Thread by @SethAbramson

There’s no way to understand this statement by the Vice Chair of the House January 6 Committee other than that it means the HJ6C *may* refer the likely 2024 GOP presidential candidate for federal criminal charges by DOJ.

That’s huge—even history-altering. cnn.com/videos/politic…

(PS) And it’s impossible to miss that this statement is being made by one of the Republicans who’d almost certainly run for the GOP nomination if Trump’s world—and therefore the GOP party and base as we know it—collapses before 2024.

Liz Cheney’s no dope—she’s just like her dad.

(PS2) As Donald Trump presidential biographer, I first wrote years ago that the Republican Party as we know it may cease to exist by 2030 or even 2025 due to Trump’s actions. If Trump were to be indicted, it could lead to a chain of events that splinters the GOP into two parties.

(PS3) We can’t know what Garland and DOJ would do with an HJ6C criminal referral on Trump—largely because we don’t know what evidence DOJ has gathered independently of Congress. But the pressure to move on Trump after a highly public congressional criminal referral would be high.

(PS4) While I’m a Trump biographer, not a Cheney family biographer, I don’t think any of us would consider it a stretch to say that when Trump ascended in the GOP and eventually began an effort to push the current Cheney scion out of it, the Cheneys’ approach to politics changed.

(PS5) That is to say, the question for Liz Cheney *now* is *not* whether she will be a leader in the Republican Party as it presently exists—that’s impossible; politically, she’s the walking dead—but whether she will lead one of the nation’s three parties after the GOP splinters.

(PS6) So when it is *Liz Cheney in particular* who goes on national television to use legal language to imply that the HJ6C *may* issue a criminal referral on Donald Trump, we’d better pay close attention—because when I say that would be a history-altering development, I mean it.

(PS7) This also confirms something I think many of us have known for a long time: over the next 24 months, Merrick Garland may have as much say in the future of the United States as President Biden.

It is impossible to overstate how *significant* a historical figure he could be.

(PS8) Candidly, I’d say the same about Cheney. I think legal/political analysts may have to adjust their thinking over the next 24 months to consider that others besides Joe Biden may actually become as influential—literally *as influential*—in U.S. politics. That’s a sea change.

(PS9) Consider: while Liz Cheney is just one member of Congress out of hundreds, if America’s two-party political system collapses in the next five years, it’ll almost certainly be because of decisions she makes. Just so, Garland holds the terms of the 2024 election in his hands.

(PS10) We know that in a call with RNC chair Ronna McDaniel late in his presidency, Trump threatened to leave the GOP. If he’s indicted, he’ll try to take the GOP over a cliff with him to new forms of insurrection. Cheney—and a few others—will reside at the fulcrum at that point.

(PS11) Based on the statement Cheney made yesterday, Biden must stay as far from Garland as he possibly can—and I mean long-term. If a referral is made on Trump, Trump will immediately claim that Biden is behind a plot to rig the 2024 election by incarcerating his opponent in it.

(PS12) So as the author of the most comprehensive insurrection coverage housed in a single media publication, do I believe the HJ6C and Congress will eventually send DOJ a criminal referral on Trump?

Yes.

Because the evidence PROOF and other outlets have compiled *requires* it.

(PS13) This means scenarios that right now sound like dire and desperate hypotheticals are *likely*—which is not the same thing as saying “certain”—to come to pass. Which means everyone in the political and legal and journalistic spheres should begin preparing for the future now.

(PS14) It is not clear that the GOP as we know it can survive a Trump indictment. It is not clear that rule of law as we know it could survive a refusal by DOJ to indict him. It is not clear how the 2024 election avoids descending into chaos if Trump needs to run to avoid prison.

(PS15) Will the GOP shut down the HJ6C if it takes Congress in early January 2023? Yes. Which is why we can be certain that Trump’s political and legal futures will reach a crisis point in the next year. There’s *no chance* the HJ6C doesn’t release a report before it’s disbanded.