This EU push for an UNHRC mtg. and now a UNSC meeting as TPLF find themselves once again on the ropes (this time pretty comatose) is right out of the standard playbook all year.
The difference is who is in the driving seat.
High Representative Borrell was in the back seat all summer, and for a chunk of Spring and Autumn, hardly said a word about Ethiopia for months. EUSR Rondos finished up June 30. But now he’s back in the @nytimes and Borrell is tweeting like a teenager.
Friday’s Human Rights Council meeting dropped out of the sky. And the question is also why? What do they hope to achieve? Create space for TPLF to regroup?
The HR story around this Ethiopia conflict is a Pandora’s box. Once properly opened the fallout will be monumental.
The EU has a lot more at stake in an Ethiopian conflagration than the US. Could losing elements in the DC policy war now be pursuing their objectives via @JosepBorrellF Rondos and @EUSR_Weber? Talking up and freaking out EU Ministers with talks about refugee flows?
One thing is clear they don’t seem to have a clue about the negative optics from a Pan Africanist #NoMore perspective. This meeting is being cast in social media as a rerun of the infamous 19th C. Berlin Conference. How’s this going to effect the progress towards #COP27Africa
It all looks to me like a FP debacle in the making. No upside, massive downside, and given that the actual action is on the ground in Northern Ethiopia (which is a bit of a black box) unpredictable, uncontrollable and reputationally hazardous for all.
Do US-EU think they can sanction or financially coerce the 7 billion people who are not US-EU to their will?
What confuses me here is that if this is where they are heading, then decades of independent @eu_eeas thinking is going on the bonfire, just when it’s most needed,
Wonder what @FedericaMog makes of this fast approaching train wreck?
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The Director General of @WHO is once again abusing his position as a high UN Official to promote the interests of his former TPLF comrades, turned insurgents in their efforts to resurrect an over used misinformation operation focussed on the Tekeze River, for military purposes.
Since the beginning of this war in November 2020 the TPLF has been seeking to open an arms supply route from Sudan through Humera to provide materiel and fresh troops for TPLF's armed forces.
Refugee camps in Sudan have also been used to treat injured TPLF fighters, who have subsequently been caught with IDs fighting in Amhara, and to provide refuge - at the beginning of the war - to perpetrators of the Mai Kadra massacre where est. 1500+ civilians were killed.
From @xotrinx's War Update news service:
15/12 - Tigray soldiers that were UN peacekeepers defect & train TPLF rebels in Sudan
16/12 - The Sudan military moves its soldier to Ethiopian border
@washingtonpost@maxbearak@xotrinx . @maxbearak, the latest U.S. reporter on the ground near these camps tonight, with a fresh new story, which appears to be based primarily on HRW and Amnesty phone interviews with refugees in these camps will need to check his sources stories carefully.
There is a very clear pattern here, a story playbook which has been used now at least five times, on one occasion even scooping up the @USAID administrator @SamanthaJPower / @SamanthaJPower
#TigrayGenocide is trending on the eve of tomorrow's @UN_HRC meeting, and the top tweet is a brand new report from the @washingtonpost which appears to back up the new @amnesty / @hrw report that dropped today.
Oddly the tweet from @maxbearak doesn't contain the hashtag.
The report has been retweeted 43 times since publication 2 hours ago. Ten of those postings contain the hashtag. It appears the @Twitter algorithm has picked up @maxbearak's tweet via association with the hashtag.
Its a fairly long and comprehensive article based on interviews with refugees in Sudan - and unlike the Amnesty / HRW report contains comment from an Amhara official.
A flow of water from the Amazon/Tropical Atlantic across North Africa is interacting with a stationary cut off low pressure system located over Turkey.
Here is a view of the cut off low - 24 hour satellite animation from @zoom_earth
@zoom_earth Here is a close up of the other component of the weather setup - a massive stream of airborn moisture crossing the Sahara.
It appears @amnesty has learned nothing in the course of this war about the methodological issues related to the manner in which it is reporting on HR issues in Tigray/North Ethiopia. amnesty.org/en/latest/news…
In Nov and Dec, @amnesty and @hrw conducted phone IVs with 31 people, including 25 witnesses and survivors as well as relatives of those detained and expelled, about abuses by Amhara security forces against Tigrayan civilians in the towns of Adebai, Humera, and Rawyan."
This report is clearly being released today - on the eve of an urgently requested @UN_HRC meeting tomorrow in Geneva for political and diplomatic purposes. It may have even triggered the meeting.
Extreme weather in the Nth Hemisphere due to high levels of atmospheric water in 2021 look set to be maintained into 2022. Atmospheric river activity continues to have significant consequences now, and in the forecasts.
The satellite animation above shows the weather system that produced the devastating tornadoes on Friday and Saturday in the United States.
This 16 day simulation shows a @NOAA GFS PWAT (atmospheric river) forecast beginning 12th December, which shows extreme is far from over.
The consequences of this ongoing collision between tropical moisture and winter is set to bring much more precipitation through to New Year, and a very white Christmas in the North East US.