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31 Jul, 13 tweets, 8 min read
There’s no Friday Report this week (we publish these fortnightly) but here’s a thread with a summary of some of our other recent output for your weekend reading.
We started the week with @lrossouw’s bulletin showing that vaccines could save many more lives in the developing world, where supply remains limited, rather than being used as boosters in already highly-vaccinated populations.

covid-arg.com/post/to-boost-…
Tuesday’s CMI Mortality Monitor showed a second consecutive week with death rates higher than the benchmark. That follows several weeks of significantly lower death rates, and is not fully explained by the rise in COVID fatalities.
Next @AdeleGroyer revisited her analysis of the vaccine status of people hospitalised with COVID, using updated @PHE_uk data.

This again showed the unvaccinated are 10-12 more likely to be hospitalised (even most admissions now are fully vaccinated).

covid-arg.com/post/how-many-… ImageImage
On Thursday, an update showing that COVID hospital admissions in Scotland have fallen sharply. A glance into the near future for England? See below for the latest picture.
On the subject of COVID-admissions, here @john_actuary discusses new data showing that less than 1-in-4 admissions with COVID have something else as the primary condition (and for some of those the primary condition was probably triggered by the COVID infection).
In yesterday’s succinct blog @AdeleGroyer used @Google mobility data to examine public behaviour after “Freedom Day” on 19 July, finding no evidence of an increase in indoor socialising in the week that followed.

covid-arg.com/post/freedom-d…
On a lighter note, our team enjoyed this response from @PaulMainwood (who is excellent on the UK vaccine supply chain) to our tweets summarising @AdeleGroyer’s blog! It’s a fair cop.
Yesterday’s summary of English hospital data showed COVID admissions have peaked and occupancy has been flat for a few days. ICU occupancy and hospital deaths are both still rising but these are lagging indicators.
Yesterday we also had the latest @ONS infection data. While some have misinterpreted the data showing an increase in the proportion of the population testing positive, @john_actuary explains that this includes older infections so this data does not contradict the fall in cases.
Away from the UK, signals are much less positive in South Africa. A late night thread from @lrossouw shows that R there is rising back towards 1, with cases clearly rising in 3 of the 9 provinces there.
Lastly, another late night thread, this time from @john_actuary who dived straight in to the new @ICNARC report on ICU admissions and outcomes. ICNARC have resumed weekly reporting and are comparing admissions from 1 May to those admitted during the second wave.
And of course, last week’s Friday Report remains available and relevant if you missed it, or want to re-read.

Among other things it includes updates on vaccines, SAGE modelling, schools, antibodies and excess mortality.

Wishing you a relaxing weekend.

covid-arg.com/post/the-frida…

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More from @COVID19actuary

COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
30 Jul
Update on COVID hospital admissions and deaths in England.

The 7-day average for admissions has clearly peaked and fell slightly today, though it’s still up 12% over the week.

No log scales or R calculations necessary now to see the change in trend! 1/6 Image
Growth in admissions has slowed further across all regions. Generalising slightly, the regions with higher current admissions numbers look like they are past the peak, while those with fewer admissions still appear to be approaching it. 2/6 Image
In our latest blog @AdeleGroyer updates our analysis of the vaccination status of hospital admissions in England. Although the majority of admissions over age 50 are vaccinated, this is to be expected given very high vaccine uptake in the population. 3/6
covid-arg.com/post/how-many-…
Read 6 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
30 Jul
On 19 July, England moved to Step 4 of the #roadmap - lifting most of the legal restrictions around #socialdistancing.

Using @Google Mobility data, @AdeleGroyer analyses how the public responded in our latest blog.

covid-arg.com/post/freedom-d…
There was a small uptick in presence at "Retail & Recreation" facilities such as restaurants, shopping centres, theme parks, museums and cinemas.

At the weekend, people took advantage of the warm, sunny weather and spent time outdoors in "Parks" which includes places like public parks and beaches. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
21 Jul
Update on COVID hospital admissions and deaths in England.

752 admissions reported today. The 7-day average is up by 34% in the last week. Implied doubling time is 16 days.

There’s been a continued fall in the rate of increase but this is still rapid growth in admissions. 1/6
To see the slight fall in the rate of increase more clearly, here is an “R-like” estimate based on hospital admissions. With a reducing proportion of infections turning into admissions, it probably understates R slightly.

Our “admissions-R” has fallen below 1.3. 2/6
All English regions are showing strong increases in hospital admissions over the past week except the North West where numbers have been flatter. Growth is fastest in the South West, up 67% while other regions are up by 40-50%. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
19 Jul
In our new blog, @AdeleGroyer compares the vaccination status of hospital admissions in England to the general population.

For those aged 50plus, the unvaccinated 5% make up 34% of hospital admissions. 79% of people are fully vaccinated but make up just 43% of admissions.
At younger ages the vaccination relationship is similar.

For those aged below 50, only 46% are unvaccinated but they make up 87% of hospital admissions. 21% of people are fully vaccinated but make up just 4% of admissions.

covid-arg.com/post/how-many-…
Our new blog examines both the vaccine status of admissions and also the implied hospitalisation rate for different groups, showing how this varies by age and vaccination status.

This provides a clear demonstration of the effectiveness of vaccines.
covid-arg.com/post/how-many-…
Read 6 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
19 Jul
Update on COVID hospital admissions in England.

622 admissions reported today. The 7-day average is up by 37% in the last week. Implied doubling time is 16 days.

There’s been a slight fall in the rate of increase but this is still rapid growth in admissions. 1/6
To see the slight fall in the rate of increase more clearly, here is an “R-like” estimate based on hospital admissions. With a reducing proportion of infections turning into admissions, it probably understates R slightly.

Our “admissions-R” has fallen from over 1.4 to 1.3. 2/6
All English regions except the North West are showing strong increases in hospital admissions over the past week. Growth is fastest in the South West, where admissions doubled in a week. Admissions have been flat in the North West. Other regions are up by 40-50%. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
16 Jul
Update on COVID hospital admissions in England.

636 admissions reported today. The 7-day average is up by 42% in the last week. Implied doubling time is 14 days.

There’s been a slight fall in the rate of increase but this is still rapid growth in admissions. 1/5
To see the slight fall in the rate of increase more clearly, here is an “R-like” estimate based on hospital admissions. With a reducing proportion of infections turning into admissions, it probably understates R slightly.

The fall in the last few days is quite clear. 2/5
All English regions are showing strong increases in hospital admissions over the past week. Growth is fastest in London, the East and South West. Growth is now slowest in the North West. Admissions are highest in the North East, and still rising rapidly. 3/5
Read 5 tweets

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