Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Economy

Most recents (24)

Anyone perusing the top articles of major media outlets last weekend would have read several pieces on the extraordinary #shortages being witnessed in the U.S. #economy today, and particularly those in the #labor market.
The tone of many articles was pessimistic, suggesting that the #supply-side #shortages and dislocations may be systemic, or long-term, but we think there’s evidence that the U.S. #economy will display considerably greater dynamism and resilience than the pessimists believe.
First, it’s vital to recognize that this is a #supply constraint problem, not one of #demand. Indeed, strong demand is being driven by a host of powerful influences: 1) household balance sheets never been cleaner and HH #wealth is $25 trillion greater now than pre-Covid level.
Read 12 tweets
🌎

1. Suppose an alien spaceship will land on earth next week.

After many light-years of travel through space, some friendly little green creatures decide to get out and stretch their legs on our planet.

What would they report home?

🧵Thread Image
🌎

2. I guess their first description would be ecstatic.

Hidden in the fast, cold, and dark universe, they discovered a blue planet that brims with an incredible diversity of life, aided by ideal living conditions.

🧵 Thread continues

#nature #life
theplanet.substack.com/p/humans-only-…
🌎

3. But:

Since the dawn of civilization, humanity has lost 83% of all wild mammals and half of all plants.

Of all the mammals on earth, 96% are livestock and humans, while only 4% are wild mammals.

🧵 Thread

#wildlife #biodiversity #climatecrisis
theplanet.substack.com/p/humans-only-…
Read 11 tweets
With respect to today’s #inflation data, core #CPI (excluding volatile food and energy components) came in at 0.24% month-over-month and 4.04% year-over-year and was driven higher by strong increases in the #rent components, which have a tendency to be persistent.
Further, headline #CPI data printed at a solid 0.41% month-over-month and came in at 5.38% year-over-year.
Today’s data witnessed declines in used vehicles, #airfares and lodging, which should temper #market concerns somewhat, but we anticipate that these components are likely to see #prices bounce back in the months to come.
Read 10 tweets
#China Jan -Sept. imports rise 22.6% y/y and Jan.-Sept. exports +22.7% y/y in yuan terms.
#trade #import #export #economy 🇨🇳
China's General Customs' Jan-Sept Import Data: (YoY)
#crude oil imports fall 6.8% y/y to 387 mln tonnes;
#natgas imports rise 22. 2% y/y to 89.85 mln tonnes;
#ironore imports fall 3% y/y to 842 mln tonnes;
#copper imports 4.02 mln tonnes, down 19.5% y/y.
#OOTT #trade #import🇨🇳 🇺🇸
In the first three quarters of this year, #China's #exports reached 15.55 trillion yuan, up 22.7% y/y and #imports reached 12.78 trillion yuan, up 22.6% y/y.

