1/6

Exactly one year ago TSLA was added to the S&P 500.

Studies show that you should buy the stock getting kicked out, as all the bad news is in the price, and sell the stock going in, as all the good news is in the price.

This idea worked again.
2/6

Nancy Pelosi's husband Paul BOT TLSA options two days after it was added to the S&P 500.

Paul Pelosi bought on Dec. 22. [2020]. ... 25 call options strike of $500 expiring on 3/18/22.
barrons.com/articles/nancy…
3/6

Here is a chart of the TLSA 500 calls expiring on March 18, 2022.

He paid about $257 for each option on 12/22/20.

By mid-May they were down 50%. Today that position is up 71%.
4/6

Pelosi BOT TLSA options ywo days after they went into the index, only to watch them go down for six months and lose him half his money.

If he really has terrible retail trader traits, he rationalizing he was a "long-term investor" ... in leveraged options! Then he did ok.
5/6

But he bought leveraged options the day after they went into the index probably thinking, "good news means the stock will go up tomorrow and the next day."

Of course, that was not what happened for the next six months.
6/6

In reality, if Pelosi gave up on trading and plowed every dollar in SPY, he would probably be ahead.

Amazing that a guy that is constantly fed inside information doesn't know how to make real money in a bull market.

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More from @biancoresearch

19 Dec
1/13

How big a deal is inflation? Some new news this morning.

In Washington this is big deal for Biden and his 2022 agenda.

wsj.com/articles/manch…
2/13

Manchin has cited a range of reasons for Democrats to not forge ahead with their ambitious package since the summer, urging a "strategic pause" since August.

But inflation is at the top of his list.
nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1…
3/13

Manchin even cited Powell's testimony about inflation.

Do not underestimate the impact inflation is having on the 40% that rent and have little to no savings.

This is why we get this incredible position by a political party

They want rate hikes!

ft.com/content/1ae49b…
Read 13 tweets
18 Dec
1/14

COVID update

3 things at the top.

1. This is not what I want, or think is right, it is what I fear is coming.

2. Rising cases cause POLITICAL panic and drive policy (read: restrictions).

3. Economic restrictions mean inflation; they hit supply more than demand.
2/14

Start with South Africa and the rest of Africa, cases are going parabolic.

South Africa cases are up 100x in a month and the rest of Africa is following close behind.

This is the source of Omicron and it is not slowing yet. ImageImage
3/14

Asia, the beginning of the supply chain, and it is trending higher.

Most of these countries used the Sinovac vaccine that has been shown ineffective against Omicron.

Many also have a zero COVID policy. One case and they lock down. Image
Read 17 tweets
16 Dec
1/4

Citigroup Inc., Carlyle Group Inc., Millennium Management and Citadel, Ken Griffin’s hedge-fund firm, are allowing remote work through the holiday in response to the latest rise in infections.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 4 tweets
16 Dec
1/4

The message from the BoE and the ECB this morning is inflation is transitory.

BoE head Andrew Bailey is on TV right now saying that while they hike rates today and will probably need to do more, inflation will peak at 6% in April. aka, transitory.
2/4

To summarize the Lagarde/ECB presser, inflation is higher than we thought, it is possible it could go even higher. But do not worry, inflation is transitory, and we see no need to address it by raising rates in 2022.
3/4

And as I detailed yesterday, the consensus opinion on Wall Street is STILL inflation is transitory.

Read 5 tweets
15 Dec
1/4

The BofA Fund Mgt Survey shows 55% say inflation is transitory, down from 61% in Nov.

A CNBC survey, also out yesterday, shows consistent results. 59% say inflation as transitory, down from 64% at the beginning of November.

Transitory is STILL the consensus!
2/4

Since the majority of the BofA survey sees inflation as transitory, it should come as little surprise that 78% think the Fed will hike two or fewer times in 2022.

The CNBC survey expects the funds rate to be 0.72% year-end 2022. This rounds up to three rate hikes next year.
3/4

As the table shows, the market is pricing in three rate hikes next year and a 38% chance of a fourth rate hike in February 2023.

In other words, the market is pricing in roughly 3.4 hikes in the next 14 months, more aggressive than the results of the surveys above.
Read 4 tweets
13 Dec
1/15

As I noted before, TIME's Person of the Year is a good contrarian indicator.

Elon Musk was named 2021 PoY earlier today.

So, what is the history of this indicator? A thread to outline.

time.com/person-of-the-…
2/15

First, the idea of Magazine cover as contrarian indicators, and especially TIME PoY was developed by one of Wall Street's greatest thinkers, Paul Macrae Montgomery.

I was honored to call him a friend.
@ritholtz remembrance in 2014

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
3/15

Biden Harris was PoY last year (2020).

One year later and Biden's approval rating is in the tank and Ds are figuring out what to do with Harris
Read 15 tweets

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