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Sergey Radchenko Profile picture
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16 Dec, 5 tweets, 2 min read
You thought Putin is an Internet phantom but he still meets with real people, today apparently with Mongolia's President U. Khurelsukh: ikon.mn/n/2ett. Mongolia, the only (relatively) stable democracy in the broader region, has adroitly managed ties with both neighbours.
But it's always interesting to see where the winds are blowing. The key task for Ulaanbaatar is extracting Russia's support for various transit corridors. They scored a big gas pipeline some time ago (still a little bit in the air it seems)...
But here Khurelsukh was pushing for rail links, connecting China and Russia through eastern and western parts of Mongolia. Seems unlikely but, then, I thought the gas pipeline was unlikely but they seemingly were able to secure the Kremlin's support for it at last.
Khurelsukh paid Putin with assurances of fraternal love and friendship, and praised Russia's contribution to defeating the Nazis. Pushing all the right buttons. Wisely, I'd add. The Russian read-out: kremlin.ru/events/preside….
This is btw Khurelsukh's first trip abroad since he was elected President. Goes to Russia - of course he would. No one cancelled geopolitics.

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More from @DrRadchenko

Sergey Radchenko Profile picture
15 Dec
So in view of today's conversation between Putin and Xi Jinping (and also as a reality check against the backdrop of exciting commentary that China and Russia have become allies), let's briefly talk about the difference between an alliance and an alignment.
An alliance entails a commitment to come to mutual defence. NATO is an alliance. This commitment is contained in Article 5. The Sino-Soviet treaty of 1950 was an alliance. Article 1 committed parties to provide "immediate military and other aid" in case of attacks by a 3rd party.
Alliances go deeper and wider, and, in NATO's case, for example, include centralised command, interoperability etc. These are secondary, however, to the basic commitment to enter the fray in case of a military conflict. You don't have this with Russia/China.
Read 8 tweets
Sergey Radchenko Profile picture
14 Dec
This here is extremely interesting from Putin's spokesman Dmitrii Peskov: tass.com/politics/13752…. In commenting on the forthcoming conversation between Putin and Xi Jinping (Dec. 15), he called the Chinese "allies."
Hang on a minute - who? Allies? Have Russia and China become allies? What's going here?
The simple answer is no. Russia and China do not have a treaty of alliance, and, in particular, any commitment to mutual defence in case of a conflict with a third party. This provision was contained in the 1950 Sino-Soviet treaty of alliance (Article 1).
Read 9 tweets
Sergey Radchenko Profile picture
14 Dec
Ha. That's worth reading. Putin's speech at the meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council the other day: en.kremlin.ru/events/preside….
Putin praises the wonders of Eurasian economic integration. Like how about the wonderful new app called "Travel Without Covid" that helps the movement of people.
Of course you are all wondering whether he addressed this important new initiative that facilitates the movement of migrants to Russia. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…. The answer is: ummm, no.
Read 6 tweets
Sergey Radchenko Profile picture
2 Dec
A few days after Fyodor Lukyanov's piece on the "Finlandization" of Ukraine, Lavrov proposes a "not one inch to the East" treaty at an OSCE conference in Sweden. Lots of interesting symbolism here. Won't fly very far (I mean his proposal). That's because the times are different.
When Gorbachev missed his opportunity to have Baker's "not one inch to the East" promise codified in a legally-minding agreement (on Feb. 9, 1990), the opportunity was actually there. That was because the USSR was no longer an enemy. Gorbachev could ride far on that goodwill.
But what Lavrov is peddling is much more analogous to Moscow's proposals of the 1950s like Stalin's note on Germany, or Moscow's calls for dismantling military blocs in Europe, or various Soviet universal disarmament initiatives: just propaganda (which they know is propaganda).
Read 4 tweets
Sergey Radchenko Profile picture
2 Dec
Current commuter read. Great stuff. Hard to disagree with Indyk that Kissinger outplayed the Soviets in the Middle East. Very skillfully done.
Sort of laughed out loud reading here about Obama’s meeting with Mahmoud Abbas. Indyk’s book is a memoir of a kind. He goes back and forth between Kissinger and the later years.
Generally very complimentary, Indyk can be critical of Kissinger's performance. Like here he argues Kissinger did not take Sadat seriously and so failed to avert the Yom Kippur War.
Read 5 tweets
Sergey Radchenko Profile picture
1 Dec
An interesting statement. My SAIS American Foreign Policy class (some of whom are on Twitter): note the language. Remember we talked about this yesterday in the context of "Finlandization" of Ukraine, as proposed by Fyodor Lukyanov and recently also by @LievenAnatol in his piece.
Looks like a big middle finger to Putin from @jensstoltenberg, which will certainly feed Ukraine's hopes of eventually qualifying for NATO membership. Interesting, esp. given that there's no real intention in NATO to allow Ukraine to join.
It's the principle of Russia's veto that @jensstoltenberg objects to here even if this veto may never have to be used. Interestingly, it won't be used because it exists; i.e, NATO will probably be unwilling to find out whether Russia means business by putting the veto to a test.
Read 5 tweets

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