The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has published its latest Mortality Monitor to 3 December (week 48).

There were 3% more deaths this week than if death rates were the same as week 48 of 2019. That is 383 excess deaths in England and Wales this week. Image
CMI calculates 116,900 excess deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic, of which 44,000 occurred in 2021.

Cumulative mortality YTD is 6.3% of a full year's mortality above 2019, though for now it remains lower than 2012, 2013, 2015 and of course 2020. Image
This analysis of death rates shows significantly fewer excess deaths than COVID deaths this week, as was also the case last week. This follows a long period where the calculated excess was consistently similar to the number of COVID deaths each week. Image
There’s an interesting pattern by age. Excess mortality relative to expected death rates has generally been higher at ages below 75 since mid-year. That gap widened further recently with very low, or even negative excess deaths at the oldest ages. Image
It is of course highly unusual to see sustained runs of excess deaths. The run of 22 weeks to day is the longest the CMI has seen through the pandemic.

Full report publicly available here: actuaries.org.uk/system/files/f… Image

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More from @COVID19actuary

15 Dec
Latest data on COVID-19 hospital admissions, occupancy and deaths in England has been released.

Starting with the regional picture this week as there has been a rapid acceleration in London with admissions up by 38% week-on-week. Increases are much more gradual elsewhere. 1/5 Image
For England as a whole, COVID-19 hospital admissions are up by 10% this week, largely driven by the big increase in London. Image
SAGE released new modelling provided by SPI-M-O teams in October. Actual hospital admissions are currently higher than the modelled scenarios, which did not capture the increase in admissions in October. Admissions are no longer following the downward trajectory modelled. 3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets
8 Dec
What is known and what is still to be determined in respect of Omicron? How should we think about next steps when faced with uncertainty?

In our new blog @AdeleGroyer and Stephen Kramer summarise the current state of knowledge and consider how to respond.
covidactuaries.org/2021/12/08/omi…
The effective reproduction number, R, has risen significantly in South Africa since early November, but as @trvrb shows, this may be due to a higher R0, greater immune escape, or a mixture of the two.

Initial findings suggest that Omicron *may* have less severe impacts than were seen for other variants. @MRCza states that it will take another two weeks before one can draw more precise conclusions about disease severity.
Read 7 tweets
8 Dec
Latest data on COVID-19 hospital admissions, bed occupancy and hospital deaths in England has been released.

Admissions have been rising. Nationally, the moving average is up by 6% week-on-week. There are large increases in some of the regions, discussed below. 1/5
One by one the regions have been going back into growth in admissions. The South East (up 17%) and London (up 14%) have seen the biggest increases. Admissions are up 11% in the East and 4% in the Midlands. Only NE & Yorks saw a fall this week, with no change in SW or NW. 2/5
SAGE released new modelling provided by SPI-M-O teams in October. Actual hospital admissions are currently higher than the modelled scenarios, which did not capture the increase in admissions in October, but were following the downward trajectory until this week. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
20 Oct
Latest data on COVID-19 hospital admissions, bed occupancy and hospital deaths in England has been released.

Nationally, admissions have risen sharply, up 23% this week. We look set to exceed the July peak in the next few days.

The regional picture is discussed below. 1/6
All regions have seen significant increases in COVID hospital admissions this week. The smallest increases were in the South West (up 11%) and the Midlands (up 14%). The biggest jumps are in the South East (up 44%) and London (up 36%). 2/6
Of concern, admissions have been accelerating, that is, the rate of increase has itself been increasing. Our estimate of R, based on hospital admissions, has risen above 1.1 and does not yet appear to have peaked. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
11 Oct
In our latest update, @lrossouw examines the implications of the pandemic for the life insurance industry in South Africa.

South Africa has seen one of the highest burdens of excess deaths globally during the COVID-19 pandemic.

covid-arg.com/post/life-insu…
In each wave to date, the increase in death rates appears to have bee relatively higher among South Africa's insured population when compared to the general population.
South Africa's insurance industry body ASISA has stated that despite increased claims the industry remains well capitalised (i.e. able to pay all claims arising). It also noted increased sales of policies and a reduction in customers letting their cover lapse.
Read 5 tweets
31 Jul
There’s no Friday Report this week (we publish these fortnightly) but here’s a thread with a summary of some of our other recent output for your weekend reading.
We started the week with @lrossouw’s bulletin showing that vaccines could save many more lives in the developing world, where supply remains limited, rather than being used as boosters in already highly-vaccinated populations.

covid-arg.com/post/to-boost-…
Tuesday’s CMI Mortality Monitor showed a second consecutive week with death rates higher than the benchmark. That follows several weeks of significantly lower death rates, and is not fully explained by the rise in COVID fatalities.
Read 13 tweets

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