Foreign trade imports and exports have achieved positive year-on-year growth for five consecutive quarters.
#commodities
Read 4 tweets
September witnessed a somewhat disappointing nonfarm #payroll gain of 194,000 jobs, which was weaker than the upwardly revised August gain of 365,000 and was well below #economists’ consensus estimates of nearly 490,000 jobs.
Clearly, there are significant #labor supply issues limiting the pace of recovery. Further, the #unemployment rate declined meaningfully, from 5.2% to 4.8% in Sept, and average hourly #earnings saw gains of 0.62% m-o-m, which brings the measure to 4.58% greater on a y-o-y basis.
The most interesting part of today’s #JobsReport, and much of the other recent #economic/corporate data, is that it’s the supply of resources that’s creating systemic pricing pressure, as well as consequently dulling growth of an #economy not lacking demand in virtually any area.
Read 11 tweets
My thoughts on why the US Dollar will soon loose its status as a reserve currency and just a couple of the huge consequences
#usd #usdollar #economy #trade #china #currency #gold #inflation #HardLessons #LivingWage
I delved into global macro economics in the late 1990's and invested in the 2000-2010 commodity boom in large part based on my belief in China's and India's economy booming and their demand growth taking off. The resource bear market looked to be ending & US tech was overvalued
Today's global marco picture seems very similar but with some distinct differences. The Nasdaq QQQ seems even more grossly overvalued to me than it was in 2000 along with SPX. Interest rates have been cut to nothing already and quantitative easing is now a well established tool
Read 31 tweets
1. A recap on #China electricity shortage, National Development and Reform Commission (#NDRC) that’s at the center of news, and what’s next.
2. Like any sudden shortage, it’s demand, supply, low slack and sudden shock. Due to low price of Coal in 2020 right after Covid, and government's push to reduce overcapacity and carbon emissions, coal inventory was low. China electricity is 70%+ coal power.
3. This September 3rd Moody’s report on coal sector was a 2 weeks early to be noticed. They mention 10 largest producers – all SOEs – accounted for nearly 53% of China's coal production in 2020, while three regions represented 70% of total production
moodys.com/research/Moody…
Read 19 tweets
Boris Johnson & Michael Gove promised lower fuel bills once Britain left the EU

EU gas prices are high too, but they trade efficiently in linked auctions that balance prices across the EU

We don't because #Brexit 🤦‍♂️

#BrexitReality #ProjectFear #BrexitChaos #ToryBrexitDisaster UK Energy Crisis
So now the UK has the highest energy prices in Europe. We produce most of our electricity from gas.

It's important we make no mistake. This is a problem created by the #ToryBrexitDisaster

They are disaster capitalists who bankrupt industries and buy them up cheap in a monopoly.
Everything that is happening now was predicted in the leaked 2018 Operation Yellowhammer report, saying that a No / Bad #Brexit Deal (which we have) could lead to

Food & Petrol Shortages✅
Significant Electricity Price Increases✅

For now its wholesale (retail prices are fixed)
Read 10 tweets
-U know which countries would be richest & rule world
-1s who have plan for #climatechange
-Freak #weather & #floods will destroy weak links
-#India needs to move away from agriculture-dependent #economy
-Need to decongest densely populated coastal regions
chanakyaforum.com/the-promise-of…
-Coal has long been #India & #China’s top energy source & its production has increased consistently
-India’s per capita CO2 emissions rose from 15 to 40% of world emissions betn 1990-2019
-Good news is since 2015, India’s solar & wind power elect production increased fm 3 to 10% CEICData
-#USA’s International Development Finance Corporation has invested $300 mil in 4 solar energy projects in #India
-Quad meeting in US where #PMModi would come face to face with Pres #Biden has a lot on the plate to discuss
-#Climate would be 1 of those important topics
Read 4 tweets
In August we saw #inflation growth moderate further, for the second consecutive month, at least relative to the impressive rate of growth in #prices witnessed around mid-year.
Core #CPI (excluding volatile food and energy components) came in at 0.10% month-over-month and 3.98% year-over-year, which was considerably less than the consensus forecast and was driven higher by #shelter components.
Meanwhile, headline #CPI data printed at a solid 0.27% month-over-month and came in at 5.20% year-over-year.
Read 11 tweets
A thread on #ClimateCrisis:
#amwriting
Melting Boundaries
Nature Knows No Nation and No Nation Knows Nature
+
In the global fora, the issue of #climate change has been a game of ‘passing the parcel’ where the parcel is global in all proportions – global threat, global impact, global mitigation.
+
#Climate is the varying weather conditions experienced annually aggregated over a long period of time. Unfortunately, politically, climate change has had much less traction than the climate itself in the last 30 years. Efforts have been debated, litigated and even acted upon.
Read 35 tweets
To add Delhi under @AamAadmiParty is:
▪️3rd highest in per capita income
▪️Lowest in fiscal debt
▪️ONLY state running in profit
▪️ONLY state with no corruption convictions
▪️Giving Janta its rights & good govt services frm Janta's own money✌🏻13/n
#DelhiModel #KejriwalKiGuarantee
#Delhi State lowest in fiscal debt at the end of FY 2020-21. Source: RBI. 14/n
#DelhiModel #Economy #KejriwalKiGuarantee #Freebies Image
Read 3 tweets
In my newest newsletter, I deal with the danger that the slowdown of #China poses to the world #economy .

