Thread by @startupjunta

It's a bubble brewing in quick commerce groceries w swiggy vs zepto vs blinkit vs dunzo and ola & big basket to follow. #grocery #startup

Things that aren't making sense

I understand that quick comm will largely be a metro play. In tier 1 and further, these platforms will adopt an express or same day delivery method. The concept of 10 or 30 min delivery in let's say a Lucknow would never give you a positive unit eco.

My reasoning stems from not having enough density in a Tier 1, 2....to build a dark store and do single order deliveries to these cities. So unless proved wrong, this model would be a metro play.

Now let's take a metro for ex. With the # of platforms eyeing for getting selected when I need one of the 1k SKUs, each of them will be hoarding stocks in thier dark stores in my neighborhood.

So in Bglr, there would be a totality of 200 dark stores stocking these SKUs bwteen these platforms. With divided vols, assuming its gonna b a long battle as most of these have a massive war chest, the cost of rental, operational cost, product discard, is going to deep bleed

I'm not even adding up delivery costs, assuming they will recoup from customers - although given the heated play, no one will jump first to charge. The whole jazz of AI and ML enabling speedier and efficient execution is not going to sail the boat to the coast.

So my big ques is who amongst these will jump off this mad wagon first bcos there is zero possibility over this 4-5 platform race going on for many quarters and chances of consolidation barring zepto are nil. #SaturdayThoughts