Yes but the baseline before the pandemic was 19% – not much of a change.
Whenever I see pandemic-related suicide statistics, I always check the 2019 baseline, and the upwards changes, if any, are most often a fraction of what the 2021 number alone would imply.
I’m not saying that the 1% increase isn’t important, though perhaps it’s noise / due to different sampling.
I’m saying that defaulting to the easy explanation “suicides are because of the restrictions” leads to hiding much the real problems responsible for most of the deaths.
If you’re aware of any significant and statistically-solid increase in suicides *compared to a recent pre-pandemic baseline* please let me know.
Another example. Yes, suicides in Gauteng increased 90% during the pandemic, but it seems it was already a trend before the pandemic.
Assuming the pandemic is the only culprit might prevent addressing more significant root causes.
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Requirements:
- my grandma must be able to use it
- no risk of false positive following parts reuse
A possible idea. Germany’s bottles recycling system seems a good starting point (when you purchase a bottle, eg water from the grocery store, you pay a $X tax. When you bring it back empty, they must give you the $X back). Ofc should be cleaned/quarantined appropriately.
A reader suggested that Tomas chose extreme numbers to "make the Paradox" work. So I repeated the calculation with less extreme numbers, and the Simpson Paradox is still there
It matters! Because if you were already immune, your chances of dying just went up.
100 out of 120 participants to a Christmas dinner infected with Omicron. They were all vaccinated and tested negative before the dinner (according to the company). One attendee was back from SA 🇿🇦
💯 even if true that variants get trade off lethality for transmissibility over time, a hypothetical variant that is 20% less lethal but 20% more contagious kills more people than the original virus (because cases compound → larger exposure → more total deaths)
(I didn’t check the estimate Giullaume quoted; here, I was just commenting on his general point.)
That said, I question the hypothesis that variants always trade off lethality for transmissibility. While I understand that more transmissible variants get selected, I don’t see why a variant couldn’t be both more transmissible and more lethal.