Thread by @BenjaCurrents

PNAS 2012: "In certain cases mass vaccination can have the counterproductive effect of allowing an increase in severe disease, through reducing opportunities for immunity to be boosted through natural exposure to infection"
This is almost prophetic

pnas.org/content/109/49…

"Even booster schedules do not offer a reliable means of maintaining herd immunity. On the other hand, boosting may instead be supplied through natural exposure to infection, in which case vaccination may in fact reduce existing herd immunity."

"B. pertussis, for example, it has recently been proposed that mass immunization, eliciting waning immunity, may have reduced opportunities for natural boosting to occur, thus permitting an increase in overall disease incidence"

"The blue curve represents a vaccination program that continues indefinitely, whereas the red curve represents a program that is discontinued once local elimination of infection is first achieved. Even indefinite vaccination will not maintain herd immunity."

"The black curve illustrates the results of mass immunization, using a conventional vaccine. Despite 95% vaccine coverage, herd immunity is impermanent and there is ultimately a resurgence of infection as vaccinated individuals eventually rejoin the susceptible pool."

"Beyond a certain point, increasing vaccination coverage can be seen to increase overall disease in the population."
"In turn, these cycles emerge where vaccination reduces the force of infection to such an extent as to compromise the potential for natural boosting to occur."

"The models we present here also offer a cautionary tale: When reexposure is necessary to maintain immunity, a reactivating vaccine that offers virtually life-long individual-level protection can cause unvaccinated individuals to suffer increased disease incidence."

"This raises ethical concerns in situations where a subset of the population is unable to receive successful vaccination, whether due to genetics, cultural practices, or access to health-care services."

"The waning of natural and vaccine-induced immunity poses substantial barriers in the control of many infections, in particular by compromising the buildup of herd immunity in the population."

"Do vaccines provide partial protection to everyone (leaky) or full protection to a subset of the population (all or none)? "

"The consequences of our underlying model assumptions about immunity underscore the need for quantitative studies on the induction, maintenance, and function of immune memory... the relative roles of antigen stimulation and long-lived mem. cells,in the maintenance of immune mem"

"Another key, clinical question is the potential utility of self-boosting vaccines in maintaining mucosal vs. systemic immunity."

By the way, this study was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the NIH🤔

please comment,read or share,I think this could (perhaps) mean something important.
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