Thread by @RamBhupatiraju

5 yrs from now, I would be very surprised if these businesses are not materially bigger (yes there's always execution risks to👀).

These are not recs, just a random bunch of beaten down Cos in my Portfolio being used as an example to illustrate the point of this thread. YMMV.

The Market is a pretty good judge of businesses over the long-term, but looking for clues in short term stock prices (when they are being heavily influenced by Macro factors in either direction) to decide whether or not the businesses are worth investing can be very misleading.

Things get way less noisy in the Market when you have clarity on if you want to be an

✔️Owner of these businesses for the long-term

or

✔️A renter of their stocks in the short-term.

✔️An owner focuses on understanding the Business, Customer value prop, Industry, Trends, Competition, Financials... first. Those things don't change every min like the stock prices do.

✔️An owner thinks thinks more broadly and more about the long-term, cares more about the few important factors that are relevant to the business and its success.

✔️An owner reads widely, relies on unfiltered data, values well researched and argued external opinions, but always relies on himself to make the final judgement (experience matters)

✔️An owner interacts with the Market only when he can acquire shares at favorable prices to him (based on his estimate of long-term intrinsic value), and rarely to sell when Market is being overly excited about his positions.

✔️An owner cares more about building up his position slowly over time (based on his thesis being proven right or getting better) into a quality company with plenty of runway ahead.

✔️An owner ignores the daily stock market noise if there's nothing materially changing about the business, and doesn't need the cash right away for other important reasons.

A trader (at least a good one)
-reads the Market and major Macro factors.
-knowledgeable in technical analysis
-base their buy/sell decisions on time tested and proven setups
-minimize their losses on the downside
-good at Portfolio and risk management

Either of these can be good if you have a proper mindset, competence and process behind it.

Trouble starts when you're still confused about what you plan to do in the Market, and act upon borrowed ideas and conviction.

In that case, the Market will find endless ways to whipsaw you. Be careful out there.

I'm only talking about investors here. If you are really interested in the business side of it, and were aware/interested in the company, we would have bought them a while ago (when it was clear that they dominate their respective markets)...

...and also plan to continue buying as they offer attractive opportunities or DCA.

It's not like we got the FOMO during the peak, bought them only once at ATHs and now bag holding.

We look way too much at 52wk lows/highs, drawdowns from ATHs as if any of them were truly reflecting the intrinsic value range of the business.

They only reflect our hindsight and wishful thinking on when we should have bought or sold to capture the largest amount of gain in the shortest amount of time.

A business is a journey and our journey as an investor in it will be rewarding when the Business is growing its true value over time and your conviction as a shareholder increases along with that (w/o being bombarded by constant noise).

With that said, below were my purchases this week (not recs). I normally don't prefer to be too public about my Portfolio actions, but do it for transparency sake during highly volatile weeks. ⬇️

12/14 : Added $DDOG at $159.25. Compared to $NET $OKTA $ZS $CRWD I was under-weight $DDOG and it deserved an add based on the recent business execution.

12/15 : Added $ROKU at $194.50. I need to stop myself from adding more $ROKU but when the stock is behaving silly (for non business/factual reasons), I'll need to be greedy.

12/16 : New $AXON at $141.90. A company I have long admired and monitored (for 5-6 yrs) but always missed in previous drawdowns as I was buying something else. Not this time.

New Cos I watched closely (but haven't finished DD) : $COIN $RBLX $CVNA

As always, I do not have a clue on what Market will do next week or in the next few months.

All I know is that
-My short term cash is not in the Market
-I'm not leveraged or need to be

-Most of the Cos in the Portfolio are quality businesses (that have good Mgmt. teams and future prospects, and no Financial risk)

-I will SLOWLY add if the Market continues to give me opportunities

-Any actions will be taken based on Company/Portfolio level analysis & reasoning and not because of Mr. Market forcing my hand.

Boring disclosure : None of this is advice. DYDD.

/END. HAGW 👊