That quote about "Vision to see, courage to buy and patience to hold" is one of my fav quotes about investing.
If I'm buying high quality companies (that I understand and intend to hold for a long-time), I've rarely regretted buying them during big drawdowns.
The important thing is to be right about the quality/durability but more importantly having the tenacity to hold them for a long time as they go thru some business volatility and lot of Market volatility.
For someone going the "individual stocks for the long-term route" they would be buying (companies in their circle of competence) for the growth in intrinsic value.
Through that long journey of holding there will be numerous bumps like
-Company specific strategy/execution issues (hopefully that they can overcome)
-Recessions
-Fed actions
-Market cycles
So it's silly to think that the Business will keep executing along the way w/o coming across few issues, w/o missing few quarterly "estimates", and especially that the Market will always favorably value your holdings.
Here's how I think about it.
For me personally there aren't more than 100 businesses that are in my true investable universe worth considering for my capital.
This is based on
-Geography (mostly US focused, unless I come across some exceptional international Cos)
-In attractive Sectors that I'm interested in following
-Having the desired Quality, Growth, Management, Financial strength and other important metrics.
So when I'm buying and holding the 2-3 dozen companies from that universe, I would like to minimize churn unless there's a valid Business reason or a good Portfolio reason.
Concentrating on the few companies that interest you, that you have conviction in and then building positions in them slowly over time as they execute (so that you buy at all types of "valuations") is one of the better ways to go about individual stock investing.
If you are really correct on the Business durability, there will be plenty of time to build the position (a critical point I missed for many years).
With that said, holding purely for the sake of LT holding is also silly.
The normal scenarios I sell are
-Position justified it's objective. This happens when something was purely bought for undervaluation reason (and not for LT growth) & valuation gap closes with recovery.
-A position bought for long-term ran up too much too quick, mainly due to Market mania rather rather than business growth. This usually happens when you buy during crashes and it recovers too high too fast. I usually trim in these scenarios rather than selling out completely.
-Selling due to thesis busted or not materializing quick enough (need to get better on the latter).
-Trimming/selling to accommodate a better
Risk/Reward position (doing it more these days).
-Trimming due to Portfolio weightage (rare).
One thing we need to avoid is treating whatever is happening today in the Market as a permanent state of affairs.
If Market is going down, thinking that it'll keep going down.
If the stock is down for a missed quarter, thinking that the story is over.
Businesses & Markets are constantly changing but if you focus primarily on the Business direction & value, and use the Market opportunities to build your pos (while also selling for the right reasons as outlined in your process), the LT results are usually quite satisfactory.
All of this is just talking out loud. Not advice.
Every investor has their own goals, risk tolerance, cash needs, reactions to bear markets, long-term objectives etc. Act accordingly.
/END.
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5 yrs from now, I would be very surprised if these businesses are not materially bigger (yes there's always execution risks to👀).
These are not recs, just a random bunch of beaten down Cos in my Portfolio being used as an example to illustrate the point of this thread. YMMV.
The Market is a pretty good judge of businesses over the long-term, but looking for clues in short term stock prices (when they are being heavily influenced by Macro factors in either direction) to decide whether or not the businesses are worth investing can be very misleading.
Things get way less noisy in the Market when you have clarity on if you want to be an
I'm definitely glad that my older/bigger positions in $AAPL $GOOG $AMZN $BRK $NKE $ISRG $SBUX $CMG etc. are acting as shock absorbers these past few weeks to the drawdowns in growth names.
With that said, let's dive in. ⬇️
It's not about how much up/down I'm from my previous purchases on the growth names (mostly done in 2019-21), or the drawdowns from 52wk highs. For me, it's more about where I think these could be in 3-5 yrs.
I'm NOT trying to predict which names are going to be
Ben Graham's "The Intelligent Investor" is a horrible book if you're using it purely for the quant formulas in today's Markets, but probably THE BEST BOOK if you're interested in learning about the core investing concepts, and eternal truths about the Markets & its participants.
Below are few of my fav quotes organized by topic.
"100 to 1 in the Stock Market" by Thomas Phelps is a great book if you put it in the right context. Not for quick/easy formulas but about the potential of buying strong/durable Co's at good prices & holding them for a long time until they remain great.
It's good to learn at least the basics of the company's actual products & competitive landscape. The stuff that actually matters way before Financial statements, Valuation & stock prices come into picture.
As much as I love SaaS economics and the dominant companies within, I'm always wary of Co.'s with point solutions (this late into SaaS trend) that haven't yet developed into a full platform or dominating a vertical.