1/14
COVID update
3 things at the top.
1. This is not what I want, or think is right, it is what I fear is coming.
2. Rising cases cause POLITICAL panic and drive policy (read: restrictions).
3. Economic restrictions mean inflation; they hit supply more than demand.
COVID update
3 things at the top.
1. This is not what I want, or think is right, it is what I fear is coming.
2. Rising cases cause POLITICAL panic and drive policy (read: restrictions).
3. Economic restrictions mean inflation; they hit supply more than demand.
2/14
Start with South Africa and the rest of Africa, cases are going parabolic.
South Africa cases are up 100x in a month and the rest of Africa is following close behind.
This is the source of Omicron and it is not slowing yet.
Start with South Africa and the rest of Africa, cases are going parabolic.
South Africa cases are up 100x in a month and the rest of Africa is following close behind.
This is the source of Omicron and it is not slowing yet.
3/14
Asia, the beginning of the supply chain, and it is trending higher.
Most of these countries used the Sinovac vaccine that has been shown ineffective against Omicron.
Many also have a zero COVID policy. One case and they lock down.
Asia, the beginning of the supply chain, and it is trending higher.
Most of these countries used the Sinovac vaccine that has been shown ineffective against Omicron.
Many also have a zero COVID policy. One case and they lock down.
4/14
China is the biggest country at the beginning of the supply chain.
No protection against Omicron (Sinovac) and they are very aggressive in there zero COVID policy. 1 case and everything is shut!
Yesterday they spiked to the second highest cases since Jan.
China is the biggest country at the beginning of the supply chain.
No protection against Omicron (Sinovac) and they are very aggressive in there zero COVID policy. 1 case and everything is shut!
Yesterday they spiked to the second highest cases since Jan.
5/14
China does not screw around. Everything goes to zero when cases are found.
So, while the China chart above is "only" 136 cases, that is historically been enough to close everything and weld people in their house.
qz.com/2101722/china-…
China does not screw around. Everything goes to zero when cases are found.
So, while the China chart above is "only" 136 cases, that is historically been enough to close everything and weld people in their house.
qz.com/2101722/china-…
6/14
Europe is another giant problem. Every day they make new all-time highs.
UK is going vertical
Europe is another giant problem. Every day they make new all-time highs.
UK is going vertical
9/14
Europe is important because where one goes the other follows.
As I have been arguing for weeks, the history of this chart suggests we have to expect US cases to challenge or exceed the all-time peak over the next several weeks.
If they do, do we see a UK style panic here?
Europe is important because where one goes the other follows.
As I have been arguing for weeks, the history of this chart suggests we have to expect US cases to challenge or exceed the all-time peak over the next several weeks.
If they do, do we see a UK style panic here?
10/14
Turning to the US, cases "broke out" yesterday to 124k (orange), the highest since Labor Day.
The trend is up
Turning to the US, cases "broke out" yesterday to 124k (orange), the highest since Labor Day.
The trend is up
11/14
NYC is spiking. (Mar 24 was not a case spike but a revision to correct prior data, which is not revised)
NYC is spiking. (Mar 24 was not a case spike but a revision to correct prior data, which is not revised)
12/14
The fear is the US is undercounting cases as there is a shortage of testing kits.
22-months into a pandemic and we cannot even get this right!
nytimes.com/2021/12/17/us/…
The fear is the US is undercounting cases as there is a shortage of testing kits.
22-months into a pandemic and we cannot even get this right!
nytimes.com/2021/12/17/us/…
13/14
Want a reason for politicians to panic and start restricting?
COVID bed usage in the Midwest and Northeast is at a new record.
Of course, it is cold in the north, and everyone is inside.
In the south it is still outdoor weather and COVID bed usage is way down.
Want a reason for politicians to panic and start restricting?
COVID bed usage in the Midwest and Northeast is at a new record.
Of course, it is cold in the north, and everyone is inside.
In the south it is still outdoor weather and COVID bed usage is way down.
14/14
Northern COVID bed usage and the expected rise in cases will lead to more strident talk about COVID restrictions.
"Blue Karens" will demand it while "Red Rons" will push back.
Karens will get their way and restrict production/supply enough to cause even MORE inflation.
Northern COVID bed usage and the expected rise in cases will lead to more strident talk about COVID restrictions.
"Blue Karens" will demand it while "Red Rons" will push back.
Karens will get their way and restrict production/supply enough to cause even MORE inflation.
Getting brow beat with a charts/stats arguing we will not see panic when cases rise.
They are arguing what they want, not what will happen.
This is also the leading cause of investors losses ... demanding markets to do what you want instead of understanding what they will do.
They are arguing what they want, not what will happen.
This is also the leading cause of investors losses ... demanding markets to do what you want instead of understanding what they will do.
If you want an argue that will sway me ... tell me why Newsome, Pritzker, Fauci, Biden, etc will start a speech with ...
"Yes, we are seeing an all-time high in cases but here is why we will not impose any restrictions this time around."
"Yes, we are seeing an all-time high in cases but here is why we will not impose any restrictions this time around."
As I wrote the above, this crossed as a screaming red headline.
Remember Dutch politicians are reasonable and considered, unlike our reactionary pols.
So, what we will do we get to record cases????
*NETHERLANDS ANNOUNCES STRICT LOCKDOWN AS OMICRON SPREADS
Remember Dutch politicians are reasonable and considered, unlike our reactionary pols.
So, what we will do we get to record cases????
*NETHERLANDS ANNOUNCES STRICT LOCKDOWN AS OMICRON SPREADS
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