Intemperate attacks? No, @mattwridley, it is not at all intemperate to call you out as I did. It needs to happen more often. Says the purveyor of disinformation, "how DARE you accuse me of spreading disinformation!"

Time's up on that.
1/
You take issue with this tweet of mine:
2/
But what I say is simply and demonstrably true, as your own tweets illustrate. To deny this, as you have, is just further disinformation:
3/
And:
4/
And regarding my calling you "ignorant and antiscientific", that is also factually correct, no matter how much you wish to protest and claim otherwise.
5/
Case in point, which you conveniently choose not to engage with in your effort to play the victim, is your failure to reckon with the findings in my recent Science Perspective
6/

science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
Here is your tweet. Fair enough to draw attention to an error I made, but not fair enough to pretend that that tangential point in any way diminishes to main findings of the paper: no evidence of ascertainment bias in large proportion of early cases linked to Huanan...
7/
...and a really stunning pattern whereby cases *not* linked to Huanan nevertheless lived near the market. This strong evidence that the pandemic started at Huanan Market.

To ignore it, as you did, is, simply, ignorant.
8/
It is also antiscientific. Ignoring, dismissing, denigrating, and downplaying evidence that does not fit your preferred scenario of origin is the very definition of antiscientific.
9/9

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More from @MichaelWorobey

16 Dec
A follow-up to this thread about SARS-related CoVs in bats in Europe that are just one mutation away from a functional furin cleavage site (FCS).
1/
The authors of that study reported a very low frequency of mutants within the bat samples with mutations that would give them a functional furin cleavage site. @jbloom_lab has emphasized that those data cannot be taken as indicative of the presence of those mutants...
2/
Because they could simply be errors. Although both the authors and I noted this, I agree with Jesse that the sequencing data provide no evidence of the presence of the mutants.
3/
Read 17 tweets
16 Dec
🚨🚨🚨
Wow. Huge development. SARS-related CoVs in bats in Europe just one mutation away from a polybasic furin cleavage at S1/S2.

And these very bat samples might contain low-frequency variants *with* functional FCS.
1/

biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
This is work led by @c_drosten and Jan Felix Drexler, and congrats to first author @ana_lenina, and the other co-authors.

Quick background: SARS-CoV-2 is unique among SARSr-CoVs in having a short stretch of basic amino acids in its Spike protein, the FCS,
2/
This motif allows SC2 to infect lung cells and is likely a key to this virus's high transmissability. It is the secret sauce that allowed it to become a pandemic pathogen (along with other features like Spike's ability to bind well to proteins on human cells)
3/
Read 21 tweets
15 Dec
Very glad you raised this @bencowling88!

First, 9 infections by Dec 1 is the median, but the 95% HPD included 26 cases.

Second, and more importantly, I think this issue here is doubling time. Your paper below estimated a doubling time in Wuhan of 8.7 days.
1/
The fullness of time has shown that is unrealistically slow. Based on Bao et al, we estimated a median 4.1 day doubling time in Wuhan in Jan-Feb.

Nov-Dec, before anyone know what was going on, the epidemic would likely have been doubling even quicker.
2/

nature.com/articles/s4158…
Probably less than every 3 days.

But take 100 cases by Dec 1. Even assuming a 4.1 day doubling time, you're looking at 7-8 doublings in December. That means 12,800 to 25,600 infections. The WHO-China report reports 168 cases in Wuhan with symptom onset before Dec 31.
3/
Read 7 tweets
14 Dec
So sad to see you of all people, @RichardDawkins, being taken in by and amplifying the antiscientific misinformation and disinformation put out by @mattwridley regarding the origin of #SARSCoV2.
1/
If you'd be willing to read some of the scientific literature that would put you in a position to assess whether Matt is balanced and fair-minded, here are a 3 recommendations. (Also, I would encourage you to read Matt's tweets on the subject, and see how balanced they are.)
2/
Paper # is a stunning study led by Xiao Xiao and Zhaomin Zhou, with our Oxford Zoology colleagues @WildCRU_Ox. It put the lie to the Chinese delegation's assertion in the WHO-China report that no live, illegal wildlife was sold at Huanan Market.
3/

nature.com/articles/s4159…
Read 34 tweets
12 Dec
"Chinese Scientist Hits Back at [my ] Wuhan market coronavirus origin paper"

Dr. Liang Wannian, the lead scientist on the WHO-China study on SC2's origin, has badly misunderstood or misrepresented the science here. Some thoughts in a 🧵, 1/33

scmp.com/news/china/sci…
What is clear to me from Liang's comments is that the Chinese regime is *deeply* fearful of the strong evidence that places the origin of the pandemic at Huanan Market. But first it is incumbent upon me to acknowledge that he raises one important point. 2/
Although it was a tangential point in my paper in @ScienceMagazine (see below), Liang asserts that the earliest known case *was* a Mr Chen, an accountant with no connection to Huanan Market, with symptom onset of Dec 8, not 16. 3/
science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
Read 35 tweets
11 Dec
Short 🧵
No, it's not just as risky @ydeigin.
This ridiculous comment captures perfectly a growing concern I have. A much-needed discussion about making pathogen research as safe as possible is getting hijacked by the SARS-CoV-2 origin debate. 1/
People who lack expertise can sometimes make important contributions. But often those with expertise are in a better position to do so.

My daughter is going to have a complicated surgery soon, and I would like her surgeon to decide how to do it as safely as possible. 2/
I am relying on the surgeon's expertise and experience to inform his sense of proportion, something that is lacking in many believers in a lab leak origin of SARS-CoV-2 when it comes to lab safety. 3/
Read 7 tweets

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