indeed, retail spending has soared 18.2% over the past 12 months, or 15.8% with gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts sales excluded.

In November, the largest gains in retail spending occurred at gasoline stations (up 1.7%), food and beverage stores (up 1.3%), sporting goods and hobby stores (up 1.3%), food services and drinking places (up 1.0%) and building material and garden supply stores (up 0.7%).

Read 4 tweets

Chad Moutray

@chadmoutray

15 Dec

Manufacturing activity continued to expand solidly in December, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, with the composite index edging up from 30.9 in November to 31.9 in December.

Growth in new orders, shipments, hiring and the average workweek softened slightly but at still healthy paces. Delivery times eased somewhat but remained highly elevated. Even with a slight deceleration in December, input costs expanded just shy of the record pace seen in May.

Manufacturers in the region remained upbeat about growth over the next six months, albeit with the forward-looking composite index inching down from 36.9 in November to 36.4 in December.

Read 5 tweets

Chad Moutray

@chadmoutray

14 Dec

PPI thread:

Producer prices for final demand goods & services rose 0.8% in Nov., the strongest monthly gain since July and continuing to increase very solidly YTD. Producer prices for final demand goods grew 1.2% in Nov., rising by at least 1% for the 8th time so far this year.

Food and energy costs increased 1.2% and 2.5%, respectively, for the month. Excluding food and energy, producer prices for final demand goods increased 0.8% in November, up from 0.6% in October and also the fastest since July.

Meanwhile, producer prices for final demand services rose 0.7% in November, with transportation and warehousing costs up 1.9%.

Read 6 tweets

Chad Moutray

@chadmoutray

4 Jun 20

Manufacturing labor productivity eked out a 0.2% gain at the annual rate in the first quarter, according to revised data. With the U.S. economy grappling with the economic impacts of COVID-19, output fell sharply at rates not seen since the second quarter of 2010, dropping 6.3%.

The number of hours worked decreased 6.6%, with unit labor costs up 6.9%. Labor productivity for durable goods manufacturers declined 3.5% in the first quarter, with output off 10.2%.

In contrast, output per worker for nondurable goods firms rose 4.3% in the first quarter despite output and hours worked dropping by 2% and 6.1%, respectively.

Read 4 tweets

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