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Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
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16 Dec, 4 tweets, 2 min read
1/4
Citigroup Inc., Carlyle Group Inc., Millennium Management and Citadel, Ken Griffin’s hedge-fund firm, are allowing remote work through the holiday in response to the latest rise in infections.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/4
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3/4
NYC Mayor's Health Advisor
4/4
Remember the country is governed by two types ...

* Blue State Karens
* Red State Rons

While the Red Rons will resist restrictions, there are enough Blue Karens that will demand restrictions that it will impact the entire economy.

Who are these Blue Karens?

• • •

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More from @biancoresearch

Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
18 Dec
1/14

COVID update

3 things at the top.

1. This is not what I want, or think is right, it is what I fear is coming.

2. Rising cases cause POLITICAL panic and drive policy (read: restrictions).

3. Economic restrictions mean inflation; they hit supply more than demand.
2/14

Start with South Africa and the rest of Africa, cases are going parabolic.

South Africa cases are up 100x in a month and the rest of Africa is following close behind.

This is the source of Omicron and it is not slowing yet. ImageImage
3/14

Asia, the beginning of the supply chain, and it is trending higher.

Most of these countries used the Sinovac vaccine that has been shown ineffective against Omicron.

Many also have a zero COVID policy. One case and they lock down. Image
Read 17 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
17 Dec
1/6
Exactly one year ago TSLA was added to the S&P 500.

Studies show that you should buy the stock getting kicked out, as all the bad news is in the price, and sell the stock going in, as all the good news is in the price.

This idea worked again. Image
2/6
Nancy Pelosi's husband Paul BOT TLSA options two days after it was added to the S&P 500.

Paul Pelosi bought on Dec. 22. [2020]. ... 25 call options strike of $500 expiring on 3/18/22.
barrons.com/articles/nancy…
3/6
Here is a chart of the TLSA 500 calls expiring on March 18, 2022.

He paid about $257 for each option on 12/22/20.

By mid-May they were down 50%. Today that position is up 71%. Image
Read 6 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
16 Dec
1/4
The message from the BoE and the ECB this morning is inflation is transitory.

BoE head Andrew Bailey is on TV right now saying that while they hike rates today and will probably need to do more, inflation will peak at 6% in April. aka, transitory.
2/4
To summarize the Lagarde/ECB presser, inflation is higher than we thought, it is possible it could go even higher. But do not worry, inflation is transitory, and we see no need to address it by raising rates in 2022.
3/4
And as I detailed yesterday, the consensus opinion on Wall Street is STILL inflation is transitory.

Read 5 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
15 Dec
1/4
The BofA Fund Mgt Survey shows 55% say inflation is transitory, down from 61% in Nov.

A CNBC survey, also out yesterday, shows consistent results. 59% say inflation as transitory, down from 64% at the beginning of November.

Transitory is STILL the consensus!
2/4
Since the majority of the BofA survey sees inflation as transitory, it should come as little surprise that 78% think the Fed will hike two or fewer times in 2022.

The CNBC survey expects the funds rate to be 0.72% year-end 2022. This rounds up to three rate hikes next year.
3/4
As the table shows, the market is pricing in three rate hikes next year and a 38% chance of a fourth rate hike in February 2023.

In other words, the market is pricing in roughly 3.4 hikes in the next 14 months, more aggressive than the results of the surveys above.
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
13 Dec
1/15

As I noted before, TIME's Person of the Year is a good contrarian indicator.

Elon Musk was named 2021 PoY earlier today.

So, what is the history of this indicator? A thread to outline.

time.com/person-of-the-…
2/15

First, the idea of Magazine cover as contrarian indicators, and especially TIME PoY was developed by one of Wall Street's greatest thinkers, Paul Macrae Montgomery.

I was honored to call him a friend.
@ritholtz remembrance in 2014

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
3/15

Biden Harris was PoY last year (2020).

One year later and Biden's approval rating is in the tank and Ds are figuring out what to do with Harris
Read 15 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
12 Dec
1/10

Some concerning developments on COVID in the last few hours.

A thread to explain, and a clarification ... none of what is explain below is what I want, rather it is what I fear is coming.
2/10

*S. AFRICA DAILY COVID CASES AT 37,875, BREAKING PREVIOUS RECORD

This chart does NOT include the headline above (Johns Hopkins will update all countries this evening).

A nearly 38,000 daily case count will shoot off the top and the chart will need to be rescaled.
3/10

See the rest of Africa, their case counts are also starting to go vertical (orange line).

It will be interesting to see what this data points shows when updated tonight and the coming days.
Read 12 tweets

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