Latest data on COVID-19 hospital admissions, bed occupancy and hospital deaths in England has been released.

Nationally, admissions have risen sharply, up 23% this week. We look set to exceed the July peak in the next few days.

The regional picture is discussed below. 1/6
All regions have seen significant increases in COVID hospital admissions this week. The smallest increases were in the South West (up 11%) and the Midlands (up 14%). The biggest jumps are in the South East (up 44%) and London (up 36%). 2/6
Of concern, admissions have been accelerating, that is, the rate of increase has itself been increasing. Our estimate of R, based on hospital admissions, has risen above 1.1 and does not yet appear to have peaked. 3/6
Admissions stayed below central scenarios modelled ahead of “Freedom Day” but now appear to be rising to another peak, as modelled by @cmmid_lshtm. Since the summer peak was smaller than modelled, will this one be larger? 4/6
COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy in England in now rising, following admissions, and is now back over 6,000 beds. Mechanical Ventilation bed occupancy is up by 14%, while other bed occupancy is up by 21%. 5/6
The number of COVID-19 deaths in English hospitals is also now rising. The average has increased by 17% over the past week.

Purple estimates are based on the pattern of reporting delays in the last two months. 6/6

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More from @COVID19actuary

11 Oct
In our latest update, @lrossouw examines the implications of the pandemic for the life insurance industry in South Africa.

South Africa has seen one of the highest burdens of excess deaths globally during the COVID-19 pandemic.

covid-arg.com/post/life-insu…
In each wave to date, the increase in death rates appears to have bee relatively higher among South Africa's insured population when compared to the general population.
South Africa's insurance industry body ASISA has stated that despite increased claims the industry remains well capitalised (i.e. able to pay all claims arising). It also noted increased sales of policies and a reduction in customers letting their cover lapse.
Read 5 tweets
31 Jul
There’s no Friday Report this week (we publish these fortnightly) but here’s a thread with a summary of some of our other recent output for your weekend reading.
We started the week with @lrossouw’s bulletin showing that vaccines could save many more lives in the developing world, where supply remains limited, rather than being used as boosters in already highly-vaccinated populations.

covid-arg.com/post/to-boost-…
Tuesday’s CMI Mortality Monitor showed a second consecutive week with death rates higher than the benchmark. That follows several weeks of significantly lower death rates, and is not fully explained by the rise in COVID fatalities.
Read 13 tweets
30 Jul
Update on COVID hospital admissions and deaths in England.

The 7-day average for admissions has clearly peaked and fell slightly today, though it’s still up 12% over the week.

No log scales or R calculations necessary now to see the change in trend! 1/6 Image
Growth in admissions has slowed further across all regions. Generalising slightly, the regions with higher current admissions numbers look like they are past the peak, while those with fewer admissions still appear to be approaching it. 2/6 Image
In our latest blog @AdeleGroyer updates our analysis of the vaccination status of hospital admissions in England. Although the majority of admissions over age 50 are vaccinated, this is to be expected given very high vaccine uptake in the population. 3/6
covid-arg.com/post/how-many-…
Read 6 tweets
30 Jul
On 19 July, England moved to Step 4 of the #roadmap - lifting most of the legal restrictions around #socialdistancing.

Using @Google Mobility data, @AdeleGroyer analyses how the public responded in our latest blog.

covid-arg.com/post/freedom-d…
There was a small uptick in presence at "Retail & Recreation" facilities such as restaurants, shopping centres, theme parks, museums and cinemas.

At the weekend, people took advantage of the warm, sunny weather and spent time outdoors in "Parks" which includes places like public parks and beaches. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
21 Jul
Update on COVID hospital admissions and deaths in England.

752 admissions reported today. The 7-day average is up by 34% in the last week. Implied doubling time is 16 days.

There’s been a continued fall in the rate of increase but this is still rapid growth in admissions. 1/6
To see the slight fall in the rate of increase more clearly, here is an “R-like” estimate based on hospital admissions. With a reducing proportion of infections turning into admissions, it probably understates R slightly.

Our “admissions-R” has fallen below 1.3. 2/6
All English regions are showing strong increases in hospital admissions over the past week except the North West where numbers have been flatter. Growth is fastest in the South West, up 67% while other regions are up by 40-50%. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
19 Jul
In our new blog, @AdeleGroyer compares the vaccination status of hospital admissions in England to the general population.

For those aged 50plus, the unvaccinated 5% make up 34% of hospital admissions. 79% of people are fully vaccinated but make up just 43% of admissions.
At younger ages the vaccination relationship is similar.

For those aged below 50, only 46% are unvaccinated but they make up 87% of hospital admissions. 21% of people are fully vaccinated but make up just 4% of admissions.

covid-arg.com/post/how-many-…
Our new blog examines both the vaccine status of admissions and also the implied hospitalisation rate for different groups, showing how this varies by age and vaccination status.

This provides a clear demonstration of the effectiveness of vaccines.
covid-arg.com/post/how-many-…
Read 6 tweets

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