Here are some data and thoughts from the post. Thread. 1/6
mtmalinen.substack.com/p/china-slowdo…
The main problem of the Chinese #economy is its debt-dependence. It simply cannot grow without a constant resuscitation.

Chinese economy has actually been in an unsustainable path since 2008/2009. 👇2/
If we deduct the growth of (government and private) debt from the growth of GDP, the growth-trajectory of the Chinese economy looks very different. 3/
Read 6 tweets
On this week's episode, @YieldGuild co-founder @gabusch talks about #web3 gaming, #Play ToEarn, #NFTs, and more with @AliaksandrH.
Visit nextcreators.simplecast.com to listen and subscribe:

🗣️They talked about what prompted @Axielnfinity and @YieldGuild to move vertical in 2021.
🗣️What makes #PlayToEarn games stand out?

🗣️ How @Axielnfinity has a player #retention rate of 90% after 30 days, which is unheard of. Considering how to go to ten #million people

🗣️#Scholars of the #Guild Yield.
Also highlighted
@4NTSGuild @oddgems @NEAR_daily
Read 4 tweets
It was 73 degrees and sunny in #JacksonHole, Wyoming, today; a perfect day for all those who were there….
Yet, there were no #monetary policy officials present at the traditional location of the @KansasCityFed’s late-summer #economic policy symposium, since they were conducting a “virtual symposium.”
That symposium provided #ChairPowell the opportunity to lay out a reasonably sunny perspective on the U.S. #economy, but also one that was not out of the woods yet, in terms of Covid variant risk and a maximum #employment target still to be achieved.
Read 10 tweets
@narendramodi govt to raise 6 lakh Cr by monetising assets

Funds to be used to build new infrastructure,spur economic growth

Govt will raise 88000Cr this year by leasing infra assets of central govt ministries&state-run companies via #NationalMonetizationPipeline,NMP
Details👇
Annual targets under 4 year NMP have been set at 👇

1.62 lakh Cr for FY23

1.79 lakh Cr for FY24

1.67 lakh Cr in FY25

Top 5 sectors by value under this #AssetMonetization programme are

Roads (27%),
Railways (25%),
Power (15%),
Oil and Gas pipelines (8%)
Telecom (6%)

#Economy
Among projects @narendramodi govt plans to lease are👇

26700km of roads
90 passenger trains
400 railway stations
28608 circuit km transmission lines 286000km of #Bharatnet fibre network&

14917 towers owned by Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd,#BSNL& Mahanagar Telecom Nigam Ltd,#MTNL
Read 8 tweets
Our #inflation forecasts from March on plus the ultimate scare: the possibility of a hyperinflation.

The "shock" was plainly visible in prices of online products and, e.g., shipping 👇. When economies opened, it materialized. 1/4
@GnSEconomics #economy gnseconomics.com/2021/04/01/q-r…
By June, it was clearly visible that the source of #inflation had moved from "want to have products" to, e.g., food, rents and fertilizers, that is, to "need to have products", which would be reflected on wages

Alas, inflation was here to stay. 2/
gnseconomics.com/2021/07/15/inf…
But, what truly worries us, is the possibility of a very rapid #inflation , or hyperinflation. It's pre-requisites are:

1) Vast issuance of central bank credit, like QE, and
2) Diminution of production possibilities. 3/

Both are here now. 🥶
gnseconomics.com/2021/02/24/is-…
Read 4 tweets
Thread: Tamil Nadu Finance Minister @ptrmadurai presents DMK govt's first paperless budget (revised) for 2021-22 in the legislative assembly.

#TamilNadu #Economy #Budget #Finances
Budget highlights:

All 4,57,645 petitions received under "Ungal Thokuthiyil Muthalamaichar" programme have
been acted upon. After due field verification, 2,29,216
grievances positively redressed.

Use of Tamil as the official language will be strengthened in
all depts.
Rs 5 crore will be allocated to carry out
archaeological excavations, which is the highest among all States in the country.

Govt will revamp the implementation of Old Age
Pensions scheme.

Measures will be taken to fill up remaining 14,317 vacancies in the police force.
Read 15 tweets
Officially, the German federal government wants to save nothing less than the world #climate. In order to achieve this megalomaniac goal, it does not shy away from any expenditure that costs our economy around 50 billion euros annually in the form of high taxes and subsidies. /1
This moralizing #climate activism makes every German citizen poorer by at least 600 euros per year. /2
But among the heads and chief ideologues of large lobby organizations, there is the naive hope that this massive transformation will finally make #Germany the world champion exporter again - through the export of #climate technology. /3
Read 11 tweets
#Leadership in a Growth-constrained, Information-Age #Economy
Reflecting on conversations 2018 Conclave where business & academic leaders had shared their insights on the constraints that global & the #Indian economy faces & possible solutions.
ideassansideology.org/engagements/le…
2. Demand was identified as the constraint on growth and wage/earnings growth was considered to be the solution. Pandemic has made it worse. But solution is still in growth in earnings - now more than ever.
3. At the end of the day, government is not spending, industry is not spending, and the individuals are not able to spend, and therefore growth is constrained.
Read 11 tweets
Inflation data for July moderated somewhat, at least relative to the heady pace of recent months, which should temper #market and policymaker concerns a bit, despite the fact that #inflation will stay sticky-higher for a while and the #risk remains to the high-side.
Core #CPI (excluding volatile food and #energy components) came in at 0.3% month-over-month and 4.3% year-over-year, a bit less than the consensus forecast, and headline CPI data printed at a solid 0.5% month-over-month and came in at 5.4% year-over-year.
While we think that it’s hard to see a case for the recent levels of elevated #inflation turning into “1970s style” runaway price increases, higher #wages and elevated growth for an extended period will allow companies to achieve higher levels of #PricingPower for a time.
Read 7 tweets
1/ My top three takeaways from Howard Marks' latest memo "Thinking About Macro".

Thread below🧵👇

#howardmarks #valueinvesting #macro Image
2/ Most economic forecasters have lousy track records, so why trust them?

Time and attention is best spent elsewhere.

#economy #Economist Image
3/ Prices are mostly physiological elements reflected in reality.

Perceived increased demand can drive prices up, and vice versa.

Perception is not always reality.

#stockmarket Image
Read 5 tweets
8.9% YoY #CoreSector growth in June 2021,rise in Exports by 48.34% in June,with #ServicesExports rising from $17bn in 2001 to $205 bn in 2021,under @narendramodi govt,V shaped recovery,is gaining traction

India's IT sector recruited 69132 people in 1QFY22

My thread on #Economy
Almost every month,over 2.5 billion transactions are done in India,via #UPI,worth Rs 5 lakh Cr+

#eRUPI,developed by NPCI under aegis of @narendramodi govt,will now add to #DigitalTransformation

#DigitalEconomy set to be a Trillion Dollar one,by 2025-26,thx to cashless payments Image
#GST Revenue at 1.16 lakh Cr in July'21 bodes well

Since Oct 2020,#GSTRevenue has been over Rs 1 lakh Cr every single month,barring June,when it dipped to 92849Cr

Biggest drop in contribution is from #Maharashtra,due to continued uptrend in #Covid,thx to inept @CMOMaharashtra👎
Read 6 tweets

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