Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Economy

Most recents (24)

There are some deep misconceptions about the ability of #China to recover from the economic fallout of #coronavirus relatively quickly.

In this thread, I explain why this is unlikely, and why it's not China we should be truly worried about.

Let's start with the facts. 1/
It has been obvious for a while that China's economic growth lays in unsustainable ground.

If we deduct the growth of debt on the growth of GDP, we get an estimate on the 'organic' growth rate for Chinese #economy.

Which has been negative since 2011 (till 2017). 2/
This, unsurprisingly, has led to another pressing problem. China's productivity growth turned negative in 2012.

This, quite simply, means that China has been accumulating vast amounts of unprofitable investments, at least since 2011. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Lets talk about #Argentina and the #IMF. Specifically, lets talk about the biggest IMF #Bailout in #History...
Before we start talking about #Argentina & how the #IMF has extended to them a #Bailout that is by far the biggest in the organisation's history, let us first appreciate what the functions of the IMF are...
The #IMF’s main goal is to ensure #stability of the #international #monetary & #financial #system. It helps resolve crises, and works with its 189 member countries to promote #growth & alleviate #poverty...
Read 12 tweets
A thread w/ #Bernie's excellent interviews today.
#Bernie2020 #NotMeUs #NHprimary2020

"If you do, as Mayor Buttigieg does, take huge amounts of contributors from pharma CEOs, fossil fuel financiers, insurance, Wall St, does anyone seriously believe you will stand up to them?"
Chris Wallace makes the case for Pete Buttigieg.

Sanders - "Do you think when the CEO's of the major drug companies contribute to your campaign, you will take them on? Common sense suggests ... you will not effectively represent working families." #NotMeUs #NHprimary2020
"How do you overcome the #socialist label?," Chris asks.

"In many respects, we are a socialist society today ... The difference between my socialism and Trump's socialism is I believe that government should help working families, not billionaires." #BernieBeatsTrump #Bernie2020
Read 22 tweets
1/5 A currency #crisis in 2018 opened the door for Turkey’s government to clamp down on financial markets in a way that turned inward the largest #economy in the Middle East, and spooked off foreign investors: reuters.com/article/us-tur… (thread)
2/5 President #Erdogan and his deputies say the measures, including tapping central bank legal reserves and regular #FX interventions, were needed to stabilize the #lira and boost growth – and they have had some success graphics.reuters.com/TURKEY-ECONOMY…
3/5 The investment impact in #Turkey has been dramatic: foreigners now hold only 8% of Turkish debt and mostly missed a once-a-decade bond rally, while non-residents sold a net $3.3 bln last year fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/editorchar…
Read 5 tweets
Thread on #GovernmentJobs :

Some days back, one of my Friend who was ardent BJP supporter & a staunch Hindutvavadi, suddenly turned against Modiji & started criticising Modi Govt on Economic Failure. That's absolutely fine. Yes, #Economy is in trouble.
And everyone has a right to criticise the govt. No issues about that. But, reality is he didn't care about economy. He was appearing for Banking Exams for getting a job in Nationalised Bank. And he couldn't make it in 3-4 attempts. That was the reason he suddenly started...
..criticising govt on economy. His line of criticism was "Govt is merging Banks. So no of branches will reduce. & There are less jobs available in banks. Modi govt is not creating more govt jobs. Many people are preparing for govt exams but very few are selected".
Read 29 tweets
A Bull Market and the Bear – Dow and S&P 500 #TechnicalAnalysis Part 3 - #Coronavirus articles in Asian financial media launched today's stock market plunge- by @TraderStef for @CrushTheStreet #2019nCoV #SARS 2.0 #Dow $DIA #SP500 $SPY #StockCharts crushthestreet.com/articles/techn…
@CrushTheStreet #2019nCoV #SARS 2.0 #Dow $DIA #SP500 $SPY #StockCharts - The coronavirus is just starting to have an impact on the globe’s #economy and politics cnbc.com/2020/01/31/cor…
Read 22 tweets
Global supply chain impact of #WuhanCoronavirus:
All companies in Hubei will not resume work until Feb 13 midnight at earliest, says Hubei Province governor at press briefing.

#China #economy
Hubei, #Wuhan big manufacturing hub. @SPGMI_Panjiva estimates >450 US importers supplied by companies in Hubei Province. Among top five exporting to US from there is Foxconn, key @Apple supplier, says Panjiva. #China
“We can confirm that we have measures in place to ensure that we can continue to meet all global manufacturing obligations,” Foxconn said in statement despite fears of #WuhanCoronavirus impact on supply chain. (Foxconn #China base in Shenzhen. Has 44 industrial zones, 1 in Wuhan)
Read 6 tweets
Lets talk about the upcoming 1st meeting of the #FED #FOMC (28-29 January 2020). Specifically, lets talk about the #DOTS...
The #FED #FOMC developed the so called #DotPlot in 2011 as a chart to record each FED's official forecast for the FED's key short-term interest rate (federal funds rate - #FFR). Currently, the FFR, following the December 2019 meeting is in the target range between 1.5% and 1.75%
The most recent #DotPlot is attached below. Each dot represents one #FED official, from the Chairman to fellow Governors. It is anonymous & as such, no one knows which official is responsible for what dot...
Read 10 tweets
Translation:
#Rahul Why haven't you not gone to Shaheen Bagh?
#Kejriwal: Did you go?
#Rahul: Why should I?
#Kejriwal: He won't go!
#Rahul: We report Sir!
#Kejriwal: We govern Sir! We administer!
#ShaheerBagh(1/n)

#Rahul: We've not distanced ourselves. We were reporting amongst them.
#Kejriwal: We've not distanced too. We've been running schools,hospitals,built roads,installed CCTVs.They've (#BJP) created ruckus across the country coz they don't have control on #Economic situation. (2/n)
#Kejriwal: They've created a condition that he (Pointing at #Rahul) doesn't have the strength to speak abt #UnEmployment & #Economy. They (#BJP) are powerful that they will shutdown their channel(#TimesNow).That is why,from morning to evening, they talk about Hindu-Muslims (3/n)
Read 8 tweets
Let us briefly #Reflect on the #SARB's first #MPC #Meeting of 2020 and their #MonetaryPolicy decision to cut rates by 25bps from 6.5% to 6.25%...
Everyone with some interest in such matters is without a doubt already aware that the #SouthAfricanReserveBank's #MonetaryPolicyCommittee cut its key #PolicyRate, the #Repo by 25 basis points from 6.5% to 6.25%. The move can perhaps best be summarised by the following statement:
It is clear from the statement above that the SARB moved on the back of a growth story. They would want to see the level of #inflation creep closer to 4.5% but they didnt tighten to achieve this end. Rather, they provided more accommodation for growth & inflation might pick up...
Read 11 tweets
I know it's difficult to grasp of what's about to hit with the #StockMarket constantly reaching all time highs, but so it did, e.g., in 1929.

Here are some of our latest works to explain, why 2020 is the year when we fall into the next crisis.
Thread 1/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/12/…
In August, we detailed, why central banks have become a threat to the #economy .

"The exceptional measures of central banks were crucial in the acute phase of the crisis, but [...], they turned into a serious and dangerous drag on the global economy."
2/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/08/…
In September, we explained why the turn to massive monetary easing is unlikely to reinvigorate the real #economy.

"the [...] economic downturn did not start as a result of trade issues, but rather from the diminution of massive Chinese debt-stimulus." 3/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/09/…
Read 12 tweets
My current #Working #Research #Topic: "A Review of the #CommonMonetaryArea of #SouthernAfrica: Are Client Countries Better-off De-Linking from the #Anchor #Economy?". I'm using #OptimumCurrencyArea #OCA #Theory to analyse the #CMA arrangement. Draft will be ready January end..!
The #CommonMonetaryArea of #SouthernAfrica or #CMA could seem to some (mostly the technically inclined) to be a no-brainer & a clear natural #OptimumCurrencyArea given the historical links between the #anchor #SouthAfrica & the #clients (#Lesotho #Eswatini & #Namibia)...
Be that as it may, 2020 marks 46 years since the #RandMonetaryArea - #RMA agreement and 34 years since the RMA was revised to establish the #CommonMonetaryArea - #CMA between #SouthAfrica, #Lesotho, Swaziland (now, #Eswatini) and #Namibia...
Read 10 tweets
I promised that we'd publish a new #Repo -blog today, with some "breaking info". Unfortunately, we discovered an error in the background info, which trashed the basis of our argument.

What we were trying to explain was this. 👇

Thread 1/
@Amdalleq @BradHuston
After the #Fed started its #repo -operations, #StockMarket has been in state of relentless melt-up.

As suggested by @zerohedge , hedge funds have been likely to use repo to increase their leverage.

But, what have the new repo-ops caused? 2/
zerohedge.com/markets/fed-wa…
Like nicely elaborated by @bondstrategist , they have at least "thrown the moral hazard out of the window".

The #Fed is guaranteeing liquidity in the #repo -market, which basically removes all the risk, at least, in the markets of short-term paper. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Ed Mlliband costliest mistake passed in #Parliament in 2008 'Climate Change Act' est. as high as £734 bn or £18 bn each yr until 2050. Estimates in 2015 by EU & Intnl' Energy Agency suggest target cost at £1.3 trillion equiv. to UK entire national debt or £50k every household
/1
2007 Al Gore hysteria over global warming was at its height, Bryony Worthington Campaign Dir of Friends of the Earth joined the then Environ Sec David Miliband dept, drafted Bill to make Britain only country in #world committed by law to slashing its carbon emissions by 60%
/2
2008 Gordon Brown promoted David Miliband to Foreign Sec. & created new ministry Dept of Energy & Climate Change DECC, headed by his brother, Ed who decided, following green lobby groups pressure, to up emissions reduction target from 60% to mind-boggling 80%
/3
Read 6 tweets
It's rather baffling, why so many think that #recession of 2020 could be avoided.

Yes, the #Fed has cut rates aggressively and started to support the #stockmarkets and hedge-fund leverage, but it will not save the real #economy. 👇

#recession thread. 1/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/12/…
We first warned of the impending #recession in March 2019. Then, before the aggressive rate cuts and Not-QE, the timeline for its onset was Q1 2020.

In our recent forecast, the onset has been postponed between Q2 and Q3 due to the aggressive stimulus. 2/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/03/…
Why so little has changed in our forecast?

First, it should be noted that the #repo -panic of the #Fed was justified. It's evident that there are serious problems in the financial plumbing.

Without Fed's swift response, we'd be in recession already. 3/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/12/…
Read 19 tweets
There are still stubborn misconceptions on the role of #China in the global #economy , especially what comes to 2019.

It should be acknowledged that China leveraging/deleveraging has been the single most important driver of the global business cycle. 👇

Thread. 1/
#economy
#China leveraging/deleveraging drives the #Eurozone and global economies with a lag of 3-4 mo.

In Q1 2019 China broke all previous records in the growth of debt, and the same occurred in Q3 (and likely also in Q4).

Thus, 2019 marked the end of the "China deleveraging". 👇
2/
It's noteworthy that, when Beijing tried to deleverage in Q2 and in October, the economy tanked. This was quickly countered with another round of record-breaking stimulus.

Yet, economic growth has been sub-par all through the 2019 regardless of the massive stimulus. 3/
Read 10 tweets
THREAD
1/11 PEASANTS‼️😊
I saw a #Poll, & the Question was “if HRC, BHO, SOROS, Comey et al don’t go to prison...will you still vote for @realDonaldTrump?”
My answer is YES, but I did see someone comment he’s leaning hard “No”. #MAGA ?
If that’s you then listen...#Think
2/11 ..if @realDonaldTrump
Had the power to lock them up we’d no longer live in a #ConstitutionalRepublic,We’d live in @SpeakerPelosi’s vision...A NANA REPUBLIC!🍌
Hate to burst your bubble but I have to state Phacts, and as hard as it is I live in reality.
#MAGA #WWG1GWA
3/11 The law & the constitution states @realDonaldTrump is the head of the #Executive Branch.
While he’s in charge of a lot of different things I’m going to skip ahead to the law part.
He is “required“ to enforce and obey all federal laws.
Can he have someone Arrested? YES
Read 12 tweets
Take a Twitter detox over the festive break?

If you're just logging back in, fear not; we've rounded-up some of the best @telebusiness reads from the past week below…
#thread
We first wrote about there being yet more pain for retailers, with the number of people visiting shops on Christmas Eve falling by 9.4% compared to the same day last year…

Read @cajuk's story on how (and why) shoppers stayed away here: telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/…
#retail
.@Tim_Wallace then delivered some in-depth analysis about how Britain's economic growth is set to reach a solid rate at the end of 2020 and potentially a faster pace beyond (assuming #Brexit is done on time)…

Read it here: telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/…
Read 12 tweets
1. #Bulgaria/n #economy 101! #Thread

#Borissov's government is proud that in 2018, #GDP growth was 3.2%, but how impressive is this and should you be impressed too?
2. #Bulgaria has the lowest #GDP/capita in the #EU, but it is not that small. Our population is ca 7.1 million. What does that mean? Lack of efficiency, but not only.

Graph credit: WorldBank
3. #Bulgaria has the lowest median earnings in the #EU. In 2018, the net salary was 457 EUR. Contrast with #Romania (565 EUR), #Poland (784 EUR), and #Greece (917 EUR).

Chart credit: reinisfischer.com/average-salary…
Read 16 tweets
I've written on this few times before, but I just cannot help it.

It's truly strange how analysts and economists keep making predictions about "stable growth", while we've been in constant state of central bank induced bailouts for over two years.

Why the complacency? 1/
The first two bailouts are not generally acknowledged, but they were important.

In November 2017, the BoJ and PBoC stopped the rout in the junk bond ETF:s that threatened to spread to the asset markets.

This went mostly unnoticed, like the following bailout. 2/
@GeoffCutmore
In March 2018, the #ECB was forced to bailout European corporate debt markets that became clogged due to over-issuance, as corporations were preparing for the end of QE and rise in interest rates.

The BoJ also participated by increasing its stock ETF purchases. 3/
@oliviabvoz
Read 10 tweets
My father used To narrate the story of his colleague. Every month he used To buy Indira Vikas Patra for Rs. 500. In those days, rate of interest was 12%. Every 6 yrs amount invested would double.
His colleagues used To laugh "500 se kya hoga" 1/n
He did this religiously for 6 years. Then in next 6 years, every month he used To get Rs. 1000 maturity of what he invested in last 6 years. As he was getting salary, he didn't need this money for monthly expenses. So he renewed his IVPs. 2/n
In next 6 years, he got Rs 2000 pm from IVPs maturing which he again reinvested for 6 years.

This, when he retired, he got a decent pension from IVPs.. Bearer certificates... so one can take cash and not pay tax. And this was in addition To pension from RBI
Read 8 tweets
A detailed #thread on the important #schemes launched by Sri #NarendraModi led #BJP Govt.

Sri @narendramodi ji has launched many #welfare schemes. These #schemes varies from welfare of #Farmers, #housewives, #labourers, #students to small #shopkeepers etc.
@PMOIndia @BJP4India
1. PM-KISAN: This scheme promises to pay all poor #farmers (small and marginal farmers having lands up to 2 hectares) Rs 6,000 each every year in 3 installments through Direct #Bank Transfer. It would reportedly benefit around 14.5 crore farmers all over #India.
2. Pradhan Mantri #Kisan Pension Yojana: To address the problems of farm sector distress, the Modi 2.0 Cabinet has approved a proposal to provide small and marginal #farmers with a minimum Rs 3,000 per #month fixed #pension, costing Rs 10,774.5 crore per annum to the exchequer.
Read 33 tweets

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