Yes, it’s a lot of plastic. But I struggle to think of a better way to make a test that can be reliably used by anyone.

Any ideas?
Requirements:
- my grandma must be able to use it
- no risk of false positive following parts reuse
A possible idea. Germany’s bottles recycling system seems a good starting point (when you purchase a bottle, eg water from the grocery store, you pay a $X tax. When you bring it back empty, they must give you the $X back). Ofc should be cleaned/quarantined appropriately.
The problem with the above is that, I suppose, it would cost more to clean and recycle than to simply mold a new case.

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More from @DellAnnaLuca

19 Dec
The London Ambulance Service operates 450 ambulances; 2500 extra calls a day means an extra ~5 calls per ambulance.

Actually, 100 can’t be operated because staff is sick. So it’s an extra 7 calls per ambulance.

#bottlenecks
Meanwhile, three months ago
The ambulance service asked help to the fire brigades, but their staff is sick too.
Read 5 tweets
17 Dec
Yes but the baseline before the pandemic was 19% – not much of a change.

Whenever I see pandemic-related suicide statistics, I always check the 2019 baseline, and the upwards changes, if any, are most often a fraction of what the 2021 number alone would imply.
The source for the previous data point Image
I’m not saying that the 1% increase isn’t important, though perhaps it’s noise / due to different sampling.

I’m saying that defaulting to the easy explanation “suicides are because of the restrictions” leads to hiding much the real problems responsible for most of the deaths.
Read 5 tweets
15 Dec
Simpson’s paradox might have omicron appear less deadly even if it is more deadly
A reader suggested that Tomas chose extreme numbers to "make the Paradox" work. So I repeated the calculation with less extreme numbers, and the Simpson Paradox is still there
It matters! Because if you were already immune, your chances of dying just went up.

(and so did if you weren’t)
Read 4 tweets
13 Dec
OMICRON EXPECTED DEATHS

I'm reading news such as "no one died of omicron in Europe yet, so it's milder."

However, omicron is recent, so is the lack of deaths an artifact of the simple fact that it takes time to die?

Let's figure it out by running some numbers.
Most of the current omicron cases got infected recently, so even those who would die eventually are not died yet.

The median delay between COVID infection and death is 11 days (computed pre-vaccine). Let's assume is correct.
Today is the 13th, so we want to know how many cases there were on the 2nd of December. According to ECDC, there were 79 cases.

That said, there might have been more cases than detected; let's say 4x. Total infected: 500.
Read 9 tweets
4 Dec
100 out of 120 participants to a Christmas dinner infected with Omicron. They were all vaccinated and tested negative before the dinner (according to the company). One attendee was back from SA 🇿🇦

A mild super-spreading event.

Source: expressen.se/nyheter/sa-ble… via @gianlucac1
"The person who is believed to have caused the spread of infection is an employee who returned from South Africa a few days earlier."
Read 5 tweets
27 Nov
💯 even if true that variants get trade off lethality for transmissibility over time, a hypothetical variant that is 20% less lethal but 20% more contagious kills more people than the original virus (because cases compound → larger exposure → more total deaths)
(I didn’t check the estimate Giullaume quoted; here, I was just commenting on his general point.)
That said, I question the hypothesis that variants always trade off lethality for transmissibility. While I understand that more transmissible variants get selected, I don’t see why a variant couldn’t be both more transmissible and more lethal.
Read 7 tweets

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