What is the outlook for UK-EU relations in 2022? That has become a much more difficult question to answer of late, because it really hangs on one question - the fate of @BorisJohnson 1/
The outlook was clearer one month ago - the relationship would have hit a new low as UKG triggered Article 16 & EU partially terminated UK-EU trade deal. But then came along @OwenPaterson & new allegations of Tory sleaze - serving as a brake on hostilities with EU 2/
As one Tory MP told me at the time: “Article 16 has to be done from a position of strength but Boris is suddenly in a much weaker state. He could have done it at conference when he was riding high. The whole party would have rallied behind him. Now it would look desperate.” 3/
The thinking in @10DowningStreet also evolved, as senior officials clocked - contrary to their early assumptions - A16 would unite EU. So UKG instead began toying with another idea: of letting talks run long, neither suspending nor fully implementing Protocol - a sneakier play 4/
While senior Irish officials argued this wd also lead to termination of TCA & short-term tariffs, building EU27 consensus in these circumstances wd have been more difficult. But then domestic backdrop for Johnson got worse & calculations of UKG over Protocol changed again 5/
.@DavidGHFrost has now assumed a more positive approach in talks with @MarosSefcovic & both will talk today & again on Fri. As reported last week, UKG is now likely to drop its demand to remove ECJ; instead Frost is focusing on practical problems regarding movement of goods 6/
But while a deal could be reached on medicines soon, hopes of a final deal on the Protocol before Xmas are probably premature. Johnson will not want to give Tory Brexiteers the impression he is backing down - especially since many of them are lockdown sceptics too 7/
But combo of Partygate, yesterday's huge Covid rebellion & possible Tory defeat in tomorrow's by-election by LibDems in Shropshire North is raising a more fundamental question in Westminster (& indeed the EU): Can the PM hang on? What are implications for EU if he can't? 8/
Even if Tories lose on Thurs, senior voices think Johnson will prob have opp to try relaunch his premiership in NY. One vehicle to do so will be levelling up White Paper. The vaccine campaign announced Sun eve could help. Another measure will be shake-up of No10 machine, again 9/
As of now, two important things to watch next year will be the outcome of local elections in May (assuming Johnson can make it until then) & opinion polls - & whether Tories can close the lead of up to nine points Labour has opened up in recent surveys 10/
If @BorisJohnson is able to stage a recovery - a big IF - he would be more likely to again adopt a tough stance in his dealings with EU. Put differently, his approach to Europe wd continue to be driven by short-term tactical rather than long-term & strategic considerations 11/
But perhaps the more interesting question is what if he can't? The two front-runners to succeed Johnson are prob @RishiSunak & @trussliz both of whom are on discreet manoeuvres given PMs troubles. But Patel, Javid, Hunt, Tugendhat & Harper are other names one hears too 12/
What would Sunak or Truss mean for EU? This is obviously highly speculative - but officials think a PM Sunak would likely adopt a more pragmatic approach to EU than Johnson or Truss (though I doubt he would risk alienating Tory members by advertising such in advance) 13/
Sunak's approach would likely be driven by economic reality rather than ideology - & Sunak wd be more likely than Truss to try & move on from Brexit & eventually reset relations with EU, dealing directly with EU institutions instead of just bilateral piece with member states 14/
Truss would be more hardball & much more high risk (her first major speech as Foreign Sec last week only included a passing reference to EU). The EU also sees her unvarnished populism & relative inexperience - so to extent this is the choice, it's clear who they'd prefer 15/
The relationship with France will also be critical to how UK-EU relations evolve next year. @EmmanuelMacron will likely win Presidential elections in April, but if he loses, it will be to @vpecresse. What would a President Pecresse then mean for EU-UK relations? 16/
It is very diff to answer from Pecresse’s few, vague but positive comments on EU. What we know is she has never shown interest in Macron's ideas for stronger, more “sovereign” Europe (& divisions within her own party make it awkward for her to back such ideas during campaign) 17/
She is a competent but managerial woman rather than a theorist or thinker like Macron. In @Elysee it's possible – but this is pure speculation – she would be less firm than Macron on theological-EU questions of how post-Brexit Britain should relate to the EU 18/
Senior Irish officials are also concerned that Precresse might take a much narrower French view of French interests. But if Macron wins, it's not clear relationship will be easier, even if there's a deal on Protocol, as big misunderstandings still plague UKG thinking on Fr 19/
For eg: that a more productive Anglo/French partnership will only be possible after elections because a re-elected Macron would not feel so compelled to play to the domestic gallery in his second & final term (there are few if any French votes in UK bashing) 20/
But this shows No10/UKG ongoing refusal to accept EU current interests such as integrity of single market as fundamental for Macron, rather than ongoing, irrational negativity about Brexit & a cynical attempt to play to domestic gallery which will fade after April's elections 21/
So while @10DowningStreet hopes to reset relations with Macron after April, it’s unclear if it can be achieved. While senior UK officials tell me Johnson will almost certainly offer an early olive branch if Macron wins re-election, it’s unclear whether Macon would take it 22/
Even if the Protocol & Johnson/Macron are off the front pages, there is no shortage of other events that may throw up sources of tension, such as UK divergence from EU model, financial services, data adequacy, UK-Fr tensions on migration or the UK’s admission to Horizon 23/
While the relative weakness of @BorisJohnson is overall probably good news for UK-EU relations, the turbulence in UK politics & uncertainty over PMs fate guarantees there will be much that remains uncertain & unpredictable between the two sides in 2022 24/
